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[SMM Metal Breakfast] LME Metal fell across the board * Electrolytic Copper production rose sharply in August * domestic zinc smelters accelerated production from August to September
Sep 9,2020 06:50CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] LME metal fell across the board * electrolytic copper production rose sharply in August * domestic zinc smelters accelerated production from August to September * the operating rate of the enamelled wire industry in August exceeded expectations and still increased slightly in September * foreign demand slowly picked up and exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly month on month in August. China's refined zinc production is expected to increase in August compared with the previous month. * stainless steel production increased for the sixth month in a row, reaching a new high of 2.755 million tons in August.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[macro Outlook] China announces CPI/PPI annual rate in August

【隔夜行情】油价暴跌引发期市动荡 外盘金属全线下跌 避险需求推动美元大涨

Today's focus

[important: SMM China's basic metal production data in August 2020] according to the SMM China's base metal production data in August 2020, the output of electrolytic copper in August was 810500 tons, an increase of 8.14% from the previous month and 5.58% from the same period last year. The output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.189 million tons, an increase of 6.13% over the same period last year. The output of primary lead was 285000 tons, up 9.99% from the previous month and 12.01% from the same period last year. The output of refined zinc was 509100 tons, an increase of 3.3% from the previous month and 1.98% from the same period last year. The output of nickel sulfate increased by 15.69% month-on-month and 18.46% over the same period last year. The output of electrolytic nickel was 14300 tons, down 2.25% from the previous month, an increase of 12.94% over the same period last year.

[SMM data: electrolytic copper production rose sharply in August at the end of maintenance activities] SMM China's electrolytic copper production in August 2020 was 810500 tons, an increase of 8.14% from the previous month and 5.58% from the same period last year. From January to August, SMM China produced a total of 5.9944 million tons of electrolytic copper, an increase of 3.39 percent over the same period last year. The month-on-month increase in domestic electrolytic copper production was mainly due to the fact that there were basically no maintenance arrangements in August, and the output of previously overhauled refineries recovered quickly. on the other hand, the continued adequate supply of cold materials also led to an increase in production. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: the operating rate of the enamelled wire industry in August is higher than expected in September.] according to SMM survey data, the operating rate of enamelled wire in August was 76.63%, up 1.24% from the previous month, 6.59% higher than the same period last year, and 1.37% higher than the expected 75.26%. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises increased by 0.08 percentage points from a month earlier to 78.32%, while that of medium-sized enterprises increased by 3.34 percentage points to 74.34%.

[SMM analysis: foreign demand slowly picks up month-on-month increase in unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports in August] according to data from the General Administration of Customs, unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports increased by 5.89 percent from 395400 tons in August to 373000 tons in July, according to the General Administration of Customs. The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products rose slightly month-on-month in August, mainly because foreign demand rebounded under the dual support of stimulating the economy and strictly controlling the epidemic situation, leading to an increase in China's domestic aluminum export demand, but from a year-on-year point of view, as of August 2020, China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports have been lower than last year for 14 consecutive months, and the year-on-year performance is relatively poor, which is the result of a combination of factors. The impact of the epidemic, the high Hulun ratio and foreign trade friction are the main reasons. "check the details."

[SMM data: steady increase in operating rate SMM China's alumina production increased by 1% month-on-month in August] according to SMM data, China produced 5.966 million tons of alumina in August (31 days), of which metallurgical grade alumina was 5.756 million tons, and the average daily output of metallurgical grade was 185700 tons, an increase of 1% compared with the previous month and an increase of 3.41% over the same period last year. From January to August, China's cumulative output of metallurgical grade alumina was 44.096 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.35% compared with the same period last year. Individual alumina plants in Shanxi continued to increase re-production in August, while new production capacity in southwest China continued to expand, and overall output increased month-on-month in August. "check the details."

[SMM research: domestic zinc smelters accelerated production from August to September under profit stimulus] SMM China's refined zinc production in August 2020 was 509100 tons, an increase of 16300 tons from the previous month, or 3.3% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.98% over the same period last year. A total of 3.869 million tons of refined zinc were produced from January to August, a cumulative growth rate of 3.68 per cent over the same period last year. Among them, the sample alloy output of domestic refining zinc smelters in August was 78000 tons, an increase of 3.94 percent over the previous month. According to SMM research, the domestic refined zinc output in August was higher than expected in July. The main reason: in August, the national benchmark processing fee for 50-grade zinc concentrate rose to 5450 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous month. In addition, the domestic zinc price continued to rise, the production profit of the smelter was repaired, and the smelter took the initiative to increase production driven by profit. "check the details.

[SMM data: China's refined zinc production increased in August compared with the previous month and is expected to increase in September! In August 2020, SMM China produced 509100 tons of refined zinc, an increase of 16300 tons from the previous month, or 3.3% from the previous month, and 1.98% from the same period last year. A total of 3.869 million tons of refined zinc were produced from January to August, a cumulative growth rate of 3.68 per cent over the same period last year. Among them, the sample alloy output of domestic refining zinc smelters in August was 78000 tons, an increase of 3.94% compared with the previous month. "check the details."

[SMM data: stainless steel production increased for six consecutive months and reached a new high of 2.755 million tons in August.] according to SMM research, national stainless steel production in August totaled about 2.7548 million tons, an increase of 136600 tons over July, an increase of about 5.22% month-on-month and 5.87% over the same period last year. The cumulative output of stainless steel in China from January to August 2020 was about 18.391 million tons, down 1.69 percent from the same period last year. The overhaul of some stainless steel plants was completed in July and normal production resumed in August, so the output of stainless steel of all series increased in August. "check the details."

[SMM concern: the first nickel-iron production line of Indonesia Weda Bay project Youshan Nickel was officially released on September 5] according to the latest research of SMM, a 42000kVA nickel pig iron RKEF furnace under Youshan Nickel, Weda bay Industrial Park, Indonesia was ignited on August 20, and the nickel-iron production line was officially put into production on September 5. it is expected that after the production is stable, the monthly output of 1 unit will be about 900Ni tons. This line is the first production line of Youshan Nickel Co., Ltd. Prior to this, six furnaces have been put into production in Weda bay Industrial Park since February this year. "check the details."

[special topic on SMM: realizing the formal commissioning of Shengtun Mining High Ice Nickel Project from 0 to 1 in Nickel Field] on September 8, Shengtun Mining issued its "Progress announcement on Foreign Investment". At its 37th meeting, the company's board of directors examined and adopted the "proposal on investing in the High Nickel Ice Nickel Project with an annual production capacity of 34000 tons of Nickel Metal in Weidabe Industrial Park, Indonesia." The joint venture company Youshan Nickel Indonesia Co., Ltd. (Youshan Nickel) will implement the construction of a high nickel matte project with an annual output of 34000 tons of nickel. It is reported that Youshan Nickel Co., Ltd., which has an annual production capacity of 34000 tons of nickel metal and high matte nickel project No. 1 electric furnace, successfully produced the first batch of Ferro nickel on September 5, 2020 in Weidabe Industrial Park, Indonesia. "check the details."

According to recent reports, the global stainless steel mills announced a price increase in September, the US / European steel mills announced an increase in the surcharge of 300 series alloy, while the price of 300 series alloy in Japan rose strongly. [SMM analysis: the price of 300 series stainless steel in many places still needs to be boosted.] according to recent reports, the global stainless steel mills announced a price increase in September. The Taiwan Federation announced in September that it would raise the price by $170, the fifth month in a row. Posco also plans to increase the price of 300 series stainless steel by 100000 won in September, and the price of imported corresponding products and surface treatment materials has also increased by 100000 won. "check the details.

[SMM data: the national production of electrolytic nickel dropped by 2.25% in August, about 14300 tons in Gansu continued maintenance in Tianjin or stopped production] in August 2020, the national output of electrolytic nickel was 14300 tons, down 2.25% from the previous month, an increase of 12.94% over the same period last year, and a total decrease of 330t in August compared with July production. Among them, the output of Gansu smelter decreased by 3.85% compared with July. At present, the smelter is still in the stage-by-stage overhaul period, but it is reported that the impact of maintenance on production will be included in September data, so there is no decline for the time being. Liaoning smelter and Shandong smelter maintain normal production, output is the same as in July. The output of Xinjiang smelter increased by 58.9% month-on-month compared with July. "check the details."

[SMM hot roll arrival report: environmental protection limit production "big thunder, little rain" market supply high to maintain stability! The arrival of mainstream market resources this week is expected to be 248000 tons, which is basically stable compared with last week. According to the investigation of SMM steel plant, the implementation of the production limit of environmental protection is limited recently, which does not have a great impact on the production of hot coil steel mills, the overall hot coil production is relatively normal, and the transportation of resources is relatively stable, so the overall market arrival volume is basically in a stable state. Shanghai market: in the past two weeks, there has been a large and stable arrival of goods in the Shanghai market, and the pressure on the supply side has gradually intensified. However, the digestion of the market has not improved, prompting its spot fundamentals to weaken. In addition, although the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan is stricter than the previous year, the year-on-year production limit is far less than that of last year, and the overall situation is still in the stage of heavy thunder and little rain. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: raw material prices fall or lead to a negative drop in niobium prices] at present, niobium prices are stable at 450600 yuan / kg. According to SMM to the holder, due to the recent decline in imported niobium ore prices, the domestic niobium price may fall slightly in the future. Niobium is widely used in steel, military and aerospace industries. Since the beginning of this year, the export orders of domestic niobium downstream enterprises have been affected to a certain extent due to the epidemic situation of novel coronavirus and the increase in international trade frictions. as a result, niobium prices have dropped somewhat. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: is the price increase of tungsten products by many enterprises an internal driving force this month?] Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry announced long order quotations in the first half of September, in which wolframite concentrate (WO3 ≥ 55%) was 86500 yuan / standard ton, which was 4500 yuan / standard ton higher than that of the previous period (long order quotation in the second half of August), and scheelite concentrate (WO3 ≥ 55%) was 85000 yuan / standard ton, 4500 yuan / standard ton higher than the previous period. Ammonium paratungstate (national standard zero) was 131000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5000 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. According to SMM, the price of tungsten series products has been rising since July this year. Starting from the tungsten concentrate at the raw material end, it is gradually transmitted to the downstream powder, tungsten carbide, ammonium paratungstate (APT) and other products, realizing the improvement of the overall price level of the whole industry chain. "View details.

Important news of metals and industry

[Codelco:5-July Ministro Hales mine ore processing efficiency increased significantly] according to Codelco's website, the raw ore processing capacity of its mine Ministro Hales reached 2530 tons per hour from May to July, an increase of 23 percent from the 2060 tons per hour in the first four months of this year. In the past three months, the mine has been able to process 57000 tons per day, which has reached the expected level of 2021, and the daily ore processing capacity from January to April this year is only 46000 tons. It is reported that in July this year, Codelco copper production totaled 133300 tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and copper production in June was 131900 tons. Among them, Ministro Hales,Chuquicamata and Radomiro Tomic mines produced a total of 67100 tons of copper in July, an increase of 1200 tons compared with the previous month. The copper output of the Salvador mine in July was 46000 tons, an increase of 12% compared with the previous month.

[the European Commission regards bauxite as a "key raw material"] it is reported that the European Commission has added bauxite to its list of key raw materials in 2020, and shared an action plan and a forward-looking study on strategic technologies and industries in 2030 and 2050. The inclusion of bauxite in the European Commission's list of key raw materials marks the role of the aluminium industry in supporting Europe's transition to a green and digital economy. Because of its unique performance, aluminum has become a material for clean technology manufacturers in applications such as renewable energy, batteries, power systems, resource-efficient packaging, energy-efficient buildings and clean mobility. Research shows that although the global demand for aluminum will grow rapidly by 50% in the next 30 years, the demand for raw materials will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. Therefore, Europe needs to develop an ambitious and responsible global procurement strategy for bauxite.

[Shanghai tin inventories continue to rebound to hit a five-month high] data released by the London Metal Exchange showed that tin inventories on the exchange fluctuated at a high of 5340 tons, near a more than four-month high. Data released last week showed that shanghai tin inventories continued to pick up as of September 4, rising 8.08 per cent in a week to 3921 tons, hitting a five-month high.

[SMM research: the rate of increase in finished material prices is weaker than that of scrap, and the operating rate of electric furnace is difficult to maintain stability] according to SMM research, as of September 8, the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills reached 78.85%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period last week, and a decrease of 3.03 percentage points from 81.88% of the survey on August 4. Recently, the price fluctuation of scrap steel is strong, and the increase of scrap steel is faster than the price of finished materials, and the profits of EAF steel mills have been further compressed. At the same time, the scrap procurement of domestic long-process steel mills is more active, and the shortage of scrap resources is still the main factor to restrain the increase of the operating rate of EAF steel mills.

[German Metal Federation of Trade unions: calling on the government to support the green reform of steel mills] it is reported that IG Metall, the German metal workers' industry federation, called on the German government to provide state assistance and called on steel companies to form an alliance to shift the steel industry to blast furnace renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions. Hogman (Joerg Hofmann), head of IG Metall, said that because companies such as ThyssenKrupp (Thyssenkrupp), Salstar (Saarstahl) and Salzgit (Salzgitter) would not be able to achieve this goal on their own, billions of dollars would be needed to turn to green steel. According to JoergHofmann, despite the need for an alliance, a merger between ThyssenKrupp and Salzgit could be risky.

Yesterday, representatives of SMM and lithium downstream enterprises came to Jiangxi Feiyu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., the subsidiary company of Jiuling New Energy, Wei Dongdong, CEO of Jiuling New Energy, Pan Rui, Secretary of the Board of Directors, and Pan Longhui, General Manager of Feiyu New Energy, warmly welcomed and received them. First of all, Pan Rui, secretary of the board of directors of Jiuling New Energy, gave a detailed account of the company's business development.

The second stop of Jiangxi Yongxing Special Steel New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.] under the influence of the epidemic situation, subsidy slope, and brand-new policies, we can better achieve accelerated overshoot and rapid heating up in the second half of the year. We have integrated the upstream and downstream enterprises located in the industrial chain, so why don't we follow our "lithium power travel" and inspect the production situation of raw material enterprises in China's lithium power industry on the spot? September 8-11 Ma Qiong, Executive Director of SMM, Wang Tian, Director of SMM New Energy Division, and Yu Lei, marketing consultant, led SMM staff and representatives of lithium downstream enterprises to visit Jiangxi lithium power industry raw material enterprises. The second stop is Jiangxi Yongxing Special Steel New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. "check details.

Ganfeng Lithium Industry: the recovery battery lithium extraction production line can produce battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide products. Ganfeng lithium industry said that the company has a recovery battery lithium extraction production line, which can produce battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide products. The operating income of Ganfeng lithium industry in the first half of 2020 was 2.387 billion yuan, down 27.45% from the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was-697 million yuan, down 460.15% from the same period last year.

[Vale builds Brazil's largest energy storage battery project] Brazilian mining giant Vale is working with Siemens and MicroPower Comerc to build a 5MW/10MWh lithium-ion battery system at a large port facility in Rio de Janeiro. According to reports, the system, which will be owned and operated by MicroPower Comerc, has the first batch of Tesla Megapacks deployed in Brazil. The construction of this energy storage system is planned to be used for industrial "peak cutting" to save costs for Vale.

For the precious metals market as a whole, the huge global uncertainty under the epidemic is a concern on the one hand and inflation on the other. RJO Futures senior market strategists said rising inflation could mean low real interest rates and long-term support for gold and silver. Gold prices have been in a state of consolidation since breaking new records in August, unable to get more action energy, but gold prices remain around the key 50-day moving average, showing relatively strong momentum.

[Baotou City Industry and Information Bureau: the prices of rare earth products rose by half in August.] in August, the prices of 33 kinds of industrial products mainly monitored by the Baotou City Industry and Information Bureau showed an upward trend. Judging from the month-on-month situation, the average price of 22 kinds of products increased month-on-month, accounting for 66.6% of the total number of monitored products, and the number of price-rising products decreased by 2 kinds compared with July; the average price of 8 kinds of products decreased, accounting for 24.2% of the total number of monitored products; the number of products with falling prices decreased by 1 kind compared with July; the average price of three kinds of products remained the same, accounting for 9% of the total number of monitored products, and the number of products with the same price decreased by 1 kind compared with July.

[analysis of lithium power data in August: SAIC GM Wuling production surpassed Tesla's iron lithium installation for the first time, but the installed capacity has declined? According to the SMM New Energy Database, the production of new energy vehicles in August was 106000, an increase of 10.3 percent over the previous month, including 95000 new energy passenger vehicles, accounting for 90.4 percent, 6000 new energy buses, accounting for 5.6 percent, 4000 new energy special vehicles, accounting for 4 percent, and power battery installation of 5.1 GWH, up 48 percent from the same period last year and 3 percent from the previous year. This month, SAIC GM Wuling overtook Tesla to top the list, reaching 17105 vehicles, an increase of nearly 5000 over July. The installed capacity of new battery companies Hua Ting Power and Keyi New Power also increased significantly. "check the details.

[Brent crude fell below $40 a barrel for the first time since late June because of weak demand prospects] London crude futures fell below $40 a barrel for the first time since late June as weak demand and weak stock markets dampened sentiment. Brent crude futures fell more than 6% on Tuesday to their lowest level in nearly three months. The stagnant recovery in Asia, the end of the peak summer driving season in the United States and the increase in OPEC+ supply point to a bleak short-term outlook for crude oil. Coupled with the weakening of the stock market, the price of crude oil fell below the key psychological threshold of $40 a barrel.

Macro focus

[Hu Chunhua presided over a forum of foreign business associations in China] Vice Premier Hu Chunhua of the State Council presided over a forum of foreign business associations in China in Beijing on the 8th. He stressed that China will unswervingly promote a higher level of opening up to the outside world, create a better business environment for foreign-funded enterprises and bring more development opportunities. He stressed that China is taking the implementation of the Foreign Investment Law and its implementing regulations and the regulations on optimizing the Business Environment as an opportunity to speed up the improvement of the foreign investment promotion, protection and service system, starting with the system and mechanism, and strive to address the concerns of foreign-funded enterprises.

[vice Premier of the State Council: opening to the outside World is China's basic state policy will not be shaken by a temporary incident] Vice Premier Hu Chunhua presided over a forum of foreign business associations in China in Beijing on the 8th. He stressed that opening up to the outside world is China's basic state policy and will not be shaken by a temporary incident. China is taking the implementation of the Foreign Investment Law and its implementing regulations and the regulations on optimizing the Business Environment as an opportunity to speed up the improvement of the foreign investment promotion, protection and service system, starting with the system and mechanism, and strive to address the concerns of foreign-funded enterprises. At the same time, the preferential policies issued by China are equally applicable to foreign-funded enterprises. It is hoped that the Association of Foreign businessmen in China will play a greater role, promote closer ties between Chinese and foreign enterprises, and help foreign-funded enterprises further strengthen their confidence in the development of China.

[regulatory relaxation of standards for small and micro loans concern loans can also be extended to "repay principal and interest". On September 8, two people from large banks said that the central bank and other departments have recently "patched" policies related to delaying the repayment of principal and interest on loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. banks are encouraged to further support small and medium-sized enterprises. Regulatory requirements, for inclusive small and micro loans, the major banks should increase the proportion of credit loans, extension rate. In particular, concern loans that meet certain conditions can also be extended.

Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce: let more foreign-funded enterprises share China's opportunities. Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce and deputy representative of international trade negotiations, said at the China International Investment and Trade Fair held on the 8th, let more foreign-funded enterprises share the Chinese market and opportunities. The Ministry of Commerce of China has stepped up efforts to promote the effective implementation of various policies and measures, firmly stabilized the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment, and created new advantages in international cooperation and competition with a high level of opening up to the outside world. we will promote the formation of a new development pattern in which the domestic and international cycles are the main body and the domestic and international cycles promote each other.

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in September is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

McCarthy, Minority Leader (Republican) in the U.S. House of Representatives: Republicans are trying to break the deadlock in negotiations on the virus aid bill. The Senate will vote on the Republican bailout plan on Thursday.

Terminal information

[BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy storage batteries from January to August is about 5.813GWh] on the evening of Sept. 7, BYD released August sales figures, totaling 37000 vehicles, up 2.4% from 36000 in the same period last year, and a slight increase of 2.4%. The cumulative sales in January-August were 227000, down 23.1% from a year earlier. In terms of new energy vehicles, BYD sold 15283 new energy vehicles in August, compared with 16719 in the same period last year, down 8.6% from January to August last year, and 91060 new energy vehicles, down 49.11% from a year earlier.

[British electric vehicle sales doubled in August] according to British official figures, although overall car sales in the UK fell by 5% in August, electric vehicle sales doubled. Of this total, sales of pure electric vehicles reached 5589, compared with 3147 in the same period last year, and plug-in hybrid sales reached 2922, up from 910 in the same period last year. Electric cars accounted for 1/10 of all new car sales in the UK that month.

Imports increased by nearly 80%! South Korea still relies heavily on Japanese semiconductor equipment] South Korea's imports of semiconductor devices and integrated circuit manufacturing equipment from Japan totaled US $1.7 billion in the first seven months of 2020, an increase of 77.2 percent over the same period last year, the Korean Trade Association (KITA) announced on September 6th. In addition, imports of processors and controllers and photosensitive semiconductor devices increased by 8.6% and 3.7%, respectively. Although South Korea's total imports from Japan fell by about 10% in the same period compared with the same period last year, the semiconductor sector, as a pillar industry, is still heavily dependent on Japan. South Korean media pointed out that this data is related to the large-scale investment of Samsung Electronics.

[the construction of the Weiqiao aluminum lightweight base project has been fully accelerated] since the construction of the Weiqiao lightweight base project began after the Spring Festival this year, the Weiqiao lightweight base project has worked hard to overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic. The vast number of cadres and workers vigorously carry forward the enterprise spirit of "fast, efficient, and courageously strive for the first class". In accordance with the "five same and five mornings" of Weiqiao Venture Group, namely, civil construction, equipment installation, personnel training, product development, market development Synchronize; The construction technical reform management policy of early construction, early installation, early commissioning, early reaching production and early return "ensures the rapid progress of the project construction.

[it is expected to add about 225000 fuel vehicle targets in 2020] A few days ago, Social Science Literature Publishing House and China Automotive Technology Research Center jointly released the New Energy vehicle Blue Book: China New Energy vehicle Industry Development report (2020). The blue book pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and other places have increased the number of fuel vehicle increment indicators in order to boost the automobile consumer market and effectively hedge the impact of the epidemic. According to preliminary statistics, it is expected that about 225000 fuel vehicle targets will be added in 2020. At present, the car purchase restrictions are implemented in Hainan Province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Hangzhou. It is worth mentioning that Guiyang, which has implemented car purchase restrictions for eight years, lifted the restrictions in 2019. In the first half of this year, the epidemic had a great impact on the automobile industry. The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology all issued relevant regulations to encourage car consumption, while local governments responded one after another and boosted the local car market in terms of car purchase subsidies and additional issuance indicators.

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