SMM Morning Comments (Nov 4): Shanghai base metals rose for the most part as investors wait for US election results

Published: Nov 04, 2020 09:49 (GMT+8)

Save

Nonferrous metals on the SHFE were mostly higher on Wednesday morning, and their counterparts on the LME rose across the board, as investors wait for the result of the US presidential election between incumbent Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

SHANGHAI, Nov 4 (SMM) — Nonferrous metals on the SHFE were mostly higher on Wednesday morning, and their counterparts on the LME rose across the board, as investors wait for the result of the US presidential election between incumbent Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Shanghai base metals mostly advanced in overnight trading. Copper added 0.29%, zinc inched up 0.43%, aluminium rose 0.17%, nickel rose 0.42% and tin strengthened 1.19%, while lead slid 0.28%.

The LME complex rose across the board on Tuesday. Tin was the best performer with a rise of 1.26%. Copper advanced 0.1%, lead edged up 0.5%, aluminium climbed 1.18%, zinc increased 0.1% and nickel went up 0.89%.

Copper: Three-month LME copper added 0.1% to end at $6,779.5/mt on Tuesday, and is likely to trade between $6,760-6,820/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2012 copper contract advanced 0.29% to close at 51,680 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and it is expected to move between 51,400-51,900 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen at 100-150 yuan/mt.

US stocks hit the biggest increase yesterday in the past two days in September, and the US dollar index also fell due to the stimulus policy that may come after the election, supporting copper prices. However, under the influence of the uncertainty of the election results and the possible turbulence, the market still has risk aversion, and the copper price has not increased significantly.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium climbed 1.18% to close at $1,893/mt on Tuesday, with open interest rising to 742,000 lots. It is expected to trade between $1,870-1,910/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2012 aluminium contract rose 0.47% to settle at 14,830 yuan/mt on Tuesday night, and is likely to trade between 14,700-15,000 yuan/mt today. Fluctuations caused by macro changes will come under scrutiny.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc rose 0.1% to close at $2,546/mt on Tuesday. Zinc stocks at LME-listed warehouses fell 550 mt to 218,650 mt. The weakness of the US dollar boosted the general growth of nonferrous metals, and the positive manufacturing data combined with the prospect of the fiscal stimulus bill after the election also boosted the trend of LME zinc. At present, the market mainly focuses on the US election, and the market sentiment is highly tense. The election results will be monitored in the near term. It is likely to trade between $2,520-2,570/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2012 zinc contract climbed 0.43% to end at 19,905 yuan/mt in overnight trading. The continuous decline of domestic zinc TC shows that the supply side is still tight, and the support of the supply side still exists. The market is concerned about the US election, and the uncertainty still exists. The December zinc contract is expected to move between 19,500-20,000 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 140-150 yuan/mt.

Nickel: The most-active SHFE 2102 nickel contract climbed 0.42% to close at 116,710 yuan/mt on Tuesday. Before the election results were announced, the market turnover remained low. Despite the rising risk appetite, there are still signs of anxiety in the market. Support above will be seen from 117,500 yuan/mt today.

Lead: Three-month LME lead rose to an intraday high at $1,827.5/mt before repairing some gains to settle 0.5% higher at $1,805/mt on Tuesday. The LME lead is expected to keep fluctuating in the near term.

The most-active SHFE 2012 lead contract trended lower on Tuesday night, ending 0.28% lower at 14,310 yuan/mt. The boost of downstream consumption is not enough to support the strengthening of lead prices, and the contract is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term.

Tin: Three-month LME tin closed up 1.26% at $18,060/mt on Tuesday, after hitting an intraday low at $17,890/mt earlier in the session. Before the election results were announced, the market turnover remained low. Despite the rising risk appetite, there are still signs of anxiety in the market. The results of the US presidential election will be monitored in the near term. The trend of the US dollar has a guiding role in the trend of LME tin. Support below will be seen from $17,300/mt today. Support above will be seen from $18,300/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2101 tin contract closed up 0.32% at 146,290 yuan/mt on Monday night. The market focuses on the macro situation and the guidance provided by LME tin. Support below will be seen from 144,000 yuan/mt today. Support above will be seen from 148,000 yuan/mt today.

Market commentary Copper Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel Tin

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

3 hours ago

Sulphuric Acid Shortage Emerges as a Constraint on Zambia’s Copper Growth

Zambia’s sulphuric acid shortage is becoming a growing constraint on copper production and refining. Jubilee Metals reported acid costs rising by more than 200% in Q4 FY2026, while Sable cathode output fell to 250 t from 361 t in Q3. Government data also showed small-scale copper production down 35.2% YoY in H1 2026, highlighting the sector’s exposure to tight acid availability and higher processing costs.

3 hours ago

5 hours ago

Selkirk Copper Targets H2 2028 Restart of Minto Mine Following Positive PEA

Selkirk Copper Mines has outlined a potential restart of the past-producing Minto copper-gold-silver mine in Yukon, Canada, following the completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) that supports first concentrate production in the second half of 2028. The PEA outlines a 13-year mine life based on combined open-pit and underground mining, with operations designed around an average mining and milling rate of 4,100 mt/day. At peak production, the project is expected to produce approximately 27,200 mt/year of copper-equivalent contained in concentrate, equivalent to around 48,700 mt/year of high-grade copper-gold-silver concentrate. Initial capital required to re-establish production is estimated at C$186 million. Using the study's planning prices of US$5.00/lb copper, US$3,600/oz gold and US$50/oz silver, the PEA estimates an after-tax NPV at a 7% discount rate of C$494 million, an after-tax IRR of 47.8% and a payback period of approximately 1.9 years from first production. Minto benefits from substantial existing infrastructure from its previous operations, including a 4,100 mt/day processing plant as well as existing open-pit and underground infrastructure. Selkirk Copper said assessments of the site's existing infrastructure and equipment found that the majority remains in good working order and requires only minor attention and refurbishment. The company is targeting first concentrate production in H2 2028, followed by full ramp-up of mining, milling and concentrate production by H1 2029. A feasibility study is scheduled to begin in Q4 2026, while amended permit applications are also expected to be submitted during the fourth quarter. Selkirk Copper said a restart decision is targeted following completion of the feasibility study and receipt of permit amendments in H2 2027. The Minto PEA outlines a potential pathway for a previously producing copper operation to return to the market by 2028, supported by existing processing and mining infrastructure that could reduce the capital and construction requirements compared with a greenfield project. However, the 27,200 mt/year peak production figure represents copper-equivalent contained in concentrate rather than contained copper alone. The restart also remains subject to further feasibility work, permitting and project execution, making progress toward a restart decision in H2 2027 an important milestone to watch.

5 hours ago

Tschudi Copper Mine Targets Early-2027 Mining Restart in Namibia

Consolidated Copper Corp (CCC) is targeting an early-2027 restart of open-pit mining at the Tschudi copper mine in northern Namibia, with an estimated US$30–40 million of development capital required to bring mining operations back online. Under the planned heap-leach restart, Tschudi is expected to reach run-rate copper cathode production of more than 14,000 mt/year over an initial 10-year mine life. CCC expects to complete a definitive feasibility study for the heap-leach mining restart in September 2026, with open-pit mining targeted to recommence in early 2027. The planned restart relates specifically to open-pit mining at Tschudi. Copper processing operations were restarted in 2024 using existing stockpiles, with CCC reporting production of more than 7,600 mt of copper cathode conforming to LME Grade A specifications as of June 2026. Tschudi previously produced approximately 75,000 mt of copper cathode between 2015 and 2020 before being placed on care and maintenance. The operation already has significant processing infrastructure in place, including a 2.88 million mt/year SX/EW plant. According to CCC, the US$30–40 million restart capital would primarily cover dewatering, mining mobilisation and demobilisation, a mobile crushing plant and development of a leach pad. CCC is also studying a larger expansion targeting Tschudi's sulphide resources. The concept includes construction of a 3 million mt/year flotation plant alongside the existing SX/EW operation, potentially increasing average annual production to approximately 30,000 mt of copper-equivalent over more than 10 years. The expansion remains under study and is separate from the planned heap-leach mining restart. The planned restart of open-pit mining at Tschudi could strengthen Namibia's copper supply by supporting run-rate cathode production of more than 14,000 mt/year if the project proceeds according to schedule. Existing SX/EW infrastructure and the relatively modest US$30–40 million restart capital requirement could support a faster return to mining compared with a greenfield development. However, the early-2027 restart remains a company target, with completion of the definitive feasibility study and subsequent mine mobilisation among the key milestones to watch.

5 hours ago