[SMM Metal Breakfast] Lunickel soared 3.19%. September lithium data analysis * Iron ore supply is expected to remain loose.

[overnight quotation] the outer disk metal Pu Sheng Lun Nickel rose 3.19%, and the oil price rose by more than 2% to hit a new high this week.

[macro outlook] focus on China's annual CPI rate in September

[notice] 2020 China rare Earth permanent Magnet Industry Market Application and Development Forum was held today!

Today's focus

[SMM: individual manufacturers were forced to stop production for about a week due to shortage of scrap copper] scrap copper continued to be tense. According to SMMl, individual manufacturers in Jiangxi area were forced to stop production for a week from the end of the National Day holiday because it was difficult to buy scrap copper to meet production needs, and took the opportunity to carry out equipment maintenance. There is not much scrap copper rod product inventory in the factory area. "View details

[SMM: silicon traders are cautious in stocking] this year, many traders are particularly cautious about restocking mainly because of concerns about terminal demand, believing that it is difficult for silicon prices to rise sharply to cover the cost of capital during the dry season, so they have no plans to stock in large quantities. "View details

[SMM September lithium data analysis: power battery installation rose 66% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 17.5% of Prida] the increase in the installed capacity of iron lithium batteries in passenger cars in September was mainly due to a sharp increase in BYD "Han" production, superimposed by SAIC GM Wuling this month to increase the proportion of iron lithium installed in Ningde era, as well as a substantial increase in iron lithium installed by Chery Automobile, SAIC, Hezhong New Energy and other car companies. After Tesla's standard continued flight version Model 3 is fully switched to iron lithium in the future, it is expected that the installed capacity of iron lithium will be further increased, and the proportion of passenger cars will continue to increase. "View details

[sales of new energy vehicles in September increased by 67% downstream strongly boosted demand for nickel sulfate] as for nickel sulfate, according to a survey by SMM, the national output of nickel sulfate in September was 63100 physical tons, an increase of 4.26% month-on-month and 28.46% over the same period last year. The output of nickel sulfate increased slightly in September, mainly due to the tight supply of battery-grade nickel sulfate at the end of August. September and October were the regular peak season for downstream enterprises, and the demand for nickel sulfate increased. Therefore, this month, nickel salt plants arranged full production as far as possible under the condition that raw materials were met. However, due to the impact of the implementation of the new solid waste method on the import and storage of nickel sulfate raw materials in September, the increase in nickel sulfate output in September was relatively small. It is understood that the demand for nickel sulfate downstream increases greatly in September, which is basically the same in October and September, but the raw materials of each nickel salt plant have been fully prepared and the output will increase to a certain extent. "View details

[SMM data: stainless steel production increased by 1.35% month-on-month in September is expected to hit a new high in October] according to SMM research, national stainless steel production in September totaled about 2.772 million tons, an increase of 17200 tons over August, an increase of about 0.62% month-on-month and an increase of 11.29% over the same period last year. From January to September 2020, the country's cumulative output of stainless steel was about 21.163 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 0.08 percent over the same period last year, which is basically the same as the cumulative output of last year. "View details

[SMM Express Review: Mexico's anti-dumping stainless steel export performance of cold-rolled stainless steel plates to China is not optimistic for the time being] according to SMM, due to the impact of the epidemic situation in various countries and the recovery boosted by the economy, the export performance of China's stainless steel cold-rolled plates is not optimistic for the time being, including some countries in Southeast Asia that have successively issued anti-dumping arbitration against Chinese stainless steel. at present, the domestic mainstream stainless steel spot transaction prices are not basically running at a high level. Domestic terminal market demand is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter, but the release of overseas demand is on the low side, and steel prices lack strong support for temporary stable operation in the short term. "View details

[SMM analysis: another Australian miner and domestic steel companies sign supply agreement iron ore supply is expected to remain loose] on the supply side, SMM tracking data show that a total of 95 ships arrived at China's main ports from 10.4 to 10.10, with an estimated arrival volume of 14.67 million tons, a decrease of 340000 tons compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.99 million tons over the same period last year. The number of port arrivals in Shandong and Tianjin increased month-on-month, while the number of port arrivals in Tangshan decreased, mainly due to production restrictions in Tangshan area and port closure leading to a decrease in ship arrival. Shipments fell slightly last week, with strong fluctuations in the main Brazilian shipments. In addition, if Vale is to achieve its annual production target of 3.1-330 million tons in 2020, according to the current data, it will still need to increase shipments. With the passage of time, the relationship between supply and demand of iron ore tends to be relaxed, the fundamentals are also lack of strong upward power, and the pressure on ore prices increases. "View details

[SMM thread: profits have plummeted down the steel mill schedule for 4 consecutive months! According to a survey by SMM, the thread production of blast furnace steel mills mainly producing building materials in October was 8.2922 million tons, down 1.37 percent from September, while that of reels was 2.685 million tons, down 0.28 percent from the previous month. Click to view a detailed analysis. "View details

[SMM thread: Hangzhou thread inventory decreased by 17.47% month-to-month! After the release of sentiment, short-term prices may be under pressure] in the near future, when terminal demand picks up significantly and supply is stable, inventories are expected to continue to disappear. However, it is undeniable that the current thread production and inventory absolute volume is still much higher than last year, market prices experienced a post-holiday emotional rebound, the price upward force has significantly weakened in the past two days, after the release of sentiment, there may be some pressure in the short term. "View details

China stops importing Australian coal! Looking at the analysis of the influence of coke and steel prices] SMM believes that China imported 152 million tons of coal from January to August 2020, of which 70.441 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 46.4 percent. This time, China's suspension of Australian coal imports is bound to expand the coal supply gap and stimulate the rise in domestic coal prices. after the news landed, the price of double coke once rose sharply, and the main contract for coke even refreshed a 14-month high, supporting steel prices. However, considering that the short-term sharp rally has fully reflected the positive, there may be a need for a correction in short-term prices. "View details

[October 9-14: Guangzhou building materials social inventory declined again-2.31% thread inventory-2.9%] in the later stage, the supply side does not show a concentrated increase in the southward movement of northern materials, and the production of local steel mills tends to be stable, and the supply side has performed steadily in the near future. On the demand side, although the rigid demand has been released recently and the merchants' shipments are in good condition, on the 12th, the Guangdong Provincial Housing and Construction Department issued the "Emergency notice on profoundly drawing lessons from the" 10 ·8 "larger accident of the Shanwei Luhe River to carry out special investigation and rectification of the hidden dangers of formwork collapse. Although the impact of the current construction site is limited, it is possible for later events to continue to" ferment ", and the current market sentiment has been suppressed to a certain extent. "View details

[notice] "lead" calls for "storage" to set sail, the renewable lead battery summit will be held today!

Important news of metals and industry

[Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region people's Government: opinions on further strengthening the Development and Protection of Mineral Resources and promoting the High-quality Development of our region] recently, the people's Government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region issued the opinions on further strengthening the Development and Protection of Mineral Resources and promoting the High-quality Development of the region, in order to further strengthen the development and protection of mineral resources and improve the level of orderly development and comprehensive utilization of mineral resources. Strive to promote the modernization of mining governance capacity and promote the high-quality development of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. "View details

[accelerated development of the Camoa-Kakoula copper mine under Zijin Mining] in September, the epidemic control of novel coronavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was partially lifted, the staff of the Kamoa-Kakoula copper mine under Zijin Mining was further enriched, and the development of the Kakoula underground mine was promoted rapidly. a total of 2069 meters have been dug, a new monthly record, and the project has completed a total of 22.6km of underground development projects.

[Lunding Mining will meet with Chilean Candelaria copper miners to end the strike] the head of the union at the Candelaria copper mine in Chile, owned by Canada's Lunding Mining (Lundin Mining), said on Tuesday that the company will meet with the union on Wednesday and hope to restart negotiations to end the strike that began last week. "View details

[Australian gold miner OceanaGold may launch a second round of layoffs at the Philippine copper and gold mine in mid-November] Australia's OceanaGold announced on Tuesday that it had laid off 496 employees at Didipio Copper and Gold Mine in the Philippines, and about 400 contract workers would also be affected. "View details

[Jiaozuo Wanfang's estimated profit in the first three quarters is 340 million yuan to 390 million yuan] A few days ago, Jiaozuo Wanfang issued a forecast of results for the first three quarters of 2020. The net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters was 340 million yuan to 390 million yuan, an increase of 1157% over the same period last year. 1342%.

[Somick Automotive Aluminum Alloy chassis Core components Project trial production] A few days ago, Somick Automotive parts Co., Ltd. automobile lightweight aluminum alloy chassis core components industrialization project has completed equipment commissioning, aluminum alloy parts CNC production line started trial production. The project is one of the key industrial projects in Keqiao District, Shaoxing City, with a total investment of 500 million yuan. After completion, it will form an annual production capacity of 300000 sets of aluminum alloy chassis core components of new energy vehicles and related auto parts.

[Cornwall Lithium crowdfunding more than 4 million pounds to help develop green energy in the UK] British Cornwall lithium company (Cornish Lithium) has raised nearly 4 million pounds ($5 million) through crowdfunding campaigns to advance work in the Cornwall ancient mining area. "View details

[southern rare earths announce the latest listing prices of medium and heavy rare earth oxides gadolinium oxide and holmium] A few days ago, southern rare earths announced the latest listing prices of medium and heavy rare earth oxides. The prices of most products are the same as the previous quotations, while the quotations of individual products have been lowered. In terms of price changes, gadolinium oxide is quoted at 170000 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton from the previous period, and holmium oxide is quoted at 410000 yuan / ton, down 10, 000 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. "View details

[chairman of BHP Billiton said it had received extension requests from Chinese coal customers] Ken MacKenzie, chairman of Australian mining giant BHP Billiton, said on Wednesday that the company had received extension requests from Chinese coal customers. "We understand that there may be some new developments in China in adjusting and balancing imported coal and domestic coal production. [

[Valin Steel expects to have room for further layoffs in the future] Valin Steel revealed in the newly released "record sheet of Investor Relations activities" that the number of employees in the main steel industry at the end of 2019 was about 30% less than that at the end of 2015. The next step will further promote intelligent, automatic and unmanned technological transformation work, and it is expected that there is room for further staff reduction in the future.

[the national standard of "recycled iron and steel raw materials" is expected to be released at the end of the year] it was learned at the launching meeting of the national standard of "recycled iron and steel raw materials" that, as the basis for the formulation of the national standard of "recycled steel raw materials", the group standard of the China Iron and Steel Association has now passed the review, indicating that substantial progress has been made in supporting technical standards to promote the import and use of recycled iron and steel raw materials. "View details

[U.S. hot coil exports increased by 26.3% month-on-month to 46.35 million tons in August.] according to export data released by the US Department of Commerce, US hot rolled coil steel exports in August 2020 were 46.35 million tons, up 26.3% from July and 13.7% lower than the same period last year. In terms of value, hot volume exports were $32.5 million in August, $26.4 million in July and $41.7 million in the same period last year. Of these, the largest export destination was Mexico, with an export volume of 28915 tons, compared with 21321 tons in July and 33541 tons in the same period last year. The other major export destinations were Canada, with exports of 10906 tons, while exports to the remaining destinations did not exceed 1000 tons in August.

Macro focus

[the central bank's October open market operation temporary window experts expect this month's MLF to continue] this week (October 12 to October 16) the central bank has 410 billion yuan of full-caliber maturing funds. In the case of large-scale maturity of reverse repo funds, the central bank is "standing still". In response, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that the central bank suspended reverse repurchase for four consecutive working days in order to guide the market interest rate to operate smoothly around the policy rate and send a signal to maintain reasonable and adequate market liquidity. In order to stabilize the medium-and long-term liquidity level of the banking system, under the prospect that it is difficult to land on the floor in the short term, the central bank has a high probability of over-subscription as MLF this month.

[central bank: the macro leverage ratio should be allowed to rise in stages] Ruan Jianhong, director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, said at a press conference on the 14th that the growth rate of China's credit and social finance grew reasonably in the first three quarters of this year, but not yet fast. Affected by the epidemic this year, the macro leverage ratio will rise periodically. We are currently facing special circumstances, and the enhancement of macro leverage ratio to adapt to macro policies is a manifestation of supporting epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of the national economy. Macro leverage ratio should be allowed to rise periodically and credit support to the real economy should be expanded. It should be said that this policy has now achieved remarkable results, which is prominently reflected in the steady growth of the national economy. China's GDP growth has achieved positive growth in the second quarter, and we expect GDP growth to further increase in the third quarter, which also creates conditions for better maintaining a reasonable macro leverage ratio in the future.

Fed Kaplan: the unemployment rate may not fall below 4% again until 2023.

The economy is expected to contract by about 2.5 per cent in 2020 and grow by about 3.5 per cent in 2021.

[nearly 7.9 million cases of COVID-19 in the United States] according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 17:00 eastern time on 14 October, the cumulative number of confirmed cases by COVID-19 in the United States had reached 7895758, with a total of 216469 deaths. In the past 24 hours, there have been 59078 new confirmed cases and 920 new deaths in the United States.

Terminal information

[Tesla reduces the price of Model S again] Tesla recently reduced the price of Model S by $3000 to $71990. Today, electric car company Lucid Motors announced the price and specification of its basic Lucid Air in an attempt to compete with Tesla Model S by lowering the price. Musk seems to have noticed the move, announcing today that Tesla will further reduce the price of Model S to $69420. This will be the third time that Tesla has lowered the price of Model S this year.

[Honda calls on the British government to support hybrid vehicles rather than pure electric vehicles] Honda called on the British government not only to focus on electric vehicles, but to re-examine the importance of hybrid vehicles. The company believes that pure electric cars are not a panacea and should not completely replace fuel-powered engines by 2035.

[Ningde Times and Shanghai Jiaotong University signed an agreement to jointly build a joint research center] on October 12, Ningde Times and Shanghai Jiaotong University signed a cooperation agreement on the Minhang campus of Shanghai Jiaotong University, and the two sides will jointly build a joint research center for clean energy technology. According to the agreement, the two sides will jointly build a joint research center on clean energy technology, deploy in conjunction with major national strategic tasks, target international cutting-edge technology development, gather high-end innovation resources, and establish a cooperation platform for "research and innovation" and "personnel training". On this basis, it will become an important carrier for the transformation of key common technological achievements in clean energy science and technology and a highland of industry-university-research joint innovation. "View details

[NAWA launches ultrafast carbon-based electrodes to triple battery capacity] French company NAWA Technologies launched a new type of carbon nanotube electrodes. It is said that the ultra-fast electrode can increase the power of the battery by 10 times, increase the energy storage capacity by 3 times, prolong the life of the battery by 5 times, and shorten the charging time from a few hours to a few minutes.