Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / [SMM Metal Breakfast] Metal is down by more than 1% in Shanghai, lead and tin. * scrap copper in the National Day stock of waste enterprises is tight. Aluminum supply is not obvious in the long-term short-term consumption.
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Metal is down by more than 1% in Shanghai, lead and tin. * scrap copper in the National Day stock of waste enterprises is tight. Aluminum supply is not obvious in the long-term short-term consumption.
Sep 25,2020 07:30CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] LME continues to maintain Back structure mountain copper premium all the way down * National Day holiday profit scrap enterprise stock short-term scrap copper may be more tight * aluminum supply long-term short-term consumption peak season aluminum price is not obvious but still or repeatedly * August China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum imports increased by more than 7 times year-on-year? Mainly due to these three points * cost line support + spot strong stainless steel rising up * Thailand initiated a case investigation on safeguard measures for imported aluminum foil * TMM and BPST jointly built a nickel smelter to absorb more low-grade laterite nickel ore
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[overnight quotation] the metal market is green, Shanghai lead, Shanghai tin is down more than 1%, and the COMEX gold futures closed up slightly.

"[macro outlook] focus on the data of durable goods orders in the United States in August.

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: LME continues to maintain the Back structure of the mountain copper premium all the way down] LME inventory recently showed a bottom stabilized and a slight rebound momentum. Total LME inventories recorded a relatively low of 77000 tons as of Sept. 23, up slightly from 73000 tonnes on Sept. 9. At present, the domestic demand for US dollar copper is very low, and the Yangshan copper premium has fallen to the lowest level of the year, and the "delivery position" in the market is expected to heat up. Some traders said that if the premium continues to decline, some of the electrolytic copper originally sent to China may be transferred directly to the LME warehouse, so it is slightly difficult for LME 0-3 to re-rush the strong back structure. "View details

[SMM survey: Guangdong copper industry chain National Day holiday arrangements in 2020 first look] during the long Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2020, Guangdong copper terminal enterprises have a big difference in holiday time; enamelled wire and copper plate, strip and foil industries with a shorter holiday duration, which are only about 2 days; followed by the copper pipe industry, with a general holiday of about 3 days; copper rod and wire and cable industries with a holiday of about 4 days; and copper pole enterprises with a longer holiday period of 4-5 days. The weakest is the scrap copper industry, which has been basically cleared for the festival, with a holiday of about 6 days. On the whole, the holiday time of terminal enterprises this year is generally slightly longer than in previous years, but the replenishment volume is less than that of the same period last year. Moreover, it is reported that the stock volume of terminal enterprises on Thursday and Friday (24th and 25th) has increased by nearly 1/3 compared with Monday. Most enterprises will complete the pre-holiday replenishment next Monday. "View details

[SMM analysis: scrap copper from enterprises during the National Day holiday may be more tense in the short term.] due to the interference of China's gradual control of solid waste imports and the overseas epidemic situation, the import volume of scrap copper has shrunk sharply this year. According to customs data, copper scrap imports in the first seven months of this year were only 505700 tons, compared with 991700 tons in the same period last year, a cumulative sharp decline of 49 per cent compared with the same period last year. Domestic scrap copper supply depends on a large proportion of imports, this year's shrinking imports, coupled with the rapid consumption of scrap copper by waste enterprises, it can be predicted that scrap copper will generally show a continuing shortage. According to SMM, since August, it has become more and more difficult for waste enterprises to purchase high-quality copper scrap, and the shortage of raw materials has become more obvious by the end of August. "View details

[SMM analysis: aluminum supply long-term short consumption season is not obvious aluminum prices are weak but still repeated] at present, in addition to the macro European epidemic fermentation, a sharp rebound in the dollar index to suppress aluminum prices, and fundamental consumption delays, new capacity has been identified as negative factors, there are no other major negative factors for the time being. After the release of sentiment, aluminum prices are not expected to fall smoothly under the current current structure and inventory conditions, and there are still repeated possibilities in the future. At present, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum narrowed to the lower edge of the new box range after a short-term sharp decline, and continued to pay attention to the changes of capital flow and the impact of macro news trends on the market in the later stage. "View details

[SMM analysis: China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by more than 7 times in August compared with the same period last year? According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Wednesday, China imported 429464 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in August, up 723.6 percent from a year earlier and 9.8 percent from July. China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminium products in August were the highest monthly level since April 2009. China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 395424 tons in August. From January to August this year, China imported 1637294 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, an increase of 346.9 percent over the same period last year. "View details

[SMM analysis: be dragged down! In the long run, the United States has its own demand for economic development, and the continued rise of the US dollar deviates from its willingness for economic recovery, so it is difficult to maintain a high level. From the recent decline compared with other varieties, tin its fundamentals have a certain support, it is more difficult to appear a bigger decline. Today, the reduction of positions in the main contract is obvious, if the tin price falls below 140000 yuan / ton, it will touch the psychological Jiancang price of some long traders. And the daily moving average is intertwined, the upper pressure level is concentrated, if there is a chance to break through, there is still a chance to rise. However, the recent suppression of the dollar, tin prices are expected to be in a weak situation in the short term, bulls need to be cautious to enter, continue to pay attention to the dollar and the macroeconomic environment, waiting for the opportunity. "View details

[SMM brief comment: cost line support + spot strong stainless steel pull up] stainless steel contract closed at Zhongyang column, temporarily ending the continuous downward trend, breaking through the 5 / 10-day moving average above and pulling up. Today, the trend of stainless steel futures contract is less linked to nickel futures. The upward revision of stainless steel, on the one hand, because 14000 yuan / ton is close to the stainless steel production cost line, and the spot price is strong, the spot price difference is large, and the downward space of futures contract is limited. On the other hand, near the holiday, some bears make profits and reduce their positions, and the departure of the bears leads to a rebound in prices. Follow-up attention needs to be paid to the game between the long and short sides, but as the holiday is approaching, it is expected that the follow-up price fluctuations will slow down. Pay attention to whether the stainless steel contract can stabilize the first line of 14200 yuan / ton in the later stage. "View details

[SMM Steel] according to SMM Steel: this week, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil is 4.0639 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 0.75% and + 25.71% compared with the same period last year. This week, the total hot rolling inventory continues to accumulate, the month-on-month growth rate has narrowed, the year-on-year growth rate is more obvious.

[SMM hot roll: it is a pipe dream to bid a tearful farewell to Jin Jiu] this week, the total inventory of hot-rolled sheet coil is 4.0639 million tons, which is + 0.75% compared with the same period last year, and + 25.71% compared with the same period last year. This week, the total hot rolling inventory continues to accumulate, the month-on-month growth rate has narrowed, the year-on-year growth rate is more obvious. "View details

[SMM Steel: the operating rate of blast furnace in the fourth week of September was 88.5%, up 0.2% from last week] according to SMM research, the operating rate of blast furnace in the fourth week of September was 88.5%, up 0.2% from last week, the first rise after four consecutive weeks of decline. The main reason is that some steel mills have been overhauled and resumed production this week.

[KuaiBao of SMM magnesium ingot spot] on September 24th, the mainstream price of 999 magnesium ingot factory in Fugu area was 12200-12300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of 95B magnesium ingot was 12700-12800 yuan / ton. Wenxi area mainstream transaction price 12500-12700 yuan / ton; 95B magnesium ingot mainstream transaction price 13000-13200 yuan / ton. The overall price of magnesium ingots remained stable this week compared with last weekend, mainly due to the continuous decline in the previous period and approaching the cost line, coupled with high market inventories, some companies have taken action to cut production to deplete inventories and there is a rising price sentiment, as a result, prices have stabilized. The market transaction atmosphere is general, there is no significant improvement.

Important news of metals and industry

[Castillo Copper found higher-taste copper up to 28.4%] recently, mining company Castillo Copper (CCZ) has confirmed the existence of a better-taste copper mine in its Big One deposit in Queensland, with results from cuttings samples collected from the excavated ore and the unexplored area of the entire deposit. Among the 24 gravel samples, the results showed that the copper content of some samples reached 33.2%, 32.1%, 26.6%, and the average value of 24 samples was 6.7%. "View details

Thailand initiated a case investigation on safeguard measures for imported aluminum foil on September 18, 2020, upon the application of domestic enterprises, Thailand launched a case investigation on imported aluminum foil (English: Aluminium Foil)). The products investigated are aluminum foil without backing (thickness ≤ 0.2mm). The Thai customs codes of the products involved are 7607.11.00.000 and 7607.19.00.090.

[Japanese buyers agree to set Q4 aluminum premium at US $88 / tonne] four sources directly involved in the pricing negotiations said on Thursday that Japanese aluminum buyers had agreed to pay $88 per tonne of aluminum shipped in the October-December quarter, up 11 per cent from the current quarter as demand began to recover from the novel coronavirus epidemic. The rise in the fourth quarter was higher than the $79 a tonne in the current quarter, the first rise in five quarters. But that is lower than the producer's initial offer of $95-98 a tonne. Japan, an importer of aluminium in Asia, has agreed to pay a quarterly rise above the spot price on the London Financial Exchange, becoming the price benchmark for the region.

[zinc-aluminum-magnesium products of Jiuquan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. help Huawei 5G base station construction] A few days ago, zinc-aluminum-magnesium products of Jiuquan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. have been applied in the construction of 5G base stations for the first time because of their excellent corrosion resistance. The zinc-aluminum-magnesium alloy coated steel plate of Jiuquan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has super corrosion resistance, which is 10-20 times higher than that of hot-dip galvanized steel plate, and this product has the function of notch self-repair. In the corrosion environment, the coating composition can be dipped into the cross section by itself to form a dense oxidation product protection layer to restrain the continued corrosion at the notch.

Recently, sources involved in the pricing negotiations said that Japanese aluminum buyers have agreed to pay $88 per tonne of aluminum shipped in the October-December quarter, up 11% from the current quarter. The rise in the fourth quarter was higher than the $79 a tonne in the current quarter, the first rise in five quarters. But that is lower than the producer's initial offer of $95-98 a tonne. The rising water rose as aluminum demand began to recover from the novel coronavirus epidemic. Japan, Asia's largest importer of aluminium, agreed to pay a quarterly premium to the spot price of LME, becoming the price benchmark for the region.

[Encounter plans to sell 75 per cent of Elliot to BHP] Encounter Resources said on Thursday that it had signed an option agreement with BHP (BHP Group) that would give BHP up to a 75 per cent stake in its Elliot Copper project upon completion of a joint verification scheme. "View details

[TMM and BPST jointly build nickel smelter to absorb more low-grade laterite nickel ore] recently, PT Trinitan Metals&Minerals Tbk (TMM) and PT Bangun Palu Central Sulawesi (BPST) signed a joint agreement to build a nickel smelter in (KEK), Palu Special District. The two sides agreed to build a nickel smelter on 200 hectares of land. It is reported that TMM is a company engaged in mineral refining technology, mining waste management and mining exploration. "View details

[Yangzhou Jinling Shipyard 7490 ton stainless steel chemical first ship started smoothly] on September 22nd, the 7490-ton stainless steel chemical bow ship built by China Merchants Jinling Dingheng Shipbuilding (Yangzhou Jinling) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Yangzhou Jinling) for the domestic shipowner Huizhou Huayi Rongsheng started smoothly. "View details

[Hegang and Danieli cooperate to build special steel enterprises with global competitiveness] on September 22, the signing ceremony of the investment cooperation project between Hegang Group and Danieli Group was held at the headquarters of Hegang Group. The two sides cooperated around the project in the Shigang New area of Hegang. Work together to build a special steel enterprise with global competitiveness. This is a vivid practice for both sides to firmly implement the high-level consensus between China and Italy and to create new advantages in international cooperation and competition with a high level of opening up to the outside world, and it is also a concrete measure for Hegang to firmly seize the opportunity of the country's policy of expanding reform and opening up and vigorously promoting the reform of mixed ownership to speed up the transformation and upgrading of the iron and steel industry.

[German crude steel production fell 13.2 per cent in August] German crude steel production fell 13.2 per cent to 2.83 million tons in August from a year earlier, according to WV Stah, the German iron and steel federation. Between January and August, German crude steel production fell 16.5 per cent from a year earlier to 22.71 million tons. Crude steel production in Germany is still on a downward trend, and there is no sign of stabilizing production.

[iron ore shipments in the Great Lakes decreased 40.3 per cent year on year in August.] according to a recent report released by the Great Lakes Transport Association (LCA), iron ore shipments in the Great Lakes region in August were 3.6 million tons, down 40.3 per cent from the same period last year. Shipments in August were also down 37.9% from the five-year average. Iron ore shipments totaled 24.3 million tonnes from January to August, down 25.9 per cent from the same period a year earlier. It is nearly 23.2% lower than the five-year average.

[Chengde Shengfeng Iron and Steel will be officially closed recently] on September 23, Chengde Shengfeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. issued an enterprise shutdown notice, shut down the furnace and purged on September 26, and all production process systems and posts were closed on September 30. From October 1, all registered workers and all staff members have terminated their labor relations with the enterprise. It is understood that Chengde Shengfeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003, is a private joint-stock enterprise, is a set of sintering, ironmaking, steelmaking, steel rolling as one, the enterprise has two 630m ³blast furnaces, two 50-ton converters, ironmaking capacity of 1.48 million tons, steelmaking capacity of 1.52 million tons. The enterprise has been replaced by Guangxi Shenglong Metallurgy and Guangdong Jinshenglan Metallurgical Technology Co., Ltd.

[Jiangsu Xugang Group ironmaking Plant demolition auction, involving ironmaking capacity of 1.3 million tons] in accordance with the "guiding opinions of the State Council on resolving the contradiction of serious overcapacity", "opinions of the State Council on eliminating excess capacity to achieve Development in Iron and Steel Industry" and "measures for implementing capacity replacement in Iron and Steel Industry", the ironmaking capacity replacement plan of Xugang Group was publicized from May 20 to May 27, 2019. Xugang Group will start the blast furnace demolition work in June 2020. according to SMM, the ironmaking plant demolition project of Xugang Group involves withdrawing 1.3 million tons of ironmaking capacity. The project adopts the online bidding mode, and the project bidding is currently under way.

[us crude steel production is 1.446 million tons, capacity utilization is 64.5 per cent] according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Association (AISI), as of the week of September 19, US crude steel production was 1.446 million tons and capacity utilization was 64.5 per cent. Crude steel production this week was down 0.9 per cent from 1.459 million tons the week before, while capacity utilisation was also down from 65.1 per cent the week before. In the same period last year, crude steel output was 1.801 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.4%.

[Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Science and Technology Innovation Board's application for listing is mainly high-voltage lithium cobalt] on September 23rd, according to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the application materials of Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Materials Co., Ltd., which is to be listed in Science and Technology Innovation Board by Xiamen Tungsten Industry, were inquired. Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, formerly known as the Battery Materials Division of Xiamen Tungsten Industry, has successively set up production lines of lithium cobalt, lithium manganate, ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate since 2004, and established a new company to operate independently in December 2016. it has become a company specializing in the research, development, production and sales of cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries. At present, Xiamen tungsten new energy products involve lithium cobalt, ternary materials, precursors, lithium manganate, lithium iron phosphate, high nickel materials, NCA and other cathode materials, as well as the layout of lithium-rich manganese-based, 5V high voltage and other next-generation cathode materials.

[notice issued by the Shanghai Gold Exchange on doing a good job in market risk prevention in the near future] the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on doing a good job in market risk prevention in the near future: there are many uncertain factors affecting the operation of the market in the near future. gold and silver price fluctuations have increased significantly, and market risks have increased significantly. If the risk situation of gold and silver is further intensified, the exchange will take appropriate risk control measures according to the market situation to prevent market risks, maintain market stability, and protect the interests of investors.

Macro focus

Ministry of Finance: from January to August, 4.9584 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued nationwide. Of this total, 1.7701 trillion yuan was issued for general bonds and 3.1883 trillion yuan for special bonds; according to the purpose, 3.7499 trillion yuan of new bonds and 1.2085 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued.

Vice Premier of the State Council: the Yangtze River Delta region should give full play to the advantages of a good economic foundation, a large market space, a complete industrial chain supply chain, and a high degree of opening up to the outside world. take the lead in forming a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and domestic and international cycles promote each other. We should take the lead in exploring key core technologies and tackling key problems in a new national system, and achieve breakthroughs in key areas and key links such as integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence.

Central bank: on Thursday, the central bank launched a 14-day reverse repurchase operation worth 120 billion yuan. As 110 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, a net investment of 10 billion yuan was achieved.

Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 3 per cent from 6 per cent, as further fiscal stimulus is not expected in the short term. Goldman Sachs said this would leave more room for future growth, so raise its growth forecast for the second to fourth quarters of 2021 to offset some of its impact. Goldman Sachs expects the US economy to contract by 3.5 per cent in 2020 and grow by 5.8 per cent in 2021.

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0.5% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%, while the probability of keeping interest rates in the 0.25% range in December is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

FTSE Russell announced in the early morning of September 25 that Chinese government bonds will be included in the FTSE Russell Global Government Bond Index (WGBI), in October 2021 after consulting the FTSE Russell Advisory Board and other index users. The effective date of the inclusion will be finally confirmed in March 2021. Malaysia will be kept on the watch list and may be removed in the future.

Terminal information

Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co., Ltd.) has completed Science and Technology Innovation Board's IPO tutoring and submitted a summary report on the tutoring work to the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau. Fudan Micro said that it is currently in the process of tutoring and acceptance and has not yet made a declaration; it will certainly be declared after acceptance, but there is no expected time at present. According to the data, Fudan Micro, which was established in 1998, is engaged in the design, development and testing of VLSI, and provides system solutions for customers.

[FAW and Neusoft Group set up Joint Innovation Center] according to FAW of China, FAW and Neusoft Group have reached comprehensive cooperation in the field of new generation vehicle software platform. On September 24, the two sides signed a contract at the group headquarters and announced the joint establishment of "China FAW Intelligent Network Alliance Development Institute-Neusoft Group Joint Innovation Center". In this cooperation, FAW, Neusoft Group and Neusoft will explore a new cooperation model for "software-defined vehicles" under the new automobile industry pattern, and jointly build a future vehicle computing platform based on SOA architecture.

[TSMC plans to put into production two new chip packaging plants using 3D Fabric packaging technology in the next two years] the two chip packaging plants that TSMC plans to put into production in the next two years will adopt 3D Fabric packaging technology. According to TSMC's website, they currently have four closed chip test plants, which will increase to six when two new ones are put into production.

[Xinwanda: the subsidiary intends to sign an agreement with Lanxi Economic Development Committee on Xinxing Energy Project] Xinwanda announcement, Zhejiang Xinxing Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ("Zhejiang Xinxing", "Party B"), the holding subsidiary of the company, and the Management Committee of Zhejiang Lanxi Economic Development Zone ("Lanxi Economic Development Committee", "Party A") invest in the construction of the production base project of Zhejiang Xinxing Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in the area under the jurisdiction of Lanxi Economic Development Committee ("Xinxing Energy Project"). The two sides plan to sign the Project Investment Agreement, with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan.

[Ningde Times signed a strategic cooperation agreement with GLP to build a new green electric intelligent supply chain] Ningde Times signed a strategic cooperation agreement with GLP, a leading global investment management and business innovation company. the two sides will rely on their leading advantages in their respective industries to form an asset management joint venture. The two sides jointly create new green electric intelligent supply chain hub facilities, self-driving trunk lines, urban distribution network and vehicle equipment to further promote the green, intelligent and intensive development of logistics warehousing, transportation and distribution.

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