SMM Morning Comments (Oct 16): Shanghai base metals rose for the most part, the LME complex mostly fell

Published: Oct 16, 2020 10:19
Shanghai base metals cruised higher for the most part on Friday morning, while their counterparts on the LME mostly weakened on larger-than-expected US weekly jobless claims.

SHANGHAI, Oct 16 (SMM) — Shanghai base metals cruised higher for the most part on Friday morning, while their counterparts on the LME mostly weakened on larger-than-expected US weekly jobless claims.  

 

Shanghai base metals mostly closed in positive territory in overnight trading. Copper rose 0.86%, aluminium climbed 0.17%, zinc added 0.73% and nickel advanced 0.87%, while lead shed 0.38% and tin edged down 0.1%.

The LME complex ended mixed on Thursday. Copper added 0.96%, aluminium rose 0.51% and zinc climbed 0.99%, while lead weakened 0.22%, nickel slid 0.77% and tin fell 0.3%.

 

Copper: Three-month LME copper settled 0.96% firmer at $6,779/mt on Thursday, and is likely to trade between $6,730-6,800/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2011 copper contract cruised 0.86% higher to end at 51,680 yuan/mt in overnight trading. It is expected to move between 51,400-51,900 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen higher at 180-230 yuan/mt.  

China’s new yuan loans and social financing data topped expectations as its economy has been recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. The producer price index (PPI) for September inched up 0.1% on the month, but fell 2.1% on the year. In addition, US Democrats and Republicans made some progress in talks on COVID-19 stimulus package. However, a second wave of coronavirus cases and uncertainties over the outlook for the US presidential election are likely to affect copper prices.

 

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium strengthened 0.51% to end at $1,854.5/mt on Thursday, and is expected to fluctuate between $1,830-1,870/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2011 aluminium generated a V-shaped movement before closing 0.17% higher at 14,685 yuan/mt in overnight trading. It is likely to move between 14,500-14,900 yuan/mt today.

 

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc finished the Thursday session 0.99% higher at $2,445/mt. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses expanded 825 mt, or 0.38%, to 218,825 mt. US weekly jobless claims rose unexpectedly to the highest since August, and coronavirus cases continued to hike in European countries, which drove up risk-off sentiment. However, US President Donald Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion that the White House has offered in coronavirus stimulus to strike a deal, and this boosted zinc prices. LME zinc is likely to move between $2,400-2,450/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2011 zinc fell rapidly to a session low of 18,930 yuan/mt after the bell, before reversing all the losses to close 0.73% higher at 19,270 yuan/mt in overnight trading. China’s upbeat social financing data and consumer price index (CPI) boosted market sentiment. The November contract is expected to trade between 18,900-19,400 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen lower at 150-180 yuan/mt.

 

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel slid 0.77% to end at $15,400/mt on Thursday.

The most-active SHFE 2012 nickel contract climbed 0.87% to settle at 118,920 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is likely to fluctuate around 119,000 yuan/mt today.

 

Lead: Three-month LME lead fell for the third straight day on Thursday, falling 0.22% to settle at $1,783.5/mt in choppy trading.

The most-traded SHFE 2011 lead contract slid 0.38% to close at 14,430 yuan/mt in overnight trading.

 

Tin: Three-month LME tin weakened 0.3% to end at $18,375/mt on Thursday, after hitting a more than one-month high at $18,400/mt earlier in the session. It is expected to move between $18,200-18,500/mt today.  

The most-liquid SHFE 2012 tin contract fluctuated above the five-day moving average in overnight trading, closing 0.1% weaker at 146,280 yuan/mt. It is likely to remain at highs today, moving between 145,000-148,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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SMM Morning Comments (Oct 16): Shanghai base metals rose for the most part, the LME complex mostly fell - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)