SMM: the "final" GDP report released by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday (30th) showed that GDP in the United States shrank at an annualised rate of 31.4% in the second quarter, the biggest decline since records began. Among the subdivided indicators that led to its economic downturn, catering, entertainment and hotels performed worst.
The decline is understood to be the biggest decline since records began in 1947 and more than three times the previous record: during the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower (Dwight Eisenhower), US GDP fell by 10 per cent in the first quarter of 1958.
Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic this year, US enterprises have closed down on a large scale, which has dragged down almost all industries, and the US economy has ended nearly 11 years of economic expansion. Judging from the breakdown of data in the second quarter, the catering, hotel and entertainment industries performed worst. The annualized decline in these services reached 91.5%, dragging down GDP by 6.6%.
The report also shows that the impact of private service providers on US GDP in the second quarter was-23.5%, while that of commodity manufacturers was-5.9%. Only the federal government, the financial industry and the insurance industry have a positive impact on GDP.
Nevertheless, the market generally expects GDP data to rebound sharply in the third quarter with the resumption of US business activity and the recovery of jobs. Economists predict that US GDP will grow at an annualised rate of 30 per cent in the third quarter. That would break the record of 16.7 per cent GDP growth in the first quarter of 1950, when Harry Truman (Harry Truman) was president.
Moreover, while incumbent US President Donald Trump is counting on an economic rebound to persuade voters to re-elect him, economists generally believe that the future of the US economy is far from certain and that any rebound this year is just an "attempt".
They predict that US GDP growth will slow sharply to about 4 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, and if Congress fails to pass a new stimulus package, or if economic activity is severely curbed as a result of an increase in the number of COVID-19 infections, then the US economy may actually fall back into recession.
