The cost of lithium-ion batteries may fall to $73 in 2030

SMM: lithium-ion batteries can be used to power electric vehicles or provide scheduling flexibility in Electroweb. According to foreign media reports, the latest analysis of research institutions shows that with the emergence of more and more renewable energy, such as solar and wind energy, the average cost of lithium-ion batteries will fall below $100 per kilowatt-hour in the next three years; it is expected that the average cost of lithium-ion batteries will further decline in the future, to 73 $/ kWh by 2030.

The average cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 82 per cent between 2012 and 2020. In electric transport and Electroweb energy storage, to improve battery competitiveness and promote its widespread use, the key is to further reduce costs. According to the research institute, the cost of batteries will fall by 86 per cent (10-year cycle) by 2023, a total reduction in 580$/kWh.

Promoting economies of scale helps to cut costs

The research institute predicts that in the next decade, achieving economies of scale by expanding capacity will be the most important factor in reducing battery costs. In addition, the improvement of production efficiency, the use of lower-cost cathode materials, and the increase of energy density are also expected to play a certain role.

The three mainstream lithium-ion batteries are Ni-mn-Co (NMC), Ni-Co-Al (NCA) and iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. This year, LFP batteries have fallen below the threshold of $100 per kilowatt-hour. All three batteries are expected to cost less than $100 by 2024. LFP will maintain the lowest cost over the next decade; however, NMC and NCA batteries will continue to dominate the automotive and transportation sectors because of their higher energy density.