Under the cold wave, there was a large-scale cooling across the country on December 29, and the hot black market in the early days was also poured a basin of "cold water". According to Xinhua she, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xiao Yaqing said at the national industry and information work conference in 2021 that it is necessary to implement industrial low-carbon action and green manufacturing projects around carbon peak and carbon neutralization target nodes. As a high energy-intensive industry, the iron and steel industry should resolutely reduce crude steel output and ensure that crude steel output decreases compared with the same period last year. Iron ore producer Samarco is expected to produce 7 million-8 million tons of iron ore a year after it restarted in December, according to other news.
Under the pressure of the news, the domestic futures market closed yesterday afternoon, with the black series leading the decline, thermal coal down nearly 4%, and iron ore, coking coal and hot rolls down more than 2%.
The decline of iron ore futures accelerated during the night trading, and the decline of the main contract expanded to 6% at one point, closing down 5.2%. Iron ore futures have broken the 1000 yuan / ton mark after falling for two days this week. In addition, coking coal fell nearly 4% at one point in the night market, and both thermal coal and coking coal fell more than 2% by the close of night trading.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday he opposes raising the stimulus check from $600 to $2000. The move comes after the House of Representatives passed the bill by a vote of 275 to 134on Monday night, supporting President Trump's request to send $2000 cheques directly to Americans. Trump commented: "unless the Republicans want to die, they must approve the $2000 payment as soon as possible." 600 dollars is not enough. "
The epidemic in the United States has shown a trend of extreme deterioration, even out of control. According to CNBC, the first confirmed case of novel coronavirus variant virus was found in Colorado, USA. Analysts believe that the introduction of a new round of rescue plan is not enough to bridge the damage caused by the spread of the epidemic to the US economy and people, still less can it fundamentally solve the problems such as the rise in long-term unemployment and the widening gap between the rich and the poor caused by the epidemic.
The structural contradiction of iron ore inventory may still exist in the short term.
From a fundamental point of view, the supply of mainstream mines has increased in stages in recent days, and iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have reached a new high for the year. Due to the end of overhaul of overseas ports and the addition of Australian mine year-end impulse, total iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil increased by 4.577 million tons to 29.747 million tons last week, the highest since the latest statistics began in June last year. However, according to the arrival data, China's 45 MTR ore arrivals to Hong Kong last week were 22.323 million tons, down 3.986 million tons from the previous month.
Citic Construction Investment Futures Industrial products R & D team said that Australia, Brazil shipping data inflection point, is expected to continue to improve. While the sharp decline in China's arrival data is mainly affected by low previous shipments, it is expected that there is little risk of continuous decline in short-term arrival data, and iron ore prices remain in an oscillatory downward state.
Wei Ying of Societe Generale Futures Investment Consulting Department said that with the end of overhaul of overseas mines, shipments began to pick up sharply, with total iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil increasing by 4.577 million tons month-on-month last week. At the same time, due to record profits from imported mines, the volume of Australian mines sent to China also increased significantly, with an increase of 4.227 million tons last week. With steelmaking profits shrinking again, the procurement demand of steel mills is cautious, some steel mills have even been delayed, and port inventories have begun to increase.
The total ore inventory of China's 45 Hong Kong Railway on Monday was 125.016 million tons, an increase of 929000 tons from last Thursday and 1.395 million tons from last Monday, according to the data. Due to the cold wave warning issued one after another in many places, port unloading and dredging are affected to varying degrees, resulting in a decrease in port shipments and storage volume, but at the same time, due to the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions in some areas, the decline in output exceeds that in storage volume and the port inventory increases.
Wei Ying said that the current domestic demand for iron ore is maintained, and the winter storage and replenishment of steel works iron ore is expected to still exist before the Spring Festival. And affected by the continuous rise in coke prices, the demand for mainstream medium-grade fine ore in steel mills is still relatively strong, and the structural contradiction of port iron ore inventory may still exist in the short term. However, the counterattack of outbreaks at home and abroad in winter still affects market sentiment. On the whole, she believes that there is no incremental profit in the fundamentals for the time being, the margin of supply and demand is weakening, and iron ore prices may be under pressure with steel prices. Operationally, she suggested that the iron ore 2105 should not leave the market before the contract, and the new order will wait and see for the time being. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil, as well as domestic steel demand and profits.
"it can be seen that due to the recent instability of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the variation of the virus affects macro expectations, the uncertainty of economic recovery increases, and after the previous consecutive sharp rise in iron ore prices, long positions have led to a certain decline in futures prices." Shenyin Wanguo futures research team said. But they said that to change the iron ore trend, it is necessary to break the expectations of the global economic recovery, the deterioration of the epidemic has temporarily failed to change the long-term direction, and there is a risk of pullback after the emotional concentration in the short term, but there is no logic of the downward trend.
They expect that under the current situation that the terminal demand is supported, the rigid demand for iron ore in the blast furnace will still be supported in absolute quantity, and during the winter storage period of the iron ore in the steel works before the Spring Festival, the purchasing demand for iron ore will not fall sharply, and the spot iron ore will still be strongly supported in the short term. In the long term, with the resilience of domestic terminal demand and the expectation of overseas economic repair difficult to be falsified in the first half of next year, iron ore far-month contracts are still driven by higher valuations after a pullback.
With the cold wave coming, the demand for thermal coal is still tight.
In terms of thermal coal, the impact of cold wave on demand is more intuitive. From December 28 to 31, the strongest cold wave weather this winter continues to affect the central and eastern regions of China. This cold wave weather process has a wide range of influence, a large cooling range, a sharp increase in heating pressure in various places, and a continuous rise in electricity demand across the country. At the same time, due to the continuation of the current domestic economic recovery, industrial power consumption is still expected to be strong. Therefore, the actual demand for coal is difficult to change the exuberant pattern.
In the face of a new round of cooling weather, the main person in charge of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission said in response to a reporter's question on energy supply in winter recently that the national power supply and demand situation has stabilized and the demand for thermal coal has increased, but the supply is generally stable and can meet the needs of production, life and other coal use. "in the near future, there will be continuous low temperature weather, and the national electricity demand is expected to rise." The official said that in order to make a good response, the National Development and Reform Commission will make every effort to ensure the power supply together with the parties concerned.
"We have made preparations in advance for the coming cold weather and formulated a careful emergency plan for coal supply to ensure the warmth of the people through the winter." The responsible person said: first, all efforts should be made to organize an increase in production and supply. Guide Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other major coal producing areas and key coal enterprises, on the premise of ensuring safety, speed up the release of production capacity, and do everything possible to meet the demand for coal. According to the situation of supply and demand, we should appropriately increase the import of coal, give priority to the need of coal for power generation and heating, and give full play to the supplementary regulation role of imported coal. The second is to speed up the improvement of coal storage level in power plants. Monitor the coal storage level of the national key power plants every day, track and grasp the power coal supply situation in time, and coordinate and solve the outstanding problems in the supply for the first time. The third is to strengthen the guarantee of coal use in key areas. For Hunan and Jiangxi, where the supply of power coal is relatively tight, coordinate the main coal producing areas and coal enterprises to guarantee the resources of the power plants with low coal storage level, coordinate the railway enterprises to optimize the transport structure, and give support to the maximum extent. The fourth is to organize emergency guarantee resources. Fifth, strengthen the emergency guarantee mechanism.
Looking at the supply side, Wei Ying said that close to New Year's Day, the number of coal mines in the main production areas has increased, the willingness to start work is not high in the context of ensuring safe production, and the release of raw coal production capacity in the producing area is still insufficient. "considering that the current sharp rise in coal prices has been much higher than the red operating range, the NDRC has repeatedly stated that it will intervene in market fluctuations through emergency plans for coal supply, and that it will appropriately increase coal imports according to the current situation, but the tight supply and demand pattern of Zhengzhou coal remains unchanged under peak season demand, and its price trend is still strongly supported." She suggested that in the near future, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the port coal customs clearance policy, as well as the regulation and control efforts of the NDRC's guaranteed supply policy.
Huatai Futures Research team believes that the daily consumption of power plants and heating enterprises is expected to further increase under the cold wave, and inventory decreases rapidly, but supply fails to keep up with demand, so it is difficult for power plants to replenish inventory, and the number of days available in inventory is relatively tight. At the same time, the demand for coal used by downstream chemical and building materials enterprises is still not reduced, and under the condition that the supply is not released and imports are not liberalized, the price of thermal coal is still difficult to fall. The team said that New Year's Day's newly purchased imported coal customs clearance will ease the current coal tension to a certain extent, but in order to achieve fundamental results, we still need to look at the dynamics of the main producing areas.
Everbright Futures Research team said that the main producing areas of thermal coal are fully produced under the guaranteed supply policy, but the increment is expected to be limited near the end of the year. From January, the Hohhot Railway Bureau began to carry out the ten-day planned shipment, which confirmed the strong willingness to ship and the tight transport capacity. The team believes that the momentum for coal prices to continue to rise sharply is running out, and as daily consumption slows down in mid-late January, imported coal is coming to Hong Kong one after another, when the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is expected to ease. However, there is not much room for thermal coal to decline sharply, and they expect thermal coal futures for May contracts to continue to look for a direction around 660mur690 yuan / ton as the central axis.
The supply of double coke market is tight, the trend may fluctuate at a high level.
Looking at the coke market, Wei Ying said that the 11th round of 100 yuan / ton increase is advancing, port trade affected by polluted weather has been suspended, regional supply constraints have prompted Shandong mainstream steel mills to quickly accept this round of price increases, and the coke spot market continues to be strong. In terms of supply, according to Mysteel research data, 6.62 million tons of backward coking capacity has been shut down nationwide since the middle of this month, and 4.7 million tons have yet to be shut down, while only 500000 tons of new capacity has been built during the period, and the replacement gap period will aggravate the shortage of coke supply during the year. On the demand side, the hot metal output is OK, the furnace demand is still strong, and the steel mills take the initiative to replenish the stock actively, the coking plant is shipped smoothly, and the coke demand end still has some support in the short term. Taken together, she thinks the coke trend or oscillation is on the strong side.
"at present, the mismatch pattern of coke supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term due to the continuous promotion of capacity loss. Coke production continued to decline, coke enterprises on-site inventory continued to remain low, while steel mill inventory fell further, about 1.5 days lower than the normal inventory availability of 15 days. Overall, short-term coke continues to be strong. " Huatai Futures Research Institute analysis said.
In terms of coking coal, the recent surge in coking coal is mainly due to growing concerns about supply shortages. Huatai Futures Research Institute said that because of the stricter impact of environmental protection on the import of Mongolian coal, the Jiayida supervision area of Ganqimodu Port did not receive the rest of the coal except for coal shed unloading, making the already tense coking coal market even more tense, and the overall spot market stable and strong. "at present, the supply of the producing areas is still relatively tight, and the output of the main producing areas remains low. Individual mining enterprises that have completed their comprehensive tasks have gradually begun to reduce production and stop production, and environmental warnings have been sounded in many places recently. as a result, the mode of automobile transportation has been hindered to a certain extent, and there is still a demand for replenishment in coking plants. The customs clearance policy for imported Australian coal has not been relaxed, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has declined again. " On the whole, they think that due to the huge profits of coke enterprises, the enthusiasm of production remains high, and the enthusiasm of replenishing the stock is good, the short-term operation of coking coal still maintains a strong trend.
The research and development team of CITIC Construction Investment Futures Industrial products said that the tightening of domestic coal mine safety inspection and environmental protection policies in December, coupled with maintenance or holiday plans in some coal mines at the end of the year, reduced coal production and the shortage of imported coal further tightened the overall supply of coking coal. At the same time, the rain and snow weather also has an adverse impact on the road transportation of coking coal. Looking at the demand side, the backward coking production capacity is gradually reduced, and the demand of coke enterprises should have been reduced, but high profits drive the top production of coke enterprises, and the purchasing enthusiasm of coke enterprises increases instead of decreasing. To sum up, they think that the short-term oscillation of coking coal futures is too strong, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of a sharp fall in futures prices caused by demand reduction.
The original title was: "A scary night!" Iron ore night trading fell 5%, the black market "cold wave", a piece of news is "even worse." Trump increases the amount of stimulus, but the Republicans are "against the water".
