The main market situation of metals in the previous period of September 21, 2020

Published: Sep 21, 2020 15:13 (GMT+8)

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to next week, the intermonth BACK spread has widened significantly, and suppliers' willingness to sell has clearly strengthened, with intraday quotes being lowered repeatedly to facilitate transactions. On the supply side, some imported copper is expected to arrive gradually next week, and available supply in the market may increase. Meanwhile, as the delivery date approaches, near-month contracts are providing relatively strong support, and the intermonth BACK spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with the possibility of further widening at certain stages, continuing to weigh on spot premiums. On the demand side, under the current pattern of high copper prices, a wide BACK spread, and spot still trading at a premium, some downstream processing enterprises are showing cautious purchase willingness, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and some buyers inclined to wait for spot premiums to pull back further before purchasing. Overall, with expectations of increasing supply at the margin combined with pressure from the high BACK structure, spot premiums in the Shanghai region are expected to remain under pressure next week, continuing the overall downward trend. Going forward, close attention should be paid to actual arrivals of imported cargoes, changes in the intermonth spread before and after delivery, and downstream restocking at lower prices.
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