500000 Tesla Semi has been booked! Electric heavy truck market battery demand TWh level

At present, Tesla model series electric cars sell well all over the world, with total sales of nearly 500000 vehicles in 2020, ranking first in the global sales list. As a result, the self-confident Musk set himself a "small goal": to achieve annual sales of 20 million electric vehicles by 2030.

Speaking of which, Tesla can now get a Falcon rocket into space, and he may be able to land on Mars in a few years' time. However, the sales target of 20 million vehicles may be even more difficult to achieve. At present, even the world's two largest automakers, Toyota and Volkswagen, sold less than 10 million vehicles in 2020, 9.53 million and 9.3 million respectively. In other words, Tesla will surpass the sum of Toyota and Volkswagen in 10 years' time.

Obviously, if Tesla wants to achieve such a magnificent goal, it is far from enough to rely on car sales alone. As a result, Tesla began to march into SUV, MPV, pickup trucks, heavy trucks, vans and other fields. After all, Musk's ultimate goal is to achieve a 100% purely electric transport revolution; and that requires at least the total amount of power batteries of 10TWh (1TWh = 1000GWh).

01

2170L or Ningde Times Square

Recently, Tesla announced that the delivery of his trailer pure electric truck Semi will begin in 2021. It is reported that Semi will use a new battery technology different from 2170 and 4680, that is, 2170 "L" batteries with higher energy density. As for why it is necessary to use 2170L battery instead of 4680 battery, it is speculated that the 4680 battery cannot be mass produced and it is still difficult to actually use it in large electric trucks like Semi, so Tesla adopted a compromise.

However, there were earlier media reports that Ningde Times was expected to supply electric trucks and electric pickup products at Tesla's US factory, and it was said that "square batteries are more suitable for this type of models than cylindrical batteries." This may sound like a bit of a "Luoshengmen", but Musk's head has always been wild, it is possible to use any battery, there is no point in guessing what kind of battery to carry, the important thing is that Tesla is really going to mass-produce Semi this time.

In fact, the Semi was officially released at the California Design Center as early as 2017, and it is also the largest model in Tesla's history, but there has been no mass production for several years. Musk once said: "you deserve to see this beast, it is very science fiction, this car will greatly reduce the cost of transporting goods, at the same time increase safety, improve the fun of operation."

According to Tesla, the Semi will use two different batteries. The $150000 (1.06 million yuan) model has a range of 480km and the $180000 (1.27 million yuan) model has a range of 800km, while the Semi also supports fast charging mode, which can be filled up by 80% in 30 minutes.

Musk claims that using Tesla's electric trucks can save freight companies $200000 a year, and that the Semi can run 1 million miles without failure. It is understood that at present, Semi has opened a pre-sale in the US market, with a reservation of more than 500000 vehicles. Industry analysts believe that the advent of Semi will also sweep the global truck market like the huge waves set off by Model 3 in the passenger car market.

02

TWh blue ocean market

Don't underestimate the electric truck market. According to recent estimates by Nikola, the global market for Class 8 trucks (that is, Semi models) has reached 7 million vehicles, with a market space of US $600 billion. In fact, under the general trend of carbon neutrality, electric trucks, especially heavy trucks, have become the focus of the layout of many auto giants around the world.

For example, Volvo, the world's second-largest truck maker, has started selling electric trucks in North America, while Daimler, the world's largest truck maker, has announced the commercial operation of pure electric heavy trucks in 2021. At present, almost all European heavy truck companies have launched their own pure electric heavy trucks. In China, the layout of electric heavy trucks are BYD, Sinotruk, BAIC Foton, Shaanxi Automobile, FAW Liberation, Dongfeng, Universiade, Valin, Kaiwo, Xugong and other giants.

Everbright Securities pointed out that in China, driven by the sixth national standards and new environmental protection requirements, new energy heavy trucks may rise rapidly. During the two sessions last year, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, submitted a proposal to electrify construction machinery and heavy truck vehicles. Zeng Yuqun mentioned that by the end of 2019, China had nearly 15 million construction machinery and heavy trucks, with high fuel consumption and heavy pollution, equivalent to 200 million cars a year.

Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, also believes that with the aggravation of vehicle emission pollution, the prevention and control of diesel vehicle pollution has become an unavoidable topic. As early as 2013, BYD began to develop electric trucks. At present, BYD's pure electric sanitation vehicle has the largest operation scale in the world. Wang Chuanfu asserted: "heavy trucks will be fully electrified in 2025."

It is understood that at present, the number of traditional fuel heavy trucks in China is about 8 million. According to the requirements of different application scenarios, pure electric heavy trucks carry power batteries between 290 and 423KWh. Then, the corresponding power battery demand for 8 million electric heavy trucks is about 2320-3384 GWH, a proper TWh blue ocean market. If you add in the incremental market, the demand space is even greater.

03

Lithium iron phosphate "long-sleeved dance"

The storm of electrification of heavy trucks is surging, which brings great opportunities to power battery manufacturers, and many enterprises are actively adding more. It is understood that Ningde Times will provide power batteries for Daimlerka bus Company's series of trucks, and will also supply battery systems for German truck manufacturer Trailer Dynamics electric semi-trailers and apply advanced CTP technology. In China, FAW Jiefang, Hongyan, Universiade, Qingling, Yutong and BeiBen are all equipped with Ningde era batteries.

At present, the battery enterprises supporting pure electric heavy trucks in China, in addition to the Ningde era, Lishen Battery, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Tafel, Nanjing Chuangyuan, Yinlong New Energy and so on also have layout. Among them, Sinotruk Haowo driverless electric collection card, Shaanxi Automobile Xuande, equipped with Lishen battery. Geely long-distance pure electric heavy dump truck, Kaiwo pure electric heavy dump truck, supporting battery supplier is Yiwei Lithium Energy.

It is worth noting that almost all of the batteries in these enterprises are lithium iron phosphate (Yinlong is lithium titanate) batteries. Data show that in 2019, lithium iron phosphate batteries in heavy trucks accounted for nearly 100% of the installed capacity; in terms of shape, the square was the most, followed by the soft package, and the cylinder was the least. It is reported that due to the operational characteristics of electric heavy trucks, power batteries need high safety, high reliability, high durability and long life, so lithium iron phosphate battery is widely used in electric heavy trucks.

Lithium iron phosphate battery can be described as a "long-sleeved dance". Industry insiders said that for heavy trucks, in order to achieve a certain degree of safety, the ternary battery needs more investment in the system to achieve a certain degree of safety, while the lithium iron phosphate battery needs relatively less investment; in terms of safety, the thermal runaway temperature of the lithium iron phosphate battery is only 200C; in terms of life, the cycle life of the lithium iron phosphate battery is 4000-12000 times, which is longer than that of the ternary battery.

In fact, the performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been improving in recent years, and even in the field of passenger cars, it is gradually achieving a counterattack. Wuling Hongguang MINI, domestic Model 3, BYD Han EV and other best-selling models have flown the installed capacity of iron and lithium. Citic Construction Investment Securities predicts that the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China will increase to 40% to 50% in the future, and is also expected to reach 1% in the world.

In addition, in the operation mode, the industry generally believes that power exchange is particularly suitable for operating vehicles such as heavy trucks. Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, and Liu Han, chairman of Valin Xingma Group, all advocate "power exchange mode". At present, Xugong, Valin Xingma, FAW Jiefang, Fukuda Zhilan and other car companies have launched the electric version of the electric heavy truck. Xugong revealed that there were still more orders for Kabi to recharge heavy trucks in the fourth quarter of last year.

It is not difficult to imagine that with the influx of global giants such as Tesla, Ningde era, BYD and Daimler, electric heavy trucks will also become a "battleground" like the passenger car market. In the future TWh era, heavy trucks will undoubtedly be a vast new blue sea.