Macro Roundup (Feb 10)

Published: Feb 10, 2021 09:00
The dollar fell to two-week lows on Tuesday in choppy trading, led by losses against the yen and euro, as risk sentiment improved in the afternoon session amid stock market gains and as U.S. Treasury yields rose.

SHANGHAI, Feb 10 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar fell to two-week lows on Tuesday in choppy trading, led by losses against the yen and euro, as risk sentiment improved in the afternoon session amid stock market gains and as U.S. Treasury yields rose.

On Wall Street, stocks snapped a six-day winning streak, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 10 points.

The Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, gaining 0.15% as Facebook, Microsoft and Netflix all closed higher.

Oil hit 13-month highs on Tuesday with the Brent benchmark staying above $60 a barrel, supported by supply cuts, a weak dollar and optimism over a recovery in fuel demand.

Brent crude futures for April settled 53 cents, or 0.88%, higher at $61.09 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled 39 cents, or 0.67%, higher at $58.36 per barrel. Both contracts had hit their highest since January 2020 earlier on Tuesday after having risen for six straight sessions.

Top exporter Saudi Arabia is curbing supply in February and March, on top of cuts by producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, prompting forecasts of a supply deficit this year.

Also, Libya’s output has fallen to 1.04 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.3 million bpd late last year due to an ongoing strike by Petroleum Facilities Guards, a Libyan oil source said on Monday.

Gold jumped 1% to a one-week high on Tuesday, as a sliding dollar and hopes of more U.S. fiscal stimulus bolstered its appeal among investors seeking an inflation hedge.

Spot gold was up 0.3% to $1,835.24 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Feb. 2 at $1,848.40 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.2% to $1,837.50.

In Europe, the coronavirus pandemic and vaccine rollout continue to dominate headlines and market sentiment. Health experts and government officials were rallying round the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford vaccine on Monday after widespread concern following a small-scale trial that showed it offered “minimal protection” against mild disease caused by the South African variant of the virus.

With its vaccination drive falling far behind, the EU has finalized a deal with Pfizer and BioNTech for the supply of an additional 300 million doses of their Covid vaccine, a European Commission spokesman said on Monday.

Investors are also monitoring process on a Covid-19 stimulus package. House Democrats on Monday unveiled the details of a relief proposal that included $1,400 direct checks with faster phase-outs than previous bills.

Key economic data slated for release today include Chinese, German and US consumer price index (CPI) for January, and crude inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Platinum Hits 11-Week High
41 mins ago
Platinum Hits 11-Week High
Read More
Platinum Hits 11-Week High
Platinum Hits 11-Week High
Platinum futures climbed above USD 1,870/oz on August 21, reaching an 11-week high as a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for precious metals supported prices. The US dollar came under pressure amid concerns over the US fiscal outlook and investor scepticism about the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme. Lower yields earlier in the week also supported demand for non-yielding assets, while expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged in September provided additional support to precious metals. Platinum also continued to benefit from a tight global supply-demand balance, with persistent market deficits and low inventories limiting available metal. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices added to inflation and economic uncertainty, supporting safe-haven and hedging demand. The combination of constrained physical supply and supportive macroeconomic conditions continues to underpin the platinum market, although movements in the US dollar, Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations remain key factors for prices in the near term.
41 mins ago
Higher Platinum Prices Support African Rainbow Minerals Earnings
53 mins ago
Higher Platinum Prices Support African Rainbow Minerals Earnings
Read More
Higher Platinum Prices Support African Rainbow Minerals Earnings
Higher Platinum Prices Support African Rainbow Minerals Earnings
[SMM Flash] Higher platinum group metals (PGM) prices are expected to lift African Rainbow Minerals’ (ARM) full-year headline earnings, despite weaker iron ore prices and the impact of a stronger South African rand. ARM expects headline earnings for the year ended June 2026 to rise 12%–22% to R3.02 billion–R3.29 billion, from R2.7 billion a year earlier. The improvement was mainly driven by higher PGM prices, which more than offset pressure from the iron ore business. Headline earnings per share are expected to increase to 1,544–1,682 cents, compared with 1,379 cents previously. ARM is scheduled to release its full-year results on September 4. The stronger PGM environment comes as ARM expands its exposure to platinum production. The company approved a R15.2 billion investment in the Bokoni platinum project in Limpopo, including the refurbishment of a 60,000-tonne-per-month concentrator and construction of a new 120,000-tonne-per-month facility. First production is targeted for the first half of FY2028, with steady-state PGM output expected at 350,000–400,000 oz/year from 2032.
53 mins ago
Palladium Extends Gains to One-Week High
59 mins ago
Palladium Extends Gains to One-Week High
Read More
Palladium Extends Gains to One-Week High
Palladium Extends Gains to One-Week High
[SMMFlash] Palladium futures rose to around USD 1,350/oz on August 21, extending gains to a one-week high as a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for precious metals supported prices. The US dollar weakened after the US Treasury unexpectedly increased long-dated debt buybacks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that purchases could exceed USD 4 billion per issue. Lower yield pressures initially supported non-yielding precious metals, while broader gains across the precious-metals complex, with gold on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, provided additional support. However, rising Treasury yields and higher energy prices could limit further gains by sustaining inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran also supported safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, supply-side concerns remained supportive, with lower Russian palladium output and reduced refined production linked to processing disruptions in South Africa adding to the market's underlying tightness.
59 mins ago
Macro Roundup (Feb 10) - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)