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[SMM analysis] is dragged down! Shanghai and tin fell 3%, the fundamentals have support, it is difficult to fall sharply for the time being.
Sep 24,2020 17:47CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM9 March 24: the clouds have not dispersed, today's non-ferrous metal futures market generally closed green, Shanghai tin is also dragged down by the mood. By the end of the day, the main contract between Shanghai and tin was 2011 yuan / ton, down 2.99%. On the spot side, tin prices have fallen, and downstream purchases are obviously more active than before, while rising water has risen, which is suitable for traders to ship goods. The overall trading atmosphere of the Shanghai tin spot market has warmed up compared with a few days ago.

The dollar index continued to strengthen recently, having achieved five consecutive gains as of September 24, reaching 94.499 in intraday trading today, and financing around 16:45, the dollar index was at 94.419, stable above 94. It is reported that signs of economic decline in Europe and the United States have reignited doubts about the second wave of the epidemic. The euro has been hit by fears of a return to strict blockade restrictions, and Germany will release corporate confidence data later on Thursday, leaving the euro facing another roadblock. Some market analysts say the dollar is likely to continue its upward trend as the renewed increase in novel coronavirus infection in Europe has boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, while Fed officials have called on the government to provide more financial support.

Compared with other kinds of non-ferrous metals, the price of tin shows a strong resistance to fall. In the general decline in metal on September 23, tin can still close the positive, after all, it is difficult to reach the general trend, all the way down. Shanghai tin actually showed signs of multi-hair power last Friday, entering the market from about 141000 yuan / ton, which coincided with signs of a recurrence of the epidemic in Europe and a rise in the US dollar. From an investment point of view, the US dollar is a competitor to non-ferrous metals, and at the same time, as an international currency, the US dollar has a pricing attribute. The rise of the US dollar is bound to suppress tin to a certain extent, and the downward price of tin is the inevitable result of the macro environment.

SMM believes that in the long run, the United States has its own demand for economic development, and the continued rise of the dollar deviates from its willingness to recover and is difficult to remain high. From the recent decline compared with other varieties, tin its fundamentals have a certain support, it is more difficult to appear a bigger decline. Today, the reduction of positions in the main contract is obvious, if the tin price falls below 140000 yuan / ton, it will touch the psychological Jiancang price of some long traders. And the daily moving average is intertwined, the upper pressure level is concentrated, if there is a chance to break through, there is still a chance to rise. However, the recent suppression of the dollar, tin prices are expected to be in a weak situation in the short term, bulls need to be cautious to enter, continue to pay attention to the dollar and the macroeconomic environment, waiting for the opportunity.

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