SMM Morning Comments (Oct 27): Shanghai base metals mostly weakened on rising COVID-19 cases, US stimulus concerns

Published: Oct 27, 2020 10:00
Profits at China’s industrial firms jumped 10.1% year-on-year in September, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

SHANGHAI, Oct 27 (SMM) — Shanghai base metals were mostly lower on Tuesday morning, while their counterparts on the LME set for a mixed start.  

 

Profits at China’s industrial firms jumped 10.1% year-on-year in September, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

 

Shanghai base metals closed mixed in overnight trading. Copper weakened 0.79%, lead slid 0.46% and tin edged down 0.02%, while aluminium inched up 0.03%, zinc rose 0.13% and nickel climbed 0.55%.  

The LME complex fell across the board for a session straight session. Tin declined 1.82% to lead the losses, copper fell 1.5%, aluminium shed 1.11%, zinc slipped 0.26%, lead weakened 0.2% and nickel edged down 0.06%.

 

Copper: Three-month LME copper cruised lower on Monday, ending 1.5% weaker at $6,773/mt, and is likely to trade between $6,740-6,820/mt today.

The most-traded SHFE 2012 copper contract fell 0.79% to end at 51,520 yuan/mt in overnight trading. It is expected to move between 51,300-51,800 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen slightly lower at 40-100 yaun/mt.

Overnight, the US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, rebounded, returning above 93, which pressured copper futures. Besides, talks on a new COVID-19 aid bill in Washington remain in limbo, and new virus cases spiked in the United States and Europe, which boosted pessimistic sentiment among investors.

 

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium shed 1.11% to settle at $1,822/mt on Monday, after hitting its lowest in more than two weeks at $1,821.5/mt earlier in the session. It is likely to fluctuate between $1,810-1,850/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2011 aluminium contract inched up 0.03% to close at 14,755 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is expected to move between 14,500-14,900 yuan/mt today.

 

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc slid 0.26% to close at $2,539.5/mt in choppy trading on Monday. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses expanded 1,600 mt or 0.73% to 220,975 mt. Overnight, nonferrous metals on the LME fell across the board overnight as the US dollar gained, rising for a second straight session. Besides, expectations of a new COVID-19 stimulus package being signed in Washington before the Nov. 3 presidential election are diminishing, and new coronavirus infections surged in the US and Europe, which boosted risk-off sentiment among investors. LME zinc is likely to trade between $2,520-2,570/mt today.

The most-traded SHFE 2012 zinc contract rose 0.13% to close at 19,695 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Zinc social inventories extended gains as environmental restrictions in the north affected some downstream consumption. The December contract is expected to trade between 19,400-19,900 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 110-130 yuan/mt against the November contract.

 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE 2012 nickel contract rebounded in overnight trading, ending 0.55% higher at 119,600 yuan/mt, with open interest rising 2,291 lots to 107,000 lots.

 

Lead: Three-month LME lead weakened 0.2% to close at $1,776/mt on Monday, falling for three consecutive days.

The most-active SHFE 2012 lead contract closed 0.46% weaker at 14,190 yuan/mt in overnight trading, after hitting its lowest since June at 14,050 yuan/mt earlier in the session.

 

Tin: Three-month LME tin tumbled to a three-week low at $17,750/mt on Monday before reversing some losses to end 1.82% lower at $18,075/mt. LME tin is likely to continue to test support from the $18,000/mt mark.

The most-liquid SHFE 2012 tin contract edged down 0.02% to settle at 144,520 yuan/mt in overnight trading, after hitting a one-month low at 142,340 yuan/mt earlier in the session. It is expected to move between 140,000-146,000 yuan/mt today.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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