Due to the strong demand for overseas orders, the backlog of freight in Shanghai Port is becoming more and more serious. A number of industry insiders said in an interview with the Financial Associated Press that the situation would not improve significantly with the passing of the Spring Festival, and one industry insider even said bluntly that the backlog was "the most serious in more than a decade."

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press visited Baoshan and Lingang and learned that the cause of this backlog was strong demand for overseas orders, concentrated factory shipments at the end of the year, and instability in shipping schedule led to a serious shortage of containers. In the face of repeated outbreaks overseas, this instability is likely to continue.

"the most serious practice in more than a decade."

Shanghai Port is the main hub port along China's coast and an important port for China to participate in the international economic cycle. The most important ports include Waigang and Yangshan. The distance between the two port areas is more than 100 kilometers. Those near the ocean line generally call at outer ports, such as Southeast Asia and Australia, while those in Europe and Africa basically rely on Yangshan, which has a deep draft and can rely on large ships.

On the other hand, there are early signs of maritime congestion in Shanghai Port. On the one hand, overseas "residential economy" is booming and the demand for epidemic prevention materials and office supplies is increasing; on the other hand, customs policies of various countries are changeable, and shipping dates are difficult to set.

On the way to the port, the line was full of trucks with no end in sight. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press came forward to talk and found that the trucks parked on the side of the road were waiting in line to unload. One driver said: "I have been waiting for more than ten hours since 9 o'clock last night, and I still don't know when to wait in line." three days and three nights is normal. "

The trucks lined up outside the warehouse, while the warehouse faced the "explosion". During the investigation of a logistics warehouse in Baoshan, the reporter found that the warehouse of the company was full, and the goods that could not be piled up were even piled directly on the site. A truck driver on the side of the road told the reporter: "I have been waiting here all night, there is no box loading, and the warehouse will not be unloaded." you see, their goods are all piled on the site, and as soon as it rains, they are all finished. "

Pujietong, which is located in Lingang, is also facing a similar dilemma. A relevant official of the Ministry of Transport told reporters that there was a long queue outside, the driver could not unload the goods, the inside was deserted, and the exploded cargo could not go out and could not be transferred. In previous years, there were full cars in front of these storehouses, and one went out and the other came in. Now they can't get out of the store, and they can't get in either. "

He also mentioned that because the port area is still unable to collect the boxes, the "drop-off fee" resulting from the temporary dumping of boxes outside the port area has increased tenfold to 1500 yuan.

The person in charge of the Transport Department of a logistics company told the reporter frankly that "at the end of each year, due to the concentration of factory shipments, there will be a backlog of freight traffic, but this year is the most serious one since he has been engaged in logistics for more than a decade."

The reasons for the large backlog: uncertain shipping schedule, concentrated shipments at the end of the year, and shortage of drivers.

With regard to the reasons for the large backlog of freight in Shanghai Port, Shen Jin, deputy director of the container transfer platform of Shanghai Pujietong Logistics Information Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters: "the uncertain shipping schedule has led to a lot of problems."

According to data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the scheduled liner rate of Shanghai Port in December 2020 was only 23.98%, down 10% from the previous period. The number of attachments was 380, which was 28% lower than that of the previous period.

Table 1 2020-12 liner alignment rate of main routes of major ports in the world (part) Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange

The biggest impact of the uncertain shipping schedule is the concentrated shortage of container supply.

Shen Jin said that since the outbreak of the epidemic, on the one hand, it is unknown when the outgoing cargo ships will come back, and a large number of containers remain overseas and cannot be unpacked; on the other hand, the boxes returning to China can be emptied in the previous 7-14 days, and the boxes will certainly be empty in up to 40 days. But no one knows how long this time will be this year.

The container stock of each shipping company is basically fixed, there may be a certain increase or decrease, but there will not be a significant increase.

Shen Jin also said that the backlog of freight has actually been going on for several months, but the concentrated factory shipments at the end of the year led to a concentrated outbreak in January.

In addition, there is a problem with the backlog of freight transport before the year, which is due to the lack of drivers. A large number of drivers return to their hometown for the Spring Festival, while the demand for shipments from factories is at least twice as high as usual. Shen Jin said: "many factories have a holiday, and the goods in a month will be cleared in half a month, but the driver can't be found, and now he can't even find a driver for 1500 yuan a day."

In addition to the backlog of freight caused by the above reasons, the congestion is also related to the characteristics of different ports. as far as Shanghai is concerned, the mode of the outer port is to declare customs after the advanced port, while the Yangshan mode is to declare customs first and then enter the port. An industry source told reporters that about 80 per cent of the customs declaration time at Yangshan Port is at 4 or 05:00 in the afternoon, and all vehicles are not allowed to enter the port before then, and only after customs declaration can we concentrate on entering the port.

Strong demand for shipments, shortage of containers or continuous boost to freight rates

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned that the shortage of containers has been going on for some time, and this "big backlog" more directly reflects the serious contradiction between supply and demand, which is likely to continue to boost freight rates.

According to Shen Jin, deputy director of the above-mentioned container transfer platform, under the epidemic, the demand for exported materials has not declined, or even increased. According to the data provided by him, the container export volume of PJT increased by nearly 12.3% last year, while the container import volume was only 1/10 of that in 2019. Shen Jin stressed that the current shortage of containers in the company is quite serious.

At present, there is still a frequent phenomenon of "throwing cabinets" in Shanghai Port. Shen Jin said: "although it is normal for boxes to be dumped late in the past, they are more likely to be dumped cabinets now, the route is seriously reduced, and the shipping space is very tight."

The same problem not only occurs in Shanghai Port, but Philip (a pseudonym), who works as a freight forwarder in Huangpu Port and Nansha Port in Guangzhou, told reporters that ships are often dumped before they arrive at the port, because the ship exploded at the previous stop, and the ship did not stop here at all. If you can't get on this cabinet, you will be dumped.

The staff of a shipping company is also very helpless about this situation. He told the Financial Associated Press that the situation of throwing cabinets exists at all times. Under the trend of rising freight rates, guests are anxious to ship goods, and shipowners have a pick-up ratio, which normally exceeds 30%. Under normal market conditions, there are various reasons for the withdrawal of cabinets. Those who receive 130% of the capacity can normally ship 100%, and shipowners will not lose space, but in this situation, everyone is in a hurry to ship the goods. It may be 130% of all shipments, resulting in a warehouse explosion.

Philip, who is engaged in freight forwarding, said frankly: "the shipping market is finally getting better. As a result, there are no cabinets (containers), and customers ask for cabinets (containers)."

Indeed, China's export container freight index has been climbing since last year. It can be seen that China's export container freight index rose from less than 1000 in the first half of last year to 2040.18 on January 29 this year.

Table 2: China's export container freight index all the way up data source: Shanghai Aviation Exchange

The above-mentioned shipping company told reporters that it is estimated that the increase in freight rates will continue for half a year, which is mainly caused by the lack of boxes.

With regard to the shortage of containers, the person said that due to the impact of the epidemic in many foreign countries, the efficiency of terminal operations is too low, and many ships have problems in berthing, loading and unloading. For example, the United States basically has to wait about 15 days before berthing, and the efficiency of customs clearance at the terminal is inefficient. As a result, many empty containers cannot be returned for normal turnover.

Chen, general manager of Shanghai Yanghao Freight forwarding Co., Ltd., also believes that freight rates will continue to be an upward trend in the short term. "if the overseas epidemic continues and the shipping schedule cannot be stabilized, freight congestion and freight increases will continue," he said. "

Although the shortage of containers seems to continue, the reporter found that there is still good news. A number of people related to shipping companies said that in order to alleviate the "large backlog", shipping companies' idle capacity has been put into use one after another.