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SMM Morning Comments (Oct 13): Shanghai base metals were mostly higher as investors await China’s trade data for September
Oct 13,2020 10:24CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
Shanghai base metals, except for tin and zinc, cruised higher on Tuesday morning as investors look to Chinese trade figures for September set to release today. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the LME fell across the board as optimism over the possibility of a COVID-19 relief bill was curbed by concern over the pandemic.

SHANGHAI, Oct 13 (SMM) — Shanghai base metals, except for tin and zinc, cruised higher on Tuesday morning as investors look to Chinese trade figures for September set to release today. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the LME fell across the board as optimism over the possibility of a COVID-19 relief bill was curbed by concern over the pandemic.

 

Shanghai base metals mostly advanced in overnight trading. Copper added 0.45%, aluminium rose 0.97%, lead advanced 0.68% and nickel strengthened 0.62%, while zinc fell 0.86% and tin edged down 0.02%.

The LME complex rose for the most part on Monday. Aluminium added 0.49%, zinc rose 1.09%, lead climbed 1.1%, nickel advanced 0.16% and tin increased 0.14%, while copper underperformed with a 0.5% loss.

 

Copper: Three-month LME copper fell 0.5% to close at $6,738/mt on Monday, and is likely to fluctuate between $6,680-6,750/mt today.  

The most-traded SHFE 2011 copper contract rose 0.45% to end at 51,550 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is expected to trade between 50,900-51,500 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen higher at 110-190 yuan/mt.

Talks on a US economic stimulus bill remained in a stalemate, even as the Trump administration called on Congress to pass a stripped-down coronavirus relief bill using leftover funds from an expired small-business loan program. Overnight, the US dollar index steadied at around 93, gold prices fell from a three-week peak, and oil prices slid about 3%. In the spot market, offers turned firm as most of the market participants returned to trade.

 

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium rose 0.49% to end at $1,856/mt on Monday, and is likely to move between $1,830-1,870/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2011 aluminium contract strengthened 0.97% to close at 14,630 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is expected to trade between 14,300-14,700 yuan/mt today. 

 

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc bounced off an intraday low of $2,403.5/mt to climb to its highest in nearly three weeks at $2,469/mt before giving up some gains to end 1.09% higher at $2,453.5/mt on Monday. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses shrank 225 mt, or 0.1%, to 217,400 mt. Weak US dollar and optimism over a US economic stimulus bill boosted zinc prices. LME zinc is expected to move between $2,400-2,450/mt today.  

The most-traded SHFE 2011 zinc contract weakened 0.86% to end at 19,420 yuan/mt in overnight trading, after hitting its highest in more than three weeks at 19,550 yuan/mt earlier in the session. A second wave of Covid-19 in Shandong Qingdao weighed on market sentiment, but treatment charges for zinc concentrate declined as domestic mines are expected to trim production in winter, which will be supportive to zinc prices. The November contract is likely to trade between 19,200-19,700 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 160-180 yuan/mt against the October contract.

 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE 2012 nickel contract closed 0.62% firmer at 117,200 yuan/mt in overnight trading, with open interest decreasing 670 lots to 110,000 lots.

 

Lead: Three-month LME lead rose 1.1% to close at $1,839/mt on Monday, after hitting its highest in nearly two weeks at $1,851/mt earlier in the session.

The most-active SHFE 2011 lead contract settled 0.68% higher at 14,855 yuan/mt in overnight trading.

 

Tin: Three-month LME tin ended 0.14% higher at $18,260/mt on Monday, after hitting its highest in more than one month at $18,365/mt earlier in the session. Support below will be seen at $18,000/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2012 tin contract edged down 0.02% to close at 146,850 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is expected to move between 145,000-148,000 yuan/mt today.

Market commentary
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Tin
Nickel
Zinc

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