Behind Xi'an 's move to cool the property market: new house prices have risen for 55 months, frequently staging "the Shake of a Thousand people".

SMM: after upgrading the regulation and control of the property market in June last year, Xi'an once again stepped in to reduce fever for the property market.

A few days ago, Xi'an Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, Xi'an Financial work Bureau, Xi'an Housing Provident Fund Management Center, Xi'an Natural Resources and Planning Bureau jointly issued the notice on further strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate market (hereinafter referred to as the "notice"), in the pre-sale license policy, adjustment of loan down payment ratio and pre-sale fund supervision and other aspects, issued corresponding control measures.

Zhang Bo, director of the branch of Anju Guest Room production Research Institute, pointed out that the continued rise in housing prices in Xi'an is an important reason for this regulation. "the price of new houses in Xi'an has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and appropriate adjustments have been made through policies. It is conducive to the smooth operation of local housing prices."

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of newly built commercial housing in Xi'an rose 0.5% month-on-month in October, up 7.6% from the same period last year. Since March 2016, house prices in Xi'an have risen for 55 months in a row.

Through administrative intervention, it is expected to change market expectations and strictly control the irrational rise in house prices. From the point of view of the regulation and control rules, reducing the leverage ratio of funds for second homes and large households will not only raise the threshold for this kind of demand to enter the market, but also control the number of investors getting on the bus. " Zhu Yu, a visiting professor at the School of Human Settlements, Xi'an Eurasian University, told reporters.

The demand for improvement will double in size in a short period of time.

Xi'an 's new property market policy is most concerned about the commercial loans for the purchase of second homes, as well as the adjustment of the down payment ratio of the provident fund.

The notice shows that households in Xi'an that already own a housing area of more than 144 square meters: for those who purchase a second apartment with an area of 144 square meters or less, the down payment proportion of commercial loans shall not be less than 60 percent; for those who purchase a second apartment with an area of more than 144 square meters, the proportion of the down payment of commercial loans shall not be less than 70 percent.

Analysts pointed out that the new policy of Xi'an property market further refines the down payment ratio of second homes, further raising the threshold for buyers who have bought a large area of homes to apply for commercial loans for second homes. The larger the housing area is, the higher the down payment proportion of the second home business loan will be, which restricts the buyers who have bought more than 144 square meters.

"the policy regulates the demand side more deeply, on the one hand, it further strengthens the protection of the first set of rigid demand, on the other hand, it adopts more financial measures to regulate and control the demand for two or more houses. While stabilizing house prices, these measures will not only help to reduce the financial risk of the real estate market, but also play a certain role in weakening the attribute of real estate investment. " Zhang Bo told the Financial Associated Press.

Judging from the current transaction structure of new houses in Xi'an, the transaction pays more attention to large areas and improved products.

Zhu Yu said in an interview with reporters that the demand for improvement in Xi'an market has surged in the past year, and the scale of demand growth has almost doubled in a short period of time.

According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, as of October this year, the clearance cycle of 70-90 square meters of products in Xi'an is as long as 24 months, and that of 90-140 square meters of products is about 10-11 months, while that of 140-200 square meters of large residential products is only 8-9 months.

"at present, the Xi'an market shows such characteristics: the inventory of rigid demand products is obvious, the improved products are relatively scarce, and the structural imbalance between supply and demand has put pressure on the price rise." Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said, "this new policy will raise the threshold for the purchase of large-scale products and, to a certain extent, control the number of improved customers, stabilize the structure of supply and demand, and restrain the rise in house prices at the same time."

The new policy issued in Xi'an has also strengthened the supervision of pre-sale funds and the risk prevention of construction capital, and further stressed that it will maintain the guidance of tightening regulation and strict supervision of the market order.

In addition, the "notice" makes it clear that Gaoling, Fengyi and other districts and counties that have not implemented the housing purchase restriction policy, as well as some areas of Xixian New area, should pay close attention to the market situation, ensure the demand for self-occupation, restrain investment speculation, and stabilize the development of the real estate market.

A number of industry interviewees told reporters that after the upgrading of this regulation and control, Xi'an real estate transaction volume will contract and decline in stages in the future, but in the long run, the development of the whole Xi'an real estate market will be more standardized and healthy.

The road to stabilizing the rise in house prices is long and long.

Behind Xi'an 's two attempts to regulate and control the property market in less than a year and a half, housing prices continue to have a "high fever".

"the rise in house prices in Xi'an is not a periodic rise, but a sustained rise. According to the monitoring data of the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in Xi'an have risen for more than four years in a row. " Zhu Yu believes that in the context of "housing speculation", in order to effectively control the rise in prices, the relevant departments have to upgrade regulation and control again.

Zhu Yu further said that as house prices continue to rise, the market is optimistic about the future investment expectations of the Xi'an property market and the space for price growth, which makes the enthusiasm for the influx of funds into the property market is high.

In fact, since 2020, the grand occasion of "Thousand people lottery" has been staged frequently in Xi'an property market. Statistics show that in November alone, there were 15 buildings with "thousands of people shaking".

Not only the new housing market, second-hand housing transactions are also rising. The heat of the property market is heating up, and it is also transmitted to the land market, which forms a mutual boost between the two.

According to the monitoring data of the Shell Research Institute, the planned floor area of residential land transactions in Xi'an increased by 46.1% in November compared with the same period last year, and the floor price of the transaction increased by 12.7% over the same period last year. Shell Research Institute believes that the high degree of activity in the land market has led to an increase in the expectation of the new housing market in Xi'an, as well as a rise in the average price of the local new housing market.

Xi'an Bureau of Statistics said in the Xi'an Economic and Social Development report in the first three quarters of 2020, "in the next stage, with the continuous reduction of market inventory, the investment improvement demand for housing in our city will be further strengthened."

Pan Hao told reporters that Xi'an property market transaction average price rise has attracted attention, the introduction of regulation and control policies, the core is to stabilize the price expectations of the new housing market.

In the view of Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the Yiju Research Institute, for some unrestricted areas in Xi'an, especially hot areas such as Xixian New area, it is also necessary to continue to observe market trends and prevent market speculation. "in these areas that are not included in the scope of regulation and control, if house prices continue to rise in the future, the possibility of government regulation and control will be quite high."

Zhang Bo believes that under the main tone of "housing without speculation", maintaining the smooth operation of the property market is the basic background for the introduction of policies in many cities, and from the thinking of upgrading regulation and control in cities such as Xi'an, there are two obvious characteristics worthy of attention.

"first of all, with house prices as the anchor, policy adjustments will be carried out in time once house prices show signs of rising too rapidly, which is clearly reflected in Shenzhen, Xi'an, Yinchuan and other cities; secondly, the degree of policy differentiation has increased, especially for the first and second homes, which includes not only the financial policy of down payment ratio and loans, but also the differentiation of lottery allocation policy." Zhang Bo said.