[SMM Metal Breakfast] the live broadcast of the US election * it will take time for copper production to fully resume * the price of depressed iron and lithium in the lower reaches continues to decline.

[live US election] Biden has won 264 electoral votes and Trump 214 (updating)

[overnight quotation] the outer disk metal market rose across the board, Lun Zinc rose 1.67%, and US stocks closed 3.8% higher.

[macro outlook] pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to October 31

"Click to see more metal futures.

According to the latest statistics in the United States, Biden has just won 16 electoral votes in Michigan and has won a total of 264 electoral votes, while Trump has won 214 electoral votes.

[us media: Michigan reversal, Biden temporarily overtook Trump] the vote is nearing the end, with the exception of several major swing states still in fierce competition, the overall situation in other states has been basically decided. Trump has declared victory in a speech that ended overnight, but Democrats have said it will not be over until the last vote is issued.

[novel coronavirus confirmed more than 90,000 cases on Election Day in the United States] the latest data from Johns Hopkins University show that a total of 91530 cases confirmed by COVID-19 were confirmed in the United States on November 3, the second highest on record. So far, the United States has an average daily increase of 86300 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 21 states reported a record daily increase within an average of seven days on November 3.

[heavy weight! Trump won several key swing states, and the final battle depends on Pennsylvania.] on the evening of November 3, US Eastern time, US states closed their votes in the general election one after another. According to the results of some state elections that have already been voted on, the competition between Trump and Biden is still fierce, and the balance of victory has not yet shifted significantly to one side. Although Trump is almost certain to win the key swing states Florida and Ohio, he still needs to win a number of key swing states, such as North Carolina. Analysts believe that the next competition point of the election will be concentrated in Pennsylvania. The state's results will be announced 1-3 days after the election, so election day will become election week.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) was trading at 6.6237 yuan against the dollar at 05:59 in Beijing, up 592 points from late Tuesday in New York, and was traded in a range of 6.7745-6.6202 yuan.

Today's focus

[SMM Analysis: the buyer hesitates to negotiate US $88 / ton of imported copper Benchmark in 2021] after entering November, foreign trade market participants have put the signing of the long order next year on the agenda. According to SMM, the long order premium of electrolytic copper sent by Codelco to China in 2021 is proposed to be 88 US dollars / ton, which is the same as the 2020 level. Many domestic traders have received the offer, but have not accepted it. "View details

[SMM analysis: plate anode copper import levy gold part value-added tax on anode copper import geometry] according to SMM understanding, in the actual implementation, the customs has begun to levy plate anode copper gold part value-added tax, but the traceability part has not yet been levied. The market is more concerned about whether this part of VAT can be offset as an income, because domestic gold sales are exempt from VAT, that is, this part of gold production does not generate output tax when it is sold domestically, and it is doubtful whether it can deduct copper partial output tax market. As a result, according to SMM, due to greater uncertainty, negotiations on long import orders for 2021 have to be postponed, and it is expected that there will be a ladder price difference for anode copper with different gold content. "View details

[SMM analysis: it will take time for Peruvian copper production to fully recover from the month-on-month decline in copper production in September.] according to an announcement issued by the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines, Peru's copper production in September 2020 was 171800 tons, down 11.4 percent from the previous month, and 15.7 percent lower than the same period last year. From January to September, copper production totaled 1.5138 million tons, down 16.6 percent from the same period last year. In addition, Peru's copper ore exports fell 25.3% from January to August compared with the same period last year. "View details

[November tin price: supply is still tight spot inventory decline supports Shanghai tin] with regard to November tin price, SMM believes that looking ahead, we think we can take a cautiously optimistic view on tin price. The main supporting factors come from the macro-loose monetary environment and the expectation of continued tension on the raw material side. The expectation of a continuing shortage of raw material supplies comes from the current situation encountered by tin mining and transportation in Myanmar. "View details

[stainless steel inventory at the end of October increased by about 4% over September] at the end of October, the total inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 32000 tons to 859000 tons, or about 4%, of which the inventory of 300 series stainless steel increased by 42000 tons. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the impact of the National Day in October, there is a certain decline in market trading volume, on the other hand, production remains high, while the growth rate of market demand is lower than that of supply, and market inventory has accumulated to a certain extent. "View details

According to SMM, the second meeting of the Electrolytic Manganese Union may be able to plan and adjust the performance of the current imbalance between supply and demand, but the implementation of specific methods is still based on the results of the meeting. "View details

[lithium salt prices rise downstream depressed iron lithium prices continue to explore] recently, lithium salt prices have risen, the power market demand is relatively good, iron and lithium factories are basically full production, supply is tight, but battery enterprises have seriously depressed prices, in order to maintain long-term orders, iron and lithium enterprises have been forced to reduce prices, and cost pressure has increased. From the point of view of the energy storage market, 5G base stations began to tender for orders next year, coupled with the hot electric two-wheeler market, the demand for iron lithium further increased, but there are more small and medium-sized iron lithium factories, it is more difficult to enter the supply chain of large factories, the market competition is fierce, iron and lithium prices are still under pressure.

[the price of manganese purchased by some steel mills continues to be weak] at present, the terminal demand for electrolytic manganese in China has a small number of transactions, and the price continues to drop by 100,200 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. In addition, Xinjiang Baosteel, Hegang and other enterprises began to purchase metal manganese products in November. I have heard that spot negotiations in the market have reached 9900 yuan / ton, so the pricing of domestic steel mills has become the focus of the market, and exports in overseas markets are pessimistic in the fourth quarter. Generally speaking, SMM believes that the total amount of electrolytic manganese is too much and the price of manganese is difficult to rise in the short term.

[SMM: discount policy supports a steady rebound in magnesium prices] on the one hand, due to the positive signal released by the government's capital subsidy policy, the strong intention to protect the market has enhanced the confidence of magnesium factories and is positive for the magnesium market. On the other hand, magnesium prices fell too fast last week, lower than the expected market price of magnesium factories, and magnesium factories are more willing to adjust prices. Demand side, the last two days downstream delivery is more active, in addition to rigid demand customers, there are some downstream customers to replenish the market bullish. Considering that this price increase is still in its infancy, if the market acceptance is high and the downstream trading volume continues to keep up, it is not impossible for magnesium prices to usher in a sustained upward trend in the later stage. SMM analysis believes that, taking into account the current magnesium price there is a certain space to explore, the recent magnesium ingot market may usher in a wave of rising market.

SMM thread terminal demand survey: the peak season does not live up to market expectations, how long does the steel need to continue? On the whole, since October, terminal enterprises have lived up to market expectations, and most of them have entered the rush and demand season. In terms of sustainability, except for the seasonal weakening of enterprise start-up in Northeast and North China, other parts of the country are still in the peak season of construction. At the same time, the increase in new construction and completed projects at the end of the year will further boost the demand for accelerated construction. It is expected that high "steel demand" will continue to support the strong operation of building materials prices in the short term, while in the medium to long term, under the influence of factors such as weaker demand in the north, gradual southward movement of northern materials, and increased financial pressure on terminal enterprises at the end of the year, building materials prices may be under pressure. "View details

[SMM thread: inventory continues to be rapidly eliminated, Hangzhou thread prices are rising aggressively] this week Hangzhou thread inventory 659000 tons, month-on-month ratio of-50, 000 tons, year-on-year + 349000 tons. Hangzhou thread continues to go to the warehouse quickly this week, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market remains active. "View details

[interpretation of SMM Hot Volume inventory: Shanghai inventory decline needs to be vigilant against the risk of northward increment] in the short term, the spot price of the market is expected to remain strong under the support of falling inventory. But at the same time, it also takes into account that it is gradually separated from the spot price of the north, which may induce the north wood to move southward in large quantities. Therefore, it is suggested that in the short term, fast-in and fast-out, high-level storage is the main, to guard against the follow-up northern resources to the south in large quantities of the risk. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: output of 10 non-ferrous metals from January to September increased by 3.5% over the same period last year] according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the output of 10 non-ferrous metals was 45.18 million tons, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year. According to the statistics of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the prices of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc have remained high since July, exceeding the pre-epidemic level. from January to September, the average spot prices of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc were 46923 yuan / ton, 13703 yuan / ton, 14780 yuan / ton and 17724 yuan / ton, respectively, down 1.8%, 1.6%, 12.2% and 15.7% from the same period last year. "View details

[Nevada Copper says it needs more money to increase production capacity] Nevada Copper said Tuesday it will need more money over the next four months to complete production at an underground mine in Pumpkin Valley. Due to geotechnical changes caused by drilling in the upper southeast, Nevada Copper chose to modify its mining plan, which is expected to further reduce the risk of the project but increase costs in the short term. The copper miner said it was already in discussions with its lender, KfB, and had received a $2000-$30 million credit line from a third party to finance its increased cash needs. Discussions with other potential sources of funding are also ongoing, it added.

[production at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine fell in September while Codelco production increased] according to government figures released on Tuesday, copper production at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine, the world's largest copper mine, fell in September, while Chilean state copper company (Codelco) production increased as the COVID-19 epidemic in the South American country continued. "View details

[the project with an annual output of 100000 tons of recycled aluminum alloy officially settled in Dongchuan Park] on October 29th, the management committee of Dongchuan re-employment characteristic Industrial Park and Yunnan Zhongli Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. formally signed the project investment cooperation agreement, which also marks the official settlement of the 100000 tons recycled aluminum alloy project in Dongchuan Park. The project covers an area of 46 mu, with an estimated investment of 150 million yuan, and the construction period of the project is 12 months. after the project is completed and put into production, it is expected to pay 50 million yuan in tax every year and employ about 200 workers. Yan Jing, deputy head of the district government, Li Ziqiang, deputy director of the management committee, Lei Yun and relevant departments of the district attended the signing ceremony. "View details

[Yunnan Aluminum shares: successfully bid for 135000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Shandong Huayu with 539 million yuan] A few days ago, Yunaluminum shares issued an announcement that it successfully bid for 135000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Shandong Huayu with 539 million yuan. Prior to this, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. held the 35th meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors and the 2019 shareholders' meeting on April 28, 2020 and May 19, 2020. the proposal on participating in bidding for 135000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and related transactions of Shandong Huayu Alloy material Co., Ltd. "View details

[five lithium battery giants enter the field of two-wheeled vehicles] recently, BYD's independent battery brand Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. held the first batch of Didi citrus batteries offline ceremony in Shenzhen. Sure enough, Biak has officially entered the field of electric two-wheelers. With the entry of BYD, the current five giants of power batteries, Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Lishen Battery and BYD have all entered the field of electric bicycles!

[another US $500m LG Chemical will expand the cylindrical battery production capacity of the Nanjing factory] it is understood that recently, LG Chemical Co., Ltd. signed an agreement with Nanjing Economic Development District, LG Chemical will invest another 500 million US dollars to build cylindrical car power batteries in Nanjing Economic Development District. In addition to supplying Tesla, the products are also expected to supply BMW. "View details

On Thursday, November 5, gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed down 1.09 per cent at 398.81 yuan / g, while silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed down 0.86 per cent at 5052.0 yuan / kg on Thursday, November 5.

[China Iron and Steel Association: steel social inventory decreased by 890000 tons to 11.27 million tons in late October] according to CISA data, in late October, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 20 cities was 11.27 million tons, a decrease of 890000 tons, or 7.3%, compared with the previous ten-day period. the month-on-month decline has expanded; inventory has shown a downward trend recently. "View details

[Japan Iron and Steel Association: 24.64 million tons of steel exports fell 3.1% from January to September compared with the same period last year] recent data released by the Japan Iron and Steel Association (JISF) show that in the first nine months of this year, Japan's total steel product exports fell 3.1% from a year earlier to 24.64 million tons. From January to September, the largest export destination of Japanese steel products was South Korea, down 8.5% from the same period last year. From January to September, Japanese steel exports to China were 1.93 million tons, down 22.6% from the same period last year. According to the data, Japan exported 2.49 million tons of steel products in September, down 3.6 per cent from the previous month and 18.8 per cent from a year earlier.

[European Iron and Steel Association predicts EU apparent steel consumption will decline 14.6% year on year in 2020] European Iron and Steel Association (Eurofer) recently predicted that EU apparent steel consumption will fall 14.6% year-on-year in 2020, an improvement from the previous forecast of 16.6%, and is expected to rebound by 13% in 2021. Real EU steel consumption is likely to fall 11.5 per cent in 2020, according to Eurofer, and is expected to grow by 9.3 per cent in 2021 based on expectations of production growth in the main steel industry. The economic climate and industrial confidence index are likely to decline in October following a rise in June-September due to a new wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in European countries in recent weeks.

Macro focus

[the US Treasury increases quarterly bond issuance to a record $122 billion] the US Treasury further increased its long-term bond issuance in the coming months in anticipation of more fiscal stimulus measures to support the economic recovery. While the outcome of the US election remains uncertain and the outlook for the stimulus bill is uncertain, the Treasury said on Wednesday that it would issue $122 billion of medium-and long-term Treasuries in next week's quarterly refinancing operations, setting a record for the third consecutive quarter.

Is it bad for non-farm events in the United States in October? Data released on Wednesday night showed that small non-farmers in the United States in October were far worse than expected, and that the road to economic recovery was still bumpy at a time when a new wave of outbreaks and fiscal stimulus measures were difficult to give birth. The market has not changed much since the release of the data. Specifically, ADP employment in the United States increased by 365000 in October, much lower than the expected figure of 650000, and the previous figure was revised up to 753000.

[the troika is expected to speed up the process of economic recovery in October] in the fourth quarter, the troika that drives economic growth is expected to speed up. Institutions generally predict that the growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to accelerate in October, giving a strong boost to consumption during the National Day holiday, while exports will maintain rapid growth.

[World Health Organization (WHO): more than 47.36 million confirmed cases by COVID-19 globally] according to World Health Organization (WHO) 's latest real-time statistics, as of 16:00 central European time on November 4th (23:00 on November 4th), there were a total of 47362304 confirmed cases and 1211986 deaths worldwide. On the 4th, there were 436068 new confirmed cases and 7084 deaths confirmed by COVID-19 worldwide.

Terminal information

[it is rumored that Tesla will hold a conference call with the Thai Ministry of Industry and economy to push forward the expansion plan] it is reported that Tesla will hold a conference call with the Thai Ministry of Industry and economy. It is reported that the Thai Investment Promotion Committee (BOI) is expected to draw up proposals for the renewal of the second round of electric vehicle investment plan in early November 2020. The plan will provide an eight-year corporate tax credit for the promotion of electric vehicles.

[Guangzhou Automobile Honda New Energy vehicle (annual production capacity 120000 vehicles) the second public announcement of environmental impact of the construction project (released on the official website of Guangzhou Automobile Honda)] according to the Environmental impact Assessment Law of the people's Republic of China, the regulations on Environmental Protection Administration of Construction projects (decree No. 682of the State Council) and other relevant laws and regulations, To carry out the environmental impact assessment of the construction project of GAC-Honda new energy vehicles (with an annual production capacity of 120000 vehicles). In accordance with the relevant requirements of the measures for Public participation in Environmental impact Assessment (decree No. 4 of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment) (2018), the public participation in the environmental impact assessment of this project is announced for the second time to solicit public opinions.

[Honda's sales in China rose 22.3% in October compared with the same period last year] Honda China today released October sales figures, of which terminal sales reached 180600 in a single month, up 22.3% from a year earlier, setting an all-time high for four consecutive months.

[Jingyuntong: total investment of 7 billion yuan 24GW single crystal project] Jingyuntong announced that the company signed the "Leshan Municipal people's Government, Leshan Wutongqiao District people's Government, Beijing Jingyuntong Science and Technology Co., Ltd. 24GW single Crystal Rod and cutting Project Investment Agreement" with the people's Government of Leshan City and Wutongqiao District of Leshan City. The company reached a cooperation intention on the construction of 24GW single crystal pull rod, cutting project and related supporting facilities in Wutongqiao District of Leshan City. The total investment of the project is expected to be 7 billion yuan.