SMM: the International wrought Copper Commission (IWCC) revised its copper demand forecast for this year and next on Thursday as consumption began to recover from the epidemic, but 2020 is still expected to be the first year of annual demand decline in more than a decade.
IWCC expects refined copper demand to be 22.9 million tons this year, down 4.6% from the previous year, with a decline in all regions.
"under the global crisis, this will be the first time that demand for refined copper has fallen since the financial crisis in 2009," Mark Loveitt, president of IWCC, said at a webinar.
However, Loveitt pointed out that the latest forecast was nearly 300000 tons higher than IWCC's estimate in May. The industry group expects demand to recover 5 per cent in 2021, up from a previous estimate of 4.4 per cent.
Copper prices rose above the $7000 mark on Wednesday for the first time since June 2018, helped by hopes of a US stimulus package, a Chilean mining strike, expectations of healthy Chinese demand and a stronger renminbi.
China, the number one consumer, imported a record amount of copper this year.
Demand for refined copper in China is likely to fall 0.4 per cent this year, but will increase 4.5 per cent next year, according to IWCC.
Loveitt said that while orders from copper manufacturers for copper bars, bars and tubes were now seeing an increase, demand was still well below 2019 levels.
As the economy begins to return to normal, demand for refined copper will increase in 2021. But much will depend on the impact of the epidemic. "
"at best, demand could be flat next year as in 2019," Loveitt said.
