Who would have thought that the first shot in China's home appliance market in 2021 was triggered and detonated by the rise in the price of raw materials.
On January 6, Baosteel announced that the domestic price of Baosteel carbon steel in February 2021 will be adjusted on the basis of January 2021, including thick plate, hot rolling, section steel, pickling, common cold, hot dip galvanized, electrogalvanized, non-oriented electrical steel, oriented electrical steel, color coated, aluminized galvanized, high alumina zinc aluminum magnesium and other raw materials. Price increases range from 20 to 1500 yuan per ton, including hot-dip galvanized, electrogalvanized, non-oriented electrical steel, oriented electrical steel, color coated, aluminized galvanized, high aluminum zinc aluminum magnesium and other raw materials.
In addition to carbon steel prices, crude oil prices have also continued to rise rapidly in the last two trading days. According to the latest international crude oil price estimates, the first round of domestic oil price adjustment in 2021, which will take place on the evening of January 15, is more likely to usher in five consecutive increases in domestic oil prices. The price increase of polyurethane Bubble material, which is used in the field of thermal insulation of household appliances such as refrigerators, freezers and water heaters, has not been reported since New Year's Day, but the prices of raw materials such as polyether, pure MDI and DMF soared in September and October last year, and the highs and lows of the year rose by more than 170%. Judging from this, the rise may become the inevitable way out for home appliance manufacturers this year.
The price of raw materials goes up again and again.
In fact, since the second half of last year, the prices of raw materials for home appliances have risen for many times. In November, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum exceeded 16000 yuan / ton, a new high in nearly three years; at the end of November, Shanghai copper closed at 57700 yuan / ton, the highest since March 2013. The prices of other steel products, such as cold-rolled plates, were higher in September last year than in the same period in 2019. As of late December, the national average daily price of cold rolling was 4457 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.6 per cent over the same period in 2019.
Since the resumption of the bull market in November last year, crude oil prices have risen by more than 40% in a short period of more than two months. Crude oil prices have continued to rise rapidly in the last two trading days. After oil prices rose 4.85% the day before yesterday, Brent crude oil futures prices continued to rise yesterday, breaking through 54 US dollars per barrel at one point in intraday trading. Oil prices reached the highest level since March 2020 at 54.63 US dollars per barrel. According to international crude oil price estimates, some analysts predict that in the first round of domestic oil price adjustment to be held on the evening of January 15, the domestic oil price is expected to rise by 40 yuan per ton of gasoline.
In terms of LCD panels, statistics from Omdia show that at the end of November, the price of a 55-inch 4K LCD TV panel was $170, up from $100 a year ago, or 70 per cent in just one year. The price of the 65-inch panel remained above $200 for the second month in a row. The price of the 43-inch 1080p LCD panel exceeded $100 for the first time, and the 32-inch panel hit a recent high of $61.
Hu Qimu, a senior researcher at the Economic Research Institute of Sinosteel, believes that the rise in the price of industrial metal raw materials on the one hand reflects the expectation of global economic recovery after the launch of novel coronavirus vaccine in the future. In addition, the current social inventory of raw materials is indeed low. It is expected that in the future, with the launch of novel coronavirus vaccine, the positive factors of economic recovery will increase, and the demand side will continue to stimulate the rise in the price of bulk metal materials.
The terminal price of home appliances may continue to rise in 2021.
In home appliances and other manufacturing industries, the cost of raw materials accounts for more than 80%. In the home appliance industry, there is a great demand for bulk raw materials such as copper, aluminum, steel, plastics, and electronic components such as liquid crystal panels, and the price of core raw materials is on the rise. The upstream cost pressure of home appliances will be further increased. At the same time, the labor cost of the whole market has not fallen because of the weakness of the economy as a whole. From this point of view, for home appliance manufacturers, the current living space and competitive situation can be said to be "under pressure at both ends".
In the face of a lot of rising cost pressure, raising the price of home appliances may become an inevitable way out for home appliance manufacturers this year. In fact, last month, Gree Electric Appliances issued a notice to adjust the price of the company's air-conditioning products structurally. Among them, the price of the new GB hanging up increased by 100 yuan, and the price of the new GB cabinet machine increased by 200 yuan. In addition, Okos, Zhigao, Meibo and other home appliance brands have also adjusted their prices on Synchronize, with prices of air conditioners rising by 100 to 300 yuan respectively.
In addition to the increase in the price of air conditioners, other large household appliances, including televisions and refrigerators, are also affected by the rising prices of upstream raw materials, resulting in some price adjustments. For example, according to a salesperson at a TCL TV store in Chongqing, the price of TCL TV rose once in September last year, ranging from 200 yuan to 2000 yuan. On December 8, the store again received a price increase notice from the brand company, raising the price of all sizes of televisions across the board. The staff member said, "We are not the only one, the prices of many brands of large household appliances have gone up." According to Overevo's forecast, global panel shipments will fall by 1.0% year-on-year in 2021, and TV prices may continue to rise. The average retail price in the color TV market returned to 2808 yuan, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year.
Some industry analysts predict that from core components such as air-conditioning compressors and liquid crystal panels to basic materials such as steel, iron, copper, rare earths, plastic particles, from production raw materials to operating costs, from the supply price of the whole machine to terminal retail prices, including logistics and distribution, marketing and promotion, maintenance services and other links, there will be a round of collective increases in the first quarter of 2021 or even the whole first half of 2021. As a result, the pressure and impact on the business activities of all home appliance manufacturers in the market will continue to increase. In this regard, Song Jia, director of the Innovation Center of the Machinery Industry Economics and Management Institute of the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said that the industry should study and promote the establishment of a market-oriented long-term price and supply coordination mechanism to form a tough and orderly supply chain ecosystem and a long-term price system. in order to ensure the harmonious and standardized development of the whole industrial ecology.
