[SMM Metal Breakfast] successive shipments of South American Copper Mine pressurize TC*2 Moon Iron Ore Price Prospect * load reduction production of Sichuan Power-limited Silicon Plant

[overnight market] domestic non-ferrous metals rose across the board, but the black green dollar fell slightly and the gold price was under pressure.

[macro outlook] focus on the annual rate of core PCE price index in the United States in December

Yesterday, the metal on the outer disk was up and down. Lun Copper rose 0.78%, Lun Al fell 0.3%, Lunzn Zinc rose 0.68%, Lunni rose 0.06%, Lunxi rose 1.18%, and Lunxi fell 0.02%. In the domestic market, international copper rose 0.5%, Shanghai copper rose 0.26%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.68%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.41%, Shanghai lead rose 0.52%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.55%, Shanghai tin rose 0.89%, iron ore fell 2.38%, thread fell 0.88%, and stainless steel rose 0.49%. Domestic non-ferrous metals rose across the board, only black green, of which iron ore fell the biggest, SMM believes that the current policy will add new iron ore deliverable brands, the steel industry will reduce production and other negative, while the recent steel mills due to increased costs and steel prices fall or lead to increased short-term maintenance to suppress bullish confidence. However, taking into account the recent Australian port to continue the decline, and vulnerable to climate factors in February, iron ore supply uncertainty increased.

The dollar index fell slightly as risk sentiment improved, as data showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, and (GDP) data, though poor, were in line with expectations.

The three major indexes of US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 300.19 points, or 0.99%, at 30603.36, the Nasdaq up 66.56 points, or 0.50% at 13337.16, and the S & P 500 up 36.61 points, or 0.98%, at 3787.38. On the data side, GDP in the United States grew by 4% in the fourth quarter, slightly lower than market expectations. Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 847000 last week, better than the market had expected. However, South Carolina in the United States confirmed the first case of mutated novel coronavirus infection found in South Africa, and the patient had no recent travel record, which worried medical experts.

Inventory

Macro focus

[foreign giants coincidentally increase their investment in China] in 2020, under the dual impact of trade protectionism and the impact of the global epidemic, China showed its charm as an investment destination. More and more foreign companies are racing against the clock to speed up the layout of physical investment in China, including large-scale projects. Enterprise is a heat wave, and policy is also a heat wave. This heat wave is surging, and that heat wave is already in place. Under the background of global economic shocks and uncertainties, the Chinese market has become a "safe haven" for many multinational companies, and it is also an important engine for their performance growth in 2020.

[short-term liquidity pressure highlights concern about the expected gap between central bank operations and the Spring Festival funding gap] A few days ago, short-term liquidity pressure further emerged, exchange bond repurchase rates rose sharply across the board. Citic Securities pointed out that given that monetary policy orientation still emphasizes "no sharp U-turn", tightening policies such as reserve increases and interest rate increases are not expected, but interbank liquidity volatility will increase. At the transaction level, the follow-up mainly needs to pay attention to the expected difference between the central bank operation and the Spring Festival funding gap.

[French Finance Minister Lemerre: with US Treasury Secretary Yellen has always believed that an agreement on global tax rules should be sought] French Finance Minister Lemerre said after a phone call with US Treasury Secretary Yellen that Yellen welcomed Yellen's commitment to the United States to actively participate in OECD discussions on international taxation and to reach an international agreement in a timely manner, and Yellen had always believed that an agreement on global tax rules should be sought. Yellen agreed on the need to find multilateral solutions to many of the problems facing the global economy.

Today's focus

[SMM Analysis: one wave after another, copper mines in South America are under pressure one after another TC] the global novel coronavirus epidemic has risen one after another. On the evening of the 26th local time, in response to the second wave of the epidemic, President Francisco Sagasti announced that from January 31 to February 14, the capital Lima and nine regions would be blocked to deal with the continued spread of the second wave of the epidemic. "View details

[SMM research: what is the situation of pre-holiday stock preparation for cable companies when copper prices have fallen?] Copper prices fell in the middle of the week, with the main contracts falling by 1.31%, which accelerated the pace of cable companies' purchase before the end of the year, but when hand-held orders were limited, coupled with a fine scrap price spread of about 2500, enterprises had already. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: Chilean coastal winds and waves affect shipments of US dollars and copper are expected to intensify.] according to SMM, the recent surge in winds and waves in northern Chile has led to a large area delay in copper exports in January. In northern Chile, there are a number of large and medium-sized ports responsible for the transport of electrolytic copper and copper concentrate, such as Antofagasta, Mejillones, Iquique, Arica, Patache. At present, in addition to the normal operation of Antofagasta port, the other four ports are difficult to achieve large ships landing for electrolytic copper loading operation. "View details

The price of copper foil is soaring when there is insufficient supply. Enterprises are busy expanding production under dividends] benefiting from the continued popularity of new energy vehicles, chip market and 5G base stations, the price of copper foil continues to rise as the supply of lithium copper foil products exceeds demand. In addition, copper foil prices are usually composed of copper prices and processing fees, both of which have been on an upward trend since the second half of 2020, which has also become a driving factor for the rise in copper foil prices. "View details

[SMM data: comparison of inventory changes in China's Electrolytic Aluminum Society before and after the Spring Festival in 2010-2021] SMM statistics, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is in the accumulation cycle before and after the Spring Festival, this week's inventory increased by 13000 tons compared with last week, SMM screening nearly 10 years of comparative analysis of historical data over the same period, the current inventory accumulation range in 2021 is at the historical neutral level. "View details

[SMM data: local area pre-festival reserve warehouse continues to stack goods limited electrolytic aluminum social inventory weekly 13000 tons to 682000 tons] on January 28, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory 682000 tons, weekly accumulated warehouse 13000 tons, mainly due to some areas such as Wuxi, Gongyi, etc., downstream pre-festival reserve warehouse continued, and there was no significant increase in Xinjiang and southwest arrival. "View details

SMM: what is the impact of Peru's total blockade on the lead industry? In response to the second wave of the epidemic, on the evening of the 26th local time, Peruvian President Francisco Sagasti announced that the capital Lima and nine regions would be blocked from January 31 to February 14 to deal with the continuing spread of the second wave of the epidemic. As we all know, Peru is the third largest lead concentrate producer in the world and the second largest importer of lead concentrate from China. In 2020, China imported 220000 physical tons of lead concentrate from Peru, accounting for 17% of China's total lead concentrate imports. "View details

[SMM analysis: zinc price plunge short-term shock weak focus on inventory increment and refinery maintenance reduction plan] overall, the current zinc fundamentals are very weak, and after a substantial increase in LME inventory in the past two days, we still need to pay attention to the risk that will continue to be delivered, and zinc prices are expected to be in a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. "View details

[SMM brief comment: non-embroidered steel main contract positions continue to drop registered warehouse receipts increased significantly] Holidays are approaching, stainless steel spot prices are mainly stable, at present, some traders in Foshan, South China entered the holiday at the beginning, not yet holiday personnel mainly to deliver goods, rarely receive orders. Most traders in Wuxi will begin to enter the holiday state next week, and the pre-holiday market is mainly stable. "View details

[SMM monthly Outlook: what is the trend of the iron ore industry in the next month after breaking the 1000-yuan mark? In January 2021, the trend of iron ore basically rose first and then suppressed, and in early January, the iron ore price was high and fluctuating; the ore price gradually fell in the last ten days, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in the first two days that it would take four major measures to ensure a substantial decline in crude steel production in 2021, putting pressure on the price of coke, ore and other raw materials. Coupled with the impact of the addition of deliverable brands, and iron ore fell below the thousand yuan mark, what is the trend in the future? "View details

[SMM analysis: supply and demand double weak steel prices continue range shock trend] according to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate of SMM was 86.8% on January 28th, down 0.7% from last week and 1.6% from the same period last year. Affected by the epidemic on Monday, the transportation of raw materials was not smooth, and some steel mills were forced to cut production. On the other hand, squeezed by the rising price of raw materials, steel enterprises in some regions are already in the range of losses. Shaanxi-Shanxi-Gansu-Sichuan Forum proposes that enterprises in the region organize maintenance in the off-season in the first quarter, leading to a significant decline in the operating rate of blast furnace. "View details

[fourth week of January thread inventory report: demand flameout accumulation warehouse accelerated ing.] as of January 28, the national total inventory of building materials was 8.3522 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 15.7%, and the lunar calendar was + 33.9% compared with the same period last year. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market demand has slowly stalled, leaving only a small number of terminals and speculative demand, and thread inventory has accelerated its accumulation. "View details

Due to insufficient power supply, there have been power cuts in many places in Sichuan this week. Leshan, Aba and other regions have opened one furnace and stopped one furnace in some production plants, and some have intermittent production. Up to now, less than 20 silicon furnaces are being produced in Sichuan Province. The duration of power cuts varies from place to place. "View details

SMM analysis: magnesium prices have fallen by 8% since the beginning of the year, but these factors can be followed! Since the beginning of this year, the price of magnesium has continued to decline until it has slowed down in recent days. in the current magnesium market, according to SMM research, due to the concentrated delivery of goods downstream in the previous two days, the market procurement volume has increased slightly, resulting in a slight rise in prices, the procurement of downstream goods has basically ended, and the overall demand has returned to stable. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[southern Copper: copper production exceeded 1 million tons in 2020, an increase of 0.8% over the same period last year] recently, Southern Copper (Southern Copper Corporation) released its fourth-quarter results, announcing that the company's copper production exceeded 1 million tons in 2020. "View details

[Freeport McMillan: increased copper demand is expected to boost revenue growth this year] (Freeport McMoRan Inc) of Freeport McMillan reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, and the company said it expects its copper and gold output to increase further this year. The company said its copper production rose to 864 million pounds in the fourth quarter of 2020, while gold output rose to 273000 ounces over the same period. "View details

[Suotong Development 2020 Annual performance pre-increase announcement] according to the market, Suotong Development (603612) announced on the evening of January 28th that the net profit in 2020 is expected to be 207 million yuan to 247 million yuan, an increase of 139.40% to 185.67% over the same period last year. During the forecast period, the holding subsidiary Shandong Innovation carbon Materials Co., Ltd. 600kt/a pre-baked anode project (phase I), Suotong Qili carbon material Co., Ltd. 300kt/a pre-baked anode project capacity has been released normally, downstream customers have strong demand for pre-baked anodes, sales prices continue to rise from July 2020 to December 2020, and the company's sales volume has increased significantly over the previous year.

[Zhuye Group performance Forecast: year-on-year net profit growth of 87% won 113%] Zhuzhou Metallurgical Group announced that net profit in 2020 is expected to increase by 67.56 million to 87.56 million yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 87% over the same period last year. The production of the company's zinc project is stable, the production and sales volume has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, the production cost index has been continuously optimized, and the main economic and technical indicators have reached the design value.

[Canadian Nickel Industry: Crawford Nickel Cobalt Sulfide Project latest Nickel recovery rate is 52%] according to recent reports, Nickel Canada has announced the processing test results of its Crawford Nickel Cobalt Sulfide project in the Timmins-Cochrane mining area. The latest processing data show that the recovery rate of nickel is 52%, 46% of the recovered nickel is decomposed into high-grade nickel concentrate, and the nickel content is 37%. The remaining 54% of the recovered nickel will be transported to a standard grade nickel concentrate with a nickel content of 13%. "View details

[the Ministry of Commerce responds to lifting the ban on Australian coal imports] Australia's trade minister said recently that he had written to China seeking to restart dialogue and hoped that China would lift the ban on its coal imports. Gao Feng, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, responded that China's position on the development of Sino-Australian economic and trade relations is consistent. The current difficult situation in Sino-Australian relations is not what China wants to see. A healthy and stable China-Australia relationship is in the common interests of the two countries. It is hoped that Australia will do more things conducive to mutual trust and cooperation between China and Australia and promote Sino-Australian relations to get back on track at an early date.

[FMG iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter were unchanged at 46.4 million tons compared with the same period last year] recently, Australian iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group released a production report showing that iron ore shipments rose 4.7% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, benefiting from a surge in Chinese demand. Shipments in the quarter were 46.4 million tons, unchanged from a year earlier. Its iron ore shipments totaled 180.3 million tonnes in 2020, up 4 per cent from 2019. In terms of production, FMG processed 44.2 million tons of iron ore in the fourth quarter, down 4 per cent from a year earlier. "View details

On January 27th, Honeycomb Energy Technology Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Suining City to build a 20GWh power battery factory in Suining Economic Development District at a cost of 7 billion yuan. According to the agreement, Honeycomb Energy will build a complete new energy power battery industry chain system through 3-5 years of development to gather new kinetic energy for the development of Suining. The total investment of the project is 7 billion yuan, and the planned land area of the core area is about 720mu to build a 20Gwh power lithium-ion battery manufacturing plant. After the overall completion of the project, it is expected to achieve an annual output value of 14 billion yuan, annual tax payment of 630 million, and employment of more than 4000 people. "View details

[power battery rampant growth of new enterprises in 2020] recently, due to the strong market demand, the whole power battery industry chain has been "exploded", and the price of raw materials is still in short supply. According to enterprise survey data, as of January 2021, there were 18000 power battery-related enterprises in China, and 5253 newly registered enterprises were registered in 2020, an increase of 66.1 percent over the same period last year, of which 2953 were newly registered in the fourth quarter, an increase of 196.5 percent from the previous quarter. From the perspective of regional distribution, Guangdong is currently the province with the largest number of power battery-related enterprises in China, with a total of 3728, followed by Hunan and Jiangsu respectively.

[world Gold Council: global annual gold demand fell by 14% to 3759.6 tons in 2020] according to the latest "Gold demand trend report" released by the World Gold Council for the whole year and the fourth quarter of 2020, the annual global gold demand fell by 14% to 3759.6 tons in 2020. This is the first time since 2009 that annual gold demand has fallen below 4000 tonnes. Total annual demand for gold ornaments was 1411.6 tons, down 34% from 2019 and an all-time low. "View details

[Shenghe Resources: the annual net profit in 2020 is expected to increase by 148 million yuan to 198 million yuan] on the evening of January 28, Shenghe Resources issued a performance forecast that the company expects to achieve net profit of 250 million yuan to 300 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies in 2020, an increase of 148 million yuan to 198 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 146% to 195% over the same period last year.

[Longji shares: the net profit for 2020 is expected to be 8.2 billion yuan to 8.6 billion yuan] Longji shares issued a performance forecast this evening, and the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 8.2 billion yuan to 8.6 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 55.30% to 62.88% over the same period last year.

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position fell 4.37t, or 0.37 per cent, from the previous day to the current position of 1164.80 tonnes.

Terminal information

[Daimler: the company's full-year EBIT for 2020 is much higher than expected at 6.6 billion euros] Daimler said preliminary data show that its full-year EBIT for 2020 was 6.6 billion euros, far exceeding previous guidelines and market expectations. The adjusted EBIT for the whole year is 8.64 billion euros. The business outlook is expected to be positive in 2021. The shortage of semiconductors is likely to affect performance in the first quarter of 2021.

[Musk: the electric sports car Roadster will be completed this year and start production next year] Tesla CEO Musk said that the electric sports car Roadster will be completed this year and start production next year. The goal is to launch a driverable candidate design by the end of the summer. Three-motor drive system and advanced battery work are important prerequisites.

[China Radio and Television holding hands China Mobile Radio and Television 5G "release number" is at hand] Lu Jianjie, general manager of China Radio and Television, said that next, the follow-up integration of unlisted provincial network companies will be promoted, and provincial network companies will be renamed and listed. Uniformly renamed as "China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd. × provincial (autonomous region and municipal) company." The reporter learned that the renaming and listing of the Network Company of China's Ministry of Radio, Film and Television is getting closer and closer. In addition, Radio and Television 5G will release the number as soon as the second quarter of this year, which will become the most substantial good news for Radio and Television 5G.

[big mo: raised its forecast for China's electric vehicle sales in 2021 from 1.5 million to 1.7 million.] mo Genstani raised its outlook for China's electric vehicle market, covering Xiaopeng for the first time and giving it an overweight rating; raised the target price of Lulai from $33 to $80 and the target price of ideal car from $26 to $49; and raised its forecast for China's 2021 electric vehicle sales from 1.5 million to 1.7 million.

[sources: Geely will pay to help Faraday merge with a SPAC in the future] Chinese carmaker Geely will act as an anchor investor in the future (Faraday Future) listing of the US electric car company through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, (SPAC), according to two people familiar with the matter. The merger could be announced in the United States as early as Friday, valuing Faraday's future at about $2.7 billion, the person familiar with the matter said. Faraday has agreed to merge with (SPAC)-Property Solutions Acquisition Corp, a special-purpose acquisition company, in the future. Geely will provide $775 million in financing for the deal in the form of private equity investments in (PIPE) shares of listed companies, according to one of the sources.

[radio frequency chip manufacturer Guobo Electronics A-share IPO has been listed for the record] recently, according to the Jiangsu Regulatory Bureau disclosed the basic situation table of guidance and filing enterprises in its jurisdiction, Nanjing Guobo Electronics Co., Ltd. (Guobo Electronics) intends to make an initial public offering of shares and be listed on the domestic stock exchange, has now accepted the guidance of Guotai Junan, and conducted guidance and filing in Jiangsu Securities Supervision Bureau on January 13, 2020.