SMM11: today, the 2020 (Fifth) China Electrical Materials supply and demand Trading Summit, jointly organized by SMM (SMM) and Jinye Big Copper, co-sponsored by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Zhejiang Wire and Cable Industry Association and Huzhou Electrical Appliance Industry Chamber of Commerce, was successfully concluded. Speakers at the summit included Huang Chongqi, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Zhai Jianfei, secretary general of Shandong Wire and Cable Industry Association, Qian Peng, chief researcher of Hongze Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Liu Hongkuan, deputy director of the Institute of Electric function of Shanghai University of Science and Technology, Hou Shaofan, chairman of Bentakang holding Group Co., Ltd., Huang Weiping, vice president of China Metal Resources Utilization Co., Ltd., Slavko Panzalovic, regional sales manager of Nihov Machine Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Wang Chao, chief technical worker of Shandong Chuanghui New material Technology Co., Ltd., Zhu Ruoyi, copper analyst of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., and Ye Jianhua, Director of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.
At the meeting, a number of industry experts made a comprehensive interpretation of the new progress in the manufacturing technology of copper and copper alloy conductors, the development trend of the national cable industry, enterprise value preservation, advanced manufacturing technology of copper bars, changes in conductor demand in the cable industry, production technology and quality of recycled copper rods, new high-strength and high-conductivity aluminum alloy strands and electrical round aluminum rod technology, copper-aluminum rod market supply and demand situation, copper-aluminum price trend and prospect, etc.
Huang Chongqi, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, delivered a speech on the theme of "New Progress in the Manufacturing Technology of Copper and Copper Alloy conductors". His speech mainly focused on the new achievements and applications of copper and copper alloys at home and abroad in recent years. He pointed out that the total consumption of copper conductors for electrical engineering in China has accounted for about 1 of the corresponding international total. In 2019, the total consumption of copper and aluminum conductors in China is about 6.7 million tons (accounting for more than 60% of the total copper consumption in China) and 1.9 million tons respectively. The total sales output value of the wire and cable industry has reached 1.42 trillion yuan. In the large machinery industry, with the exception of the automobile industry, ranked second. The total consumption of copper conductors for electrical engineering in China has accounted for about 1x3 of the corresponding international total. In 2019, the total consumption of copper and aluminum conductors in China is about 6.7 million tons (accounting for more than 60% of the total copper consumption in China) and 1.9 million tons respectively. The total sales output value of the wire and cable industry has reached 1.42 trillion yuan. In the large machinery industry, with the exception of the automobile industry, ranked second. In recent years, new materials, new processes, new technologies, new equipment and new products related to the advanced manufacture of metal conductors have been emerging at home and abroad.
Huang Chongqi: the latest Technology, Application and Innovation in the manufacture of Copper and Copper Alloy conductors
Zhai Jianfei, secretary general of Shandong Wire and Cable Industry Association, brought a speech with the theme of "Analysis of the Development trend of China's Cable Industry." his speech mainly focused on the following four aspects: the situation of the cable industry in Shandong Province, the development of the national cable industry in the past decade, the current problems of the national cable industry, and the future development trend of the national cable industry. He pointed out that the wire and cable industry in Shandong Province started in the Qingdao Cable Factory in the 1950s. After 70 years of development, Shandong wire and cable industry has formed a complete manufacturing system with various varieties, and has a certain production capacity in the fields of high, medium and low voltage wire and cable, optical fiber and optical cable. As the wire and cable production enterprises have obvious economies of scale, so in the industrial structure, superior technology enterprises account for relatively small, and mainly distributed in the strong large enterprises, more than 90% of the industry are small and medium-sized enterprises. The current situation of low industrial concentration makes the market competition intensified and disorderly, the overall efficiency is low, it is also difficult to concentrate efforts and resources to develop enterprises and even the industry, seriously dragging down the high-quality development process of the industry.
[expert post] Zhai Jianfei: a complete understanding of the present situation, existing problems and future development trend of the cable industry
Qian Peng, chief researcher of Hongze Nonferrous Metals, brought a speech on the theme of "Copper price and enterprise value preservation under macro and micro linkage." his speech was mainly carried out from the aspects of US election discussion, macro and micro linkage, and enterprise value preservation. He pointed out that if the United States were to reverse the distribution of global trade costs, the long-standing friction between China and the United States would not have been changed by the change of president. The election of Biden is more conducive to emerging market asset prices and market sentiment because Biden is more ambitious on infrastructure spending, and he hopes to pass a $2 trillion infrastructure spending package. it aims to promote the development and investment of carbon-neutral and green energy solutions over a four-year period, while preferring the continuation of stimulus policies. On the contrary, if Trump is re-elected, policy uncertainty will increase further. In the aspect of hedging, when hedgers carry out hedging for the spot commodities they are going to buy or sell in the spot market, if there is no futures contract for the corresponding commodity, you can choose another futures contract of the related commodity which is different from the type of the spot commodity but has the same price trend and roughly the same price trend to do the hedging transaction. Generally speaking, the futures commodity chosen as a substitute had better be the substitute commodity of the spot commodity. The stronger the mutual substitution of the two commodities, the better the effect of hedging trading.
"[electric union] discussion on the US general election! Copper Price and Enterprise value preservation under the interaction of Macro and Micro
Liu Xinkuan, deputy director of the Electrical function Research Institute of Shanghai University of Science and Technology, delivered a speech on the theme of "interpretation of Advanced Manufacturing Technology of Copper bars". He mainly focused on copper bars and their production processes. He pointed out that the electrical copper bar is a kind of high current conductive copper, which is used in high and low voltage electrical appliances, switch contacts, power distribution equipment, bus grooves and other electrical equipment, and is also widely used in ultra high current smelting or electrolysis equipment such as metal smelting, electroplating, chemical caustic soda, etc. The production process of copper bar is mainly divided into traditional rolling and extrusion processes, with long process flow, complex process, high energy consumption and low material utilization. Continuous extrusion process is a new continuous extrusion technology, which can combine the advantages of the above two processes, such as good grain organization (comparable to hot rolling organization), short process, high yield, low investment in equipment and plant, and lower entry threshold for the industry.
"[expert paste] copper bar production process classification and key technology explanation
Hou Shaofan, chairman of Bundakang holding Group Co., Ltd., brought a speech with the theme of "interpretation of conductor demand changes in cable industry and prospect of copper futures price". His speech mainly focused on the steady increase in demand for wires and cables driven by new domestic infrastructure, the changes in conductor demand for wires and cables, the analysis of the cost pressure of cable enterprises, and the impact of the world political and economic environment on copper prices under the epidemic. As the state strictly controls the direction of housing speculation, the real estate market is much cooler than in previous years, and the future demand for copper will bring stable growth space with the development of new infrastructure construction and new energy industry. The uncertainty still lies in the economic stimulus policies of European and American countries in the international market. If we continue to implement the economic stimulus policy of zero or even negative interest rates, there will be no major wars and other force majeure within the foreseeable range, and the trend of copper prices may continue to strengthen. In the next 2-3 years, copper is expected to reach 10000 US dollars or even reach a record high in March. The lasting and far-reaching impact of the Sino-US trade war and the global epidemic control will also greatly affect the trend of copper prices.
[electrician Summit] interpretation of conductor demand changes in Cable Industry and Prospect of Copper Price
Huang Weiping, vice president of China Metal Resources Utilization Co., Ltd., brought a speech on the theme of "production technology and quality analysis of recycled copper rod". It mainly focuses on the explanation of the national standard to the copper rod, the development process of the recycled copper rod, the technological principle of the recycled copper rod, the quality analysis of the recycled copper rod and the judgment of its advantages and disadvantages. He pointed out that the current domestic production process of recycled copper rod is mainly as follows: "waste copper pretreatment, melting, refining, casting, rolling, cleaning and cooling," packaging. The key to this is the three processes of "waste purple copper pretreatment", "melting" and "refining", and the other follow-up processes have been developed to a more mature level. The treatment of waste purple copper is aimed at the structural characteristics and combustion heating mode of the refining furnace, which mainly includes sorting, packing, proportioning and so on. As far as possible to ensure that harmful impurities do not enter the furnace to avoid increasing the difficulty of refining and affecting product quality, production efficiency and so on. The main production process of low oxygen copper rod is usually shaft furnace + continuous casting and rolling (raw material is electrolytic copper plate, grade A low oxygen copper rod) or refining furnace + continuous casting and rolling (raw material is waste purple copper, recycled copper rod). The copper rod produced in the early stage in China is a black rod, which is not suitable for industrial development because of its rough craftsmanship, great environmental pollution and poor product quality. The coordination among the processes of copper rod processing is very important, especially the coordinated control of "three degrees" (cleanliness, temperature, speed) plays a decisive role in the quality of the final products.
"[Electrotechnical Summit] the process principle of regenerated copper rod the development history, quality analysis and quality judgment of low oxygen copper rod
Slavko Panzalovic, Regional sales Manager of Nihov Machine Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Germany, mainly shared the factors affecting the production of copper thin wire. The thin wire drawing ability refers to the usefulness of the front material and the drawing process to produce the multi-end drawing wire between 0.05mm and 0.15mm under sufficient process reliability. The factors affecting filament production mainly include cathode copper purity, casting process, continuous casting and rolling, up-drawing process, large drawing process and multi-end drawing process. In general, maintenance and cleaning are important for all equipment, especially for thin-line production, as the condition of the equipment has a great influence on the frequency of breakage. Finally, he said, a high level of process reliability can be achieved only when all connected processes are treated as a continuous system.
Wang Chao, the chief technical engineer of Shandong Chuanghui New material Technology Co., Ltd., brought a speech with the theme of "discussion on the technology of new high-strength and high-conductivity aluminum alloy strands and electrical round aluminum rods". It is mainly carried out from the following aspects: the preparation technology and ideas of 63% conductivity wires, the production and advantages of 61.5% heat-resistant wires with 8A07 conductivity, and the trend of increasing the electrical conductivity of 6201 Al-mg-Si alloy wires from 52.5% to 55%. He said that at present, China has been able to steadily produce heat-resistant aluminum alloy wires with a conductivity of 60%IACS, and has been well applied in many important domestic lines. With the in-depth study of heat-resistant aluminum alloy wires, the electrical conductivity of domestic heat-resistant temperature 150C conductors has reached or exceeded 60% IACS. after comprehensive testing by relevant testing institutions, after several years of tackling key problems, the successful preparation of heat-resistant aluminum alloy monofilament (long-term heat-resistant temperature 150C) and wire (long-term heat-resistant temperature 120C) with electrical conductivity 61%IACS has been realized. The engineering application of heat-resistant aluminum alloy wire with conductivity of 61%IACS has been completed. However, the national conditions of our country require not only the increase of transmission capacity, but also the low line loss in long-distance transmission, which requires us to develop in the direction of high conductivity in order to reduce line loss and save resources.
"[Electrotechnical Summit] discussion on the technology of new high-strength and high-conductivity aluminum alloy strands and electrical round aluminum rods
Zhu Ruoyi, a copper analyst at SMM, gave a speech on the theme of "2020-2021 China Copper and Aluminum Bar Market Prospect". She mainly shared the development of China's copper rod and aluminum rod industry. in addition, she also analyzed the development of the copper and aluminum rod terminal industry. She said that the raw materials of copper rod are mainly electrolytic copper and scrap copper, with the former accounting for 70%, while the processing end of copper rod is mainly divided into continuous casting and rolling and up-drawing method, and the consumer end of copper rod is mainly related to electric power, construction, home appliances, automobile, electronics and other fields. Imported continuous casting and rolling equipment mainly produces refined copper low oxygen rod, while domestic Shuhong continuous casting and rolling equipment produces waste copper low oxygen rod and refined copper low oxygen rod. The anaerobic rod is mainly produced by domestic up-drawing equipment (Wuxi Shengbao, Shanghai Light Industry, etc.). In 2019, China's copper production reached 18.36 million tons, of which the total output of copper rods was about 8.28 million tons. In the context of the domestic macroeconomic downturn and the slowdown in GDP growth, the growth rate of China's copper production has slowed significantly since 2014. According to SMM research, the current effective capacity utilization rate of scrap copper enterprises is about 70%. The price difference of fine copper rod is high, so scrap copper rod has obvious price advantage compared with refined copper rod, which supports the high operating rate of waste copper rod enterprises.
[electrician Summit] SMM practical Information: China's refined copper rod aluminum rod production capacity, new expansion, processing fees, terminal situation
Ye Jianhua, director of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., delivered a speech with the theme of "Copper reality and expected Game in the Post-epidemic period". Through a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic form, supply side, renewable resources policy, terminal demand, etc., the prices of electrolytic copper and aluminum in the second half of the year are predicted. He believes that terminal consumption has rebounded month-on-month since April, and white electricity and commercial vehicles have exceeded expectations, but they are still facing tremendous downward pressure from the same period last year, mainly as follows: the epidemic caused consumption in the real estate and air-conditioning industries to fall to an all-time low, and consumption rebounded strongly in the second quarter; cable consumption was seriously lower than expected in the third quarter, dragging down copper consumption in the second half of the year; and unexpected growth in the automotive sector, but led to limited copper consumption. In addition, he said he focused on the start of consumption in the fourth quarter. On the one hand, the gradual repair of the global economy and abundant global liquidity have contributed to the improvement of market confidence. On the other hand, the improvement of fundamentals than expected and the improvement of macro-level linkage resonance can better promote the copper price. Without considering the background of the global large-scale re-outbreak of the epidemic, the LME copper price is expected to run at 6600-7100 US dollars / ton and 50500-53500 yuan / ton in China.
[electrician Summit] the Game between reality and expectation of Copper Market during the epidemic period after SMM:
