JPMorgan:, a new round of commodity "supercycle" has begun.

Published: Feb 12, 2021 21:16
[JPMorgan: 's new commodities "supercycle" has begun] Marko Kolanovic, a well-known quantitative analyst at JPMorgan, said that a new commodity "supercycle" has begun. This means that commodity prices will face a new upward trend. As in the last cycle, capital flows could exacerbate commodities, he added.

Marko Kolanovic, a leading quantitative analyst at JPMorgan, said a new commodity "supercycle" had begun. This means that commodity prices will face a new upward trend.

At present, commodity prices have risen, especially oil prices. Analysts pointed out that commodity prices will be driven by economic recovery after the novel coronavirus epidemic, ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, a weak dollar, rising inflation and environmental policies.

"We believe the inflationary trend is reversing, which poses a significant risk to multiple portfolios," he added.

He said it would be the fifth so-called supercycle in the past 100 years, which began in 1996 and peaked in 2008 thanks to factors such as the rise of China's economy, the recovery of the US economy and a weaker dollar. Commodities then experienced 12 years of shock and decline, during which there was a lack of upward momentum due to factors such as an oversupply of shale oil and a rising dollar, and last year's novel coronavirus epidemic had a huge impact on crude oil demand.

As in the last cycle, capital flows could exacerbate commodities, he added.

So far, Brent crude futures have risen for nine consecutive days, the longest since January 10, 2019, and have surged 218 per cent from their April 2020 low. Copper futures closed Wednesday at their highest level since Oct. 5, 2012.

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