[SMM Analysis] another Australian miner signs a supply agreement with domestic steel companies and iron ore supply is expected to remain loose

Published: Oct 14, 2020 16:02

SMM10 March 14: it is reported that iron ore exploration company Phoenix Resources Co., Ltd. (Fenix Resources Ltd,.) It said on Wednesday that it had signed an agreement with a Chinese steelmaker to sell half of its Iron Ridge project in Western Australia. The agreement ensures that the Perth-based company has sales arrangements for all production from the Iron Ridge project, with the other half being sold to Atlas ron, a subsidiary of Hancock Minerals company (Hancock Prospecting). Production of the, Iron Ridge project will begin later this year and the first shipment will be shipped in early 2021, the company said.

Since the end of September, iron ore futures have experienced greater ups and downs, the main contract rose from 750 short-term to 830, came back again after the festival, closed at 798.5 today, and returned to the 800 mark again. In addition to the impact of production restrictions, the expected rebound in supply for the rest of the year is also the main driving force for short-sellers to attack. Iron ore imports rose in September as supplies from major countries such as Brazil and Australia are expected to grow further in the coming months due to increased supply from major mining countries and easing port congestion.

On the supply side, SMM tracking data show that a total of 95 ships arrived at China's major ports from October 4th to October 10th, with an estimated arrival volume of 14.67 million tons, a decrease of 340000 tons compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.99 million tons over the same period last year; port arrivals in Shandong and Tianjin increased month-on-month, while port arrivals in Tangshan decreased, mainly due to production restrictions in Tangshan area and port closure leading to a decrease in ship arrival. Shipments fell slightly last week, with strong fluctuations in the main Brazilian shipments. At a later stage, if Vale is to meet its annual production target of 3.1-330 million tons in 2020, according to the current data, it will still need to increase shipments. With the passage of time, the relationship between supply and demand of iron ore tends to be relaxed, the fundamentals are also lack of strong upward power, and the pressure on ore prices increases.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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