Macro Roundup (Sep 25)

Published: Sep 25, 2020 08:46
The US dollar traded at a two-month high and was set for a fifth day of gains on Thursday as investors sought safety on concerns over economic recovery as coronavirus cases surged in Europe and on US data showed rising unemployment claims.

SHANGHAI, Sep 25 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

 

The US dollar traded at a two-month high and was set for a fifth day of gains on Thursday as investors sought safety on concerns over economic recovery as coronavirus cases surged in Europe and on US data showed rising unemployment claims.

Federal Reserve policymakers have called on the US government to provide more fiscal support, fuelling a bout of selling in risky assets overnight, while European economic data has worsened in recent days prompting investors to lighten their positions after a rally in August.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 870,000 for the week ended Sept. 19, compared to 866,000 in the prior week and economist expectations for 840,000 applications.

 

Overnight on Wall Street, stocks eked out small gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52.31 points higher, or 0.2%, at 26,815.44. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to finish its trading day at 3,246.59 while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.4% to close at 10,672.27. The moves stateside came in a wild session that saw the Dow down more than 200 points at its session low and up more than 300 points at one point.

 

Gold fell to its lowest in over two months on Thursday as the safe-haven dollar continued its advance on fears around the economic recovery, while fading hopes for more fiscal stimulus also weighed on the yellow metal.

“One of the factors that is pushing gold and stocks downwards is the broad assumption in the financial markets that the US Congress will not provide any further economic stimulus for at least the next several months,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.

 

Oil prices steadied on Thursday, as the bullish impact of a fall in US inventories was offset by a stronger dollar and a renewed wave of coronavirus cases in Europe that led several countries to reimpose travel restrictions.

The jitters over demand and the economic outlook due to the coronavirus resurgence have spurred a rally in the dollar as investors turned to safer assets, adding pressure on oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil less attractive to buyers using other currencies.

Prices were also capped by data showing a cooling of US business activity in September, the stalemate in the US Congress over more fiscal stimulus and US Federal Reserve officials flagging concerns about a stalling recovery.

In Europe, Britain, Germany and France imposed new restrictions to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus - all factors affecting fuel demand.

On the supply side, the market remains wary of a resumption of exports from Libya, although it is unclear how quickly it can ramp up volumes.

 

Coronavirus developments continue to weigh on sentiment as cases surge in Europe. The number of daily reported coronavirus cases in the UK has jumped by a quarter in the past day. The UK reported 6,178 cases, up by 1,252 since Tuesday, as the country grapples with a surge this month. Meanwhile, two German government ministers, Heiko Maas and Peter Altmaier, are now in quarantine after close contacts received positive coronavirus tests.

 

UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak on Thursday announced a new emergency package of measures to contain unemployment, replacing the country’s furlough scheme which is due to expire next month.

 

Investors will monitor Chinese assets after FTSE Russell announced Thursday that Chinese government bonds are scheduled to be included in the FTSE World Government Bond Index starting October 2021.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
An Introduction to the Great Dyke: Geology, Resources and Outlook
9 hours ago
An Introduction to the Great Dyke: Geology, Resources and Outlook
Read More
An Introduction to the Great Dyke: Geology, Resources and Outlook
An Introduction to the Great Dyke: Geology, Resources and Outlook
Within Zimbabwe lies one of the world’s great PGM provinces. The 2.58-billion-year-old 'Great Dyke' which stretches more than 550 km across the country, hosting major platinum, palladium, rhodium and chrome resources. From the geology of the Main Sulphide Zone to Zimplats, Mimosa, Unki and the emerging Karo project, this article explores why the Great Dyke matters to Zimbabwe and what its development could mean for the future of global PGM supply.
9 hours ago
Silver Prices Swing Wildly with Center Moving Upward; Spot Silver Shifts from Discount to Premium [SMM Silver Weekly Review]
15 hours ago
Silver Prices Swing Wildly with Center Moving Upward; Spot Silver Shifts from Discount to Premium [SMM Silver Weekly Review]
Read More
Silver Prices Swing Wildly with Center Moving Upward; Spot Silver Shifts from Discount to Premium [SMM Silver Weekly Review]
Silver Prices Swing Wildly with Center Moving Upward; Spot Silver Shifts from Discount to Premium [SMM Silver Weekly Review]
[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver Prices Swing Wildly with Center Moving Up; Spot Shifts from Discount to Premium] This week, silver prices swung wildly with the center moving slightly higher. Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls initially pressured silver prices, but the subsequent continuous weakening of the US dollar drove a rebound, and spot quotes shifted from discounts to premiums. Macro factors were mixed, and the market awaited guidance from CPI and the US Fed meeting, with wild swings expected in the short term. Inventory saw a slight buildup of 6 mt, ETF holdings edged up, and wait-and-see sentiment strengthened.
15 hours ago
WPIC Revises 2026 Platinum Market to 265,000 oz Surplus as Investment Demand Weakens
16 hours ago
WPIC Revises 2026 Platinum Market to 265,000 oz Surplus as Investment Demand Weakens
Read More
WPIC Revises 2026 Platinum Market to 265,000 oz Surplus as Investment Demand Weakens
WPIC Revises 2026 Platinum Market to 265,000 oz Surplus as Investment Demand Weakens
[SMM Flash] The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has revised its 2026 platinum market balance to a 265,000 oz surplus, reversing its previous forecast for a 297,000 oz deficit. The latest Platinum Quarterly, published on September 9, showed a second-quarter surplus of 244,000 oz as total supply increased 1% year on year to 1.91 million oz while demand fell 16% to 1.66 million oz. The revision largely reflects investment outflows during the first half of 2026 rather than a significant recovery in mine supply. Despite the full-year surplus forecast, WPIC says above-ground inventories remain constrained following three consecutive years of substantial deficits. The organisation expects the market to swing from a 548,000 oz surplus in H1 to a 283,000 oz deficit in H2, as investment selling moderates. The H2 balance remains a forecast rather than a confirmed outcome.
16 hours ago
Macro Roundup (Sep 25) - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)