On Thursday (11th), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Standard conditions of Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2021), which proposes to guide photovoltaic enterprises to reduce photovoltaic manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality and reduce production costs. For new construction and expansion of polysilicon manufacturing projects, the minimum capital ratio is 30%, and for other new construction and expansion photovoltaic manufacturing projects, the minimum capital ratio is 20%.
At the same time, the document puts forward the conditions to be met for existing photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises and project products, new and reconstruction and expansion enterprises and project products, among which, the average photoelectric conversion efficiency of the existing project products of polysilicon cells and monocrystalline silicon batteries (calculated on the basis of positive efficiency of double-sided cells) is not less than 19% and 22.5%, respectively. The average photoelectric conversion efficiency of newly built, reconstruction and expansion enterprises and project products is not less than 20.5% and 23%, respectively.
A senior investor in the photovoltaic industry once told Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the industry has a technical iteration almost every 2-3 years. Photovoltaic cells as one of the core links of the industry chain, the most key indicator is the battery conversion efficiency, but it is not easy to improve 1%.
In recent years, with the bottleneck of photoelectric conversion efficiency of PREC battery becoming more and more prominent, domestic industrial chain giants have invested heavily in the research and development of new battery technology. The data show that at present, the average mass production efficiency of TOPCon is 22.5% Mur23%, the highest mass production efficiency and conversion efficiency are 24.5% and 24.9%, the average mass production efficiency of the pilot line of HJT is generally about 24%, and the highest efficiency is 25.2% of that of Junshi, which may reach 28% in the future.
At the end of last year, Aikang Technology's first heterojunction battery (G1MagneMBB) sample production line was put off the production line, with a battery efficiency of 24.59%, and a record of the highest photoelectric conversion efficiency in the sample production line. The company's Changxing base's first imported heterojunction 220MW equipment production line has been mass produced, and the second 260MW domestic production line has also begun to install equipment.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that all aspects of heterojunction equipment have been localized in 2020, and the current cost of single GW equipment has been reduced to 450 million yuan. With the development of multi-gate and silver-coated copper technology, the consumption of heterojunction silver paste will be further reduced, and the comprehensive cost is expected to reach the level of PERC battery within 2 years.
In terms of institutions, Zheshang Securities and Ping an Securities said in a report released on December 10, 2020 that they were optimistic about the development of HJT in a short period of time. The former pointed out that 2020-2021 will be the first year of HJT investment, and 2022 will enter a rapid outbreak phase, while the latter believes that HJT will become the protagonist of photovoltaic cells in 2021.
HJT equipment is expected to "let a hundred flowers blossom"
Under the tide of technology iteration, the equipment often comes first. On this basis, a number of institutions have reported that at the moment when HJT enters the tuyere, the photovoltaic equipment industry has also ushered in new opportunities.
The above report of Ping an Securities pointed out that, on the one hand, more and more photovoltaic battery enterprises will enter the field of HJT, and HJT is expected to open a tender of 10GW magnitude; on the other hand, with the construction of four HJT production lines of Tongwei 1GW, domestic HJT equipment manufacturers have experienced industrialization "big training". According to this, it is estimated that from 2021 to 2024, the HJT equipment market will be 4.5 billion yuan, 16 billion yuan, 21 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan respectively, with a cumulative scale of more than 70 billion yuan in four years.
It is understood that HJT equipment mainly includes cleaning cashmere equipment, PECVD equipment, PVD/RPD equipment, screen printing equipment, accounting for about 15%, 50%, 20% and 15% of the equipment investment respectively. At present, domestic equipment manufacturers have sprung up rapidly, laying out core equipment such as PECVD one after another, which will become a breakthrough in the industry. According to the above-mentioned report of Zheshang Securities, the market space of HJT equipment is expected to reach 41.2 billion yuan in 2025, of which the scale of PECVD equipment will reach 20.6 billion yuan.
According to the judgment of Zheshang Securities, in the next two years, the HJT equipment industry will "let a hundred flowers blossom" and multi-technological routes and equipment will coexist, and the industry may become a competitive pattern of several oligopolies:
(1) domestic battery equipment manufacturers (Mai Wei, Jiejia, Jinchen, Junshi, ideal) have laid out different working procedures in HJT to achieve small batch order sales. At present, the overall competition pattern is not clear.
(2) at present, Maiwei has launched HJT2.0 products, Jiejia Weichuang has achieved factory delivery of PECVD equipment customers, and Jinchen PECVD is progressing smoothly and is expected to deliver customer testing in the first half of next year. As the leader of the old slicing machine, CNC is expected to continue its competitive advantage in the future thin-chip process of N-type silicon wafers.
It should be pointed out that HJT, which is different from PERC battery, requires higher process and equipment. Ping an Securities pointed out that in HJT equipment, whether amorphous silicon coating equipment (PECVD), TCO coating equipment (PVD&RPD) or metallization process equipment (screen printing press), the technical route and competition pattern are not yet stable, and HJT equipment companies have both opportunities and risks.
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