China’s copper cathode output rose 5.4% year on year in October

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, available supply in the Shanghai region is expected to remain tight. Although some imported copper has been arriving gradually during the day, the actual replenishment volume is relatively limited, and the downward pressure on spot premiums is still fairly constrained in the short term. However, as spot premiums stay high, downstream processing enterprises' acceptance of current prices continues to decline, wait-and-see sentiment in the market has strengthened somewhat, and procurement is gradually shifting toward essential demand. At the same time, with premiums at elevated levels, suppliers' willingness to sell has increased compared with earlier, and some supply previously registered as warrants has begun to flow into the spot market, though the overall released volume remains limited. On balance, tight supply still provides some support for premiums, but negative feedback from the demand side on high premiums is gradually emerging, and Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to pull back somewhat tomorrow.

[SMM Copper Cathode Export Update] In late September, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio pulled back to 7.6, and import losses widened to more than 1,500 yuan/mt. However, SMM data showed that on September 23, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract stood at a premium of 1,200-1,480 yuan/mt; on September 21, SMM copper inventories in major China's regions fell to 74,800 mt, at around the 1st percentile over the past year, with smelters holding scarce available cargoes and already oversold. The survey showed that smelters with copper concentrate processing trade with imported materials manuals and export qualifications have no significant export plans for the time being.