Home / Metal News / Steel & Iron Ore / Dialogue thread | what is entangled is not the market but the hearts of the people
Dialogue thread | what is entangled is not the market but the hearts of the people
Sep 21,2020 08:09CST
translation
Source:Yide futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: looking forward to thread this wave from 3818 points all the way down the market, although there are twists and turns, but are micro-waves, it only makes the entangled people more lucky, so that this seems to be "unpredictable" market more smooth.

Thread main force 2010 contract last week interpreted a shadow 8 points, shadow 41 points, entity 75 points Zhouyin line, closed at 3603 points, down 62 points from the previous week, a weekly decline of 1.92%. Trading volume continued to expand, and positions in Synchronize increased by nearly 50, 000 hands. Increase the position increment of the downside, static view, so that the market does not have any hypocrisy. The daily line MACD has fallen below the 0 axis for the second time, showing obvious signs of weakness; the weekly line MACD has just been on the verge of death, and the price has fallen as much as 250 points. Through such data, we can feel that the main force continues to let the market decline, and its shadow continues to make people with rising prices continue to be its opponents, as well as uncertain empty single holders to get out of the car and even enter the multi-military camp. The transaction of double-edged sword is often a kind of double kill, and the person who can achieve win-win situation must be a wise person with extraordinary self-discipline.

The final change in positions last week can erase some confusion: the Yong'an futures seat, which has a wide gap in short positions, increased by nearly 21000 hands over the weekend, making it the first main short position, although the entry position is not satisfactory. At least trying to balance its long order. Donghai futures, which were once suppressed, continued to increase their positions by nearly 10,000 hands, and the short belief continued to strengthen. Overall, in the top 20 long positions, bears lead the bulls by nearly 50, 000 hands. Such figures reveal that the air force is making a comeback and that no seat is a winning general. Through such a change in positions, what we still see is a tangled heart.

Combing the position changes, and then take a look at last week's time-sharing panorama, filter through the twists and turns of the micro-waves, you will find that the market is smooth, but the tangled heart so that the market has a winding detour, it can not change the tone of the mainstream market. There is a 6-point difference between the vertical coordinate high of 3686 and the first pressure level of 3680 given last week, and the high point of the first K line at the beginning of last week was 3680, and then a round of downkill began. The positive line energy of 3686 points and its front line is not as good as that of the first K line. With the cooperation of the following indicators, it is reasonable that there is a quantity of three axes stacked and marked K behind; the Abscissa low of 3562 points shows a small rebound, and it also makes a temporary triple bottom of time sharing, which makes the market full without losing its flavor. 3562 is only a gap between 3562 and the half quartile we are talking about, and this point is only 12:00 after a clear time-sharing five-wave drop has been completed. There is an obvious shrinking of energy and immediately followed by a relatively strong positive line wrapping it this negative line, and the rate of decline is also more than 100 points, reaching 3550 points, there can be a rebound.

The existence of these conditions gives a good reason for both the low and the high, and it does not exceed the trading "answer" that we have given. If so, its "movement" only makes the uncertain people more entangled, making the market richer and smoother; it should also make the more entangled people work harder to feel its every pulse, keep up with the mainstream market and eliminate the clutter it should have.

Back to the daily line structure, it should be more clear at a glance, our forecast last week got extraordinary results: once the belt volume broke the 60-day moving average, the rebound ended. When it broke 3638 points, there was no hesitation in terms of time-sharing, and the precursors were very obvious. The high point of the K-line of the day at 3686 is just a reflection of the day, and its follow-up is a market that can be remembered in one fell swoop. This is the ninth day since the high point of 3818, and it is also a regular trend to break or break. The volume in front of it seems to be stable is actually an illusion, because each day's close is below the five-day moving average. When you see through, your empty order will certainly be unmoved, and you will certainly be able to follow such a smooth market. Although there was a positive close on Friday, but the amount of energy also did not have an outstanding performance, barely standing 3600 points as shoulder-to-shoulder 5 antennas, but the performance on Friday night also did not dare to have too many extravagant expectations.

When the market has been interpreted so far, the advice I can give is that high-level short orders can still be stuck in your hands, unless the current close stands at 3600 points and has the capacity to cooperate. In terms of chart structure, the five-month rise has just ushered in a relative time adjustment, which is still insufficient. Although the 12-day adjustment has reached 0.382, there is indeed no obvious sign of stopping the decline, at least in shape, and the conventional expectation of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" seems to have dealt a blow to many people. in terms of the wave structure of the daily line, there is also a difference of 5 waves. From the two dimensions of the contract we have given so far, it is still far from 3400 points, at least from the support of the moving average, it is still 100 points away from the next moving average, at least this position is near the cost of the current thread.

Instead of judging where the bottom of the market is, there are at least a few criteria that allow us to define the relative bottom: when the closing stop is above the five-day moving average, the closing price exceeds the high of the previous day, the volume energy also has relative excess, the three-day low shows signs of rising, and the indicators at the bottom show signs of deviation. Just like there are three opportunities to feel the top 3800 points this time, we should have made a prediction of serious resistance for the first time, and we should have given a clear prediction until this time at 3818 points.

As for the current spot, with the fall of futures prices, its overall trend has been weak, but the previous demand has been there, only the terminal demand on demand. Our macro position has been actively remediing the current situation, so every decline is for the future to continue to rise. But most investors who speculate must start with the current market.

The market is very smooth, but it is not slow, it will always give us the opportunity to enter the market, strive to find clues of the market, over time our hearts will no longer be entangled, will have a real embrace with the market.

"Click to sign up: 2020 Fifth China Electrotechnical Materials supply and demand Trade Summit

Scan the code to participate in the meeting or apply to join the SMM Electrical Industry Exchange Group

Thread
market
futures

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news