SMM1 March 13: there are ups and downs in the non-ferrous metals market today. By the end of the day, international copper rose 0.85%, Shanghai copper rose 0.72%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.11%, Shanghai lead rose 2.07%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.14%, Shanghai nickel rose 3.15%, and Shanghai tin rose 0.1%. In terms of aluminum, due to the macro aspect, some of the demand has weakened recently due to the epidemic and other factors. The supply side of the fundamentals rises slowly, the consumption performance falls seasonally, and the industry enters the accumulation cycle. In addition, electricity and gas restrictions, enterprises are facing the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, the downstream demand side is gradually weakening, the price center of gravity is expected to shake down before the Spring Festival. Near the end of the New year, the start-up of aluminum profile enterprises in the northern market in January has been weakened to varying degrees. SMM focused on the holiday situation of profile enterprises in the northern region, and most enterprises said they would have a holiday at the end of January.
[SMM analysis] Aluminum price is now weak in Synchronize. Downstream procurement has a strong wait-and-see mood.
As for copper, according to a survey by SMM, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises is expected to be 84.38% in January, up 2.32% from the previous month and 27.77% higher than the same period last year. In the terminal appliance industry, especially with the benefit of refrigeration equipment, the utilization rate of copper tube capacity continued to increase in January. Some companies said that orders increased by more than 10% month-on-month in the first ten days of January. The Spring Festival last year was earlier, and the orders of terminal enterprises also ended ahead of schedule, and this year's Spring Festival came in mid-February, and some copper tube manufacturers revealed their plans to increase production in January in order to meet their orders. As a result, the copper tube start-up rate increased sharply in January compared with the same period last year.
[SMM Analysis] the peak season effect strengthens and the copper tube operating rate continues to rise in December.
In terms of black, thread fell 0.26%, hot coil rose 0.11%, stainless steel rose 1.24%, coking coal fell 5.17%, coke fell 2.22%, and iron ore rose 0.05%. According to SMM research, as of January 12, the operating rate of 34 independent electric arc furnace steel mills with main building materials in the country was 81.97%, down 1.21% from last week. The main reduction came from East China, where the operating rate of electric furnace plants fell by about 3 percentage points. Recently, scrap prices have risen, of which East China has increased the most (since January, the price of scrap in East China has increased by 170-200 yuan / ton, while the price of scrap in other areas has generally increased by 40-130 yuan / ton). While the rebar price is slowly falling (the national spot price of rebar has fallen by 27.2 yuan / ton since January, and it has dropped by about 75 yuan / ton since mid-January), the production profits of steel mills have been sharply compressed, resulting in a decline in their willingness to produce.
[SMM exclusive] scrap prices rise regionally, electric furnace operating rate drops slightly
The previous period of crude oil rose 3.07%, international crude oil futures rose in the Asian market on Wednesday, and US crude oil rose for seven consecutive days as industry reports showed that US crude oil stocks fell and investors were not affected by the deterioration of the epidemic. Oil prices have shrugged off the impact of the recent increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Europe and the United States, and turned their focus to vaccination. however, the promotion of vaccines in different countries is different, and the market risk remains.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.74% and Shanghai silver rose 1.63%, while spot gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday as yields on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries fell, while the prospect of a massive fiscal stimulus in the United States made gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation. Analysts pointed out that overall, this year is still a very positive year for gold. With real yields still negative and the dollar continuing to fall this year, gold remains an attractive option.
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