Macro Roundup (Nov 19)

Published: Nov 19, 2020 08:35 (GMT+8)
The dollar slipped for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, sliding to a more than one-week low, as positive vaccine news offset the surge in coronavirus cases and tighter economic restrictions across the United States and Europe.

SHANGHAI, Nov 19 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar slipped for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, sliding to a more than one-week low, as positive vaccine news offset the surge in coronavirus cases and tighter economic restrictions across the United States and Europe.

The market showed a little more appetite for risk-taking, with gains in currencies that rise in times of improving sentiment such as sterling, the New Zealand dollar, and Norwegian crown.

Pfizer announced that the final results from the late-stage trial of its COVID-19 vaccine showed it was 95% effective, giving relief to a pandemic-weary market. That followed news that Moderna Inc released preliminary data for its vaccine, showing 94.5% effectiveness.

That said, the number of reported global daily deaths from the coronavirus stood at 10,816 on Tuesday, according to a tally, the highest single-day death count. The United States, the worst-affected country worldwide, has reported about 11.38 million infections and 248,574 deaths since the pandemic started.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, boosted by a pop in Boeing shares, while investors digested more positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front.

Oil prices firmed by more than 1% on Wednesday on hopes OPEC and its allies will delay a planned increase in oil output and after Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was more effective than previously reported.

Brent crude rose 70 cents, or 1.6%, to $44.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 39 cents higher at an 11-week high of $41.82 per barrel.

Prices were also supported by a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. crude stockpiles last week.

Both contracts jumped by about $1 after Pfizer Inc said that final results from late-stage trial of its vaccine showed it was 95% effective. Last week it had put the efficacy at more than 90%.

Moderna Inc on Monday said that preliminary data for its vaccine also showed it was almost 95% effective.

Gold prices eased on Wednesday as optimism about Pfizer’s successful vaccine trials countered concerns over rising coronavirus infections and bets for further economic support.

Spot gold was down 0.3% to $1,872.38 per ounce. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.6% at $1,873.90.

“The rollout of positive vaccine developments is reducing gold’s lure as a safe haven. (Although) it still seems to be in a trading range, the big moves up seem to be finished for now,” said ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir.

U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc said it was set to apply for emergency U.S. authorization after final results from its vaccine trial showed a 95% success rate with two months of safety data.

Key economic data slated for release today include UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders for November, US Initial Jobless Claims as of November 14 and US Existing Home Sales for October.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
11 hours ago
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
Read More
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
Tanzania’s Imwelo selects processing route after gold recovery rises to 84.5%
[SMM Gold Flash] Lake Victoria Gold reported new metallurgical testwork for weathered ore at Area C of its fully permitted Imwelo Gold Project in Tanzania. Attrition scrubbing followed by desliming increased 24-hour gold extraction from 49.99% to 84.54% in agitated-leach testing. Bottle-roll recovery reached 88.15% after pretreatment, while gravity-recoverable gold also increased. The work was conducted by Nesch Mintech Tanzania in Mwanza. The company has identified attrition scrubbing and desliming as the preferred pretreatment route for further optimisation of the clay-rich near-surface material. Lake Victoria Gold says the results complement earlier work on deeper material, where recoveries of approximately 96–97% were reported. Importantly, the reported recoveries relate to tested pretreated fractions and do not yet represent overall whole-ore plant recovery; further mass-balance and optimisation work is planned.
11 hours ago
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
11 hours ago
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
Read More
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
Aurum drilling delivers 155 g/t gold hit at Côte d’Ivoire’s Boundiali
[SMM Gold Flash] Aurum Resources reported new assay results from 22 diamond holes totalling 6,172.8 metres at the BST1 deposit at its Boundiali Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire. The results include 2.63 metres at 76.74 g/t gold from 195.2 metres, including 1.3 metres at 155 g/t, together with 24 metres at 6.31 g/t from 108 metres, including 7 metres at 19.25 g/t. Several intersections extend beyond the existing BST1 resource envelope. The results will feed into Aurum’s planned Boundiali Mineral Resource update targeted for early Q4 2026. The company says mineralisation remains open along strike and at depth, while drilling continues across the project. The results are therefore an exploration and resource-growth development rather than additional production. Boundiali currently has a 3.22-million-ounce JORC Mineral Resource, while Aurum is advancing a definitive feasibility study.
11 hours ago
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
11 hours ago
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
Read More
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
Platinum Shows Stronger Inflation and Real-Rate Linkages Than Gold, Study Finds
[SMM Gold & PGM Flash] A new study published in the Journal of Commodity Markets finds that platinum has exhibited broader and more persistent co-movement with inflation and real interest rates than gold. Researchers Arusha Cooray and İbrahim Özmen examined monthly data from July 1999 through December 2024 across the US, Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands, using turning-point analysis, wavelet coherence and time-varying Granger-causality methods. The study found gold’s macroeconomic relationships were comparatively weaker and more fragmented, while platinum and silver showed broader synchronization, particularly in the US and Germany.​ The researchers attribute platinum’s stronger macroeconomic sensitivity in part to its substantial industrial exposure, meaning its price reflects not only monetary conditions but also manufacturing activity, investment and supply constraints. The findings do not establish platinum as a universally superior inflation hedge: the relationships varied across countries, periods and monetary-policy regimes. Instead, the study highlights a fundamental difference between the metals, with gold’s broader monetary and defensive role producing a different response to inflation and real-rate conditions.
11 hours ago