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[SMM comment] Metal general drop Shanghai lead drop more than 2% Shanghai tin drop more than 1% precious metal fell to suspend the previous period of crude oil floating red
Sep 25,2020 09:45CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM9 March 25: the overnight dollar index fell slightly, and the metal market is still weak, but the decline of most metals is significantly narrower than that of the previous period. Today, the LME metal market rose and fell mutually in early trading. By about 09:30 in the morning, Lunni was up nearly 0.6%, Lunxi was up nearly 0.5%, Lun Copper was up nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum was down slightly, Lun Zinc was down nearly 0.2%, and Lun lead was down nearly 0.4%. Most of the domestic metal market is green, with Shanghai lead down 2.3%, Shanghai Tin down nearly 1.7%, Shanghai Zinc and Shanghai Aluminum down nearly 0.8%, Shanghai Copper down nearly 0.1%, and Shanghai Nickel up nearly 0.5%.

In terms of copper, fundamentals, LME inventory continues to be removed, copper inventory remains at a historically low level, demand-side support for copper prices is still there, and it is expected that the room for copper price reduction is limited and will remain above the 50000 mark in the short term. It is expected to be 6520-6600 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 50300-50900 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] LME inventories remain historically low. Demand-side support for copper prices is still there.

In terms of lead, overnight LME metal fell, Lun lead closed four consecutive negative, guard against the adverse impact of overseas market turmoil on lead prices. Overnight, Shanghai lead opened low and went low, the trend closely followed Lun lead, and the short-term lead price volatility is expected to weaken. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 150-200 yuan per ton today.

[SMM lead Internal Morning meeting record] the weakening of Shanghai lead pays attention to the change of primary regeneration discount.

In terms of zinc, in terms of Shanghai zinc, the US dollar fell slightly at the end of overnight trading, boosting the upward trend of Shanghai zinc. However, the overseas macro mood has not yet stabilized, and the pre-holiday stock situation has been divided on Wednesday. Enterprises in the lower reaches of Guangdong and Tianjin are willing to receive goods at current prices. Shanghai maintains rigid demand procurement and pays close attention to inventory changes in the short term.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc pre-festival reserve situation differentiation and short-term attention to inventory changes

For the black system, the thread was flat, the hot coil rose nearly 0.4%, stainless steel rose nearly 1.6%, coke fell nearly 0.3%, coking coal fell nearly 0.6%, iron ore fell nearly 0.3%, iron ore fluctuated in a narrow range yesterday, and the port spot market was basically stable in early trading. Some steel enterprises purchase on demand, and traders actively ship goods, opening up the bargaining space in the market. According to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate of domestic steel mills rose 0.2% to 88.5% month-on-month last week, mainly due to the resumption of production at the end of overhaul in some steel mills, but considering that some steel enterprises are under pressure from lumber profits, or the expectation of active overhaul is still in place, it is difficult to increase blast furnace operating rate significantly. In addition, recently, some steel enterprises in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu and Sichuan have reached a consensus on deep joint production reduction, and decided to reduce the supply pressure of the building materials market by stopping blast furnaces and other measures. it is understood that the average daily impact of hot metal is about 32000 tons per day, and the impact of demand-side hollow iron ore needs continuous attention.

[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] Jin Jiu is expected to fail and accumulate pressure to suppress the price rebound.

Crude oil rose nearly 0.6% in the previous period, and crude oil futures closed higher on Thursday, supported by signs of tight crude supply in the United States, although a new wave of outbreaks in Europe led to the resumption of travel restrictions in several countries, which could lead to weaker energy demand. Analysts point out that moribund crude oil prices and dire refining profits have led to a faltering recovery in demand, especially as the epidemic rebounds again. But fortunately, OPEC supply constraints and further declines in US supply in the fourth quarter and 2021 will offset this impact.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.5%. Comex futures rose on Thursday as the dollar fell slightly and Fed officials reiterated that they would maintain loose monetary policy. in addition, the recent fall in gold prices to a two-month low has also boosted demand for low-suction buying. Gold is still down more than 4% this week, and the strength of the dollar has a major impact on gold's decline.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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