SMM Morning Comments (Jan 21): Shanghai base metals were mostly higher after Wall Street surged to records following Biden's inauguration

Published: Jan 21, 2021 10:00

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Nonferrous metals on the SHFE were mostly higher on Thursday morning, and their counterparts on the LME rose across the board after stocks on Wall Street sailed to record highs as US President Joe Biden was sworn into office.

SHANGHAI, Jan 21 (SMM) — Nonferrous metals on the SHFE were mostly higher on Thursday morning, and their counterparts on the LME rose across the board after stocks on Wall Street sailed to record highs as US President Joe Biden was sworn into office.

Shanghai base metals mostly advanced in overnight trading. Copper added 0.07%, aluminium rose 0.51%, lead increased 0.93%, zinc went up 0.86% and tin strengthened 1.13%, while nickel fell 0.23%.

The LME complex rose across the board on Wednesday. Tin was the best performer with a rise of 2.96%. Lead advanced 1.42%, nickel edged up 0.06%, aluminium climbed 0.79%, zinc increased 1.41% and copper went up 0.59%.

Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 0.59% to end at $8,041.5/mt on Wednesday, and is likely to trade between $8,000-8,090/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2103 copper contract went up 0.03% to close at 59,140 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and it is expected to move between 58,900-59,400 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen at 90-140 yuan/mt.

Biden was officially sworn in as the president of the US, and the market expects that the US will announce additional fiscal stimulus measures soon, and investors' optimism has increased. The three major indexes of US stocks all hit record closing highs, giving copper futures certain upward momentum. On the spot side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream is not prosperous without a large number of orders. On the premise that the order under long-term contracts is drawing to a close, the initiative of trading in the market begins to decline obviously, and the willingness of the cargo holders to sell to exchange cash gradually increases.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc rose 1.41% to close at $2,728/mt on Wednesday. Zinc stocks at LME-listed warehouses fell 2,425 mt to 194,200 mt. Overnight, investors' risk appetite improved, optimistic expectations that the US will announce additional fiscal stimulus measures soon after Biden took office, and good news that Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine or the mutation virus in Britain was effective boosted LME zinc upward. Macro guidance will be monitored in the near term. The contract is likely to trade between $2,680-2,730/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2103 zinc contract rose 0.86% to end at 20,520 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Recently, the downstream of the spot market began to restock at low prices, and social stocks remained low. With the profits of smelters narrowing, the supply was shortened, which still supported zinc prices.The holiday time of enterprises will be monitored in the near term. The SHFE zinc contract is expected to move between 20,300-20,800 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 150-160 yuan/mt.

Nickel: The most-active SHFE 2103 nickel contract fell 0.23% to close at 134,490 yuan/mt on Wednesday. Open interests rose 194 lots to 190,000 lots. The contract is expected to fluctuate between the 10-day moving of 132,300 yuan/mt to 136,500 yuan/mt.

Lead: Three-month LME lead settled 1.42% higher at $2,039/mt on Wednesday. Overnight, Biden's inauguration ceremony ended and officially took office. The market was optimistic about Biden's government's fiscal stimulus plan, supporting risk appetite, and the US dollar index was under pressure and fluctuated weakly, boosting LME base metals.

The most-active SHFE 2103 lead contract went up 0.93% to close at 15,165 yuan/mt on Wednesday night. Unfinished pre-holiday restock still gives upward momentum to lead prices. The impact of domestic pandemic development and logistics delay on trading in supply and demand markets should be monitored.

Tin: Three-month LME tin closed up 2.96% at $21,740/mt on Wednesday. Under the cautious about the supply shortage, LME tin is expected to continue to maintain a strong trend. Pressure above will be seen from $22,000 /mt today. Support below will be seen from $21,000/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2103 tin contract rose 1.25% at 159,850 yuan/mt on Wednesday night. The recent reduction in domestic circulation spot has supported the premium and tin prices. The contract is expected to continue to test pressure from 160,000 yuan/mt in the near term.

Market commentary Copper Aluminium Zinc Nickel Lead Tin

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