SMM9 March 7: non-ferrous metals rose and fell back in the afternoon today. By the end of the day, Shanghai Copper rose 1.63%, Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.37%, Shanghai lead rose 0.35%, Shanghai Nickel fell 0.04%, Shanghai Tin fell 0.07%, Shanghai Zinc fell 0.68%. In terms of nickel, the prices of nickel and various metals fell sharply, dominated by macro factors such as the collapse of US stocks and the appreciation of the US dollar, and there is a range of appropriate recovery and adjustment in the short term. The performance of nickel fundamentals is temporarily stable, but stainless steel prices tend to peak at a high level, and the upward pressure on nickel prices will increase, but at the same time, the space for callback will be limited; at present, the short-term fundamentals of nickel are good, and in the long run, it is also better than originally expected; 300 series stainless steel high output assist high nickel pig iron in the third quarter has changed from leftover to shortage, and in the fourth quarter or tight balance, the surplus is less than originally expected, so some nickel market fundamentals of nickel pig iron are good. In terms of pure nickel, although consumption is not good, the decrease in domestic spot nickel imports adjusts the market to a certain extent, so that the domestic social inventory is basically balanced and the market performance is relatively stable. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 117500-124000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 15000-15800 US dollars / ton.

[SMM point of view] can the fundamentals of Shanghai Nickel continue to rise after several times approaching the 120000 mark?

In terms of black system, thread fell by 0.59%, hot coil by 1.25%, stainless steel by 0.27%, coke by 0.2%, coking coal by 0.7%, iron ore by 0.29%, and the operating rate of blast furnaces on the demand side remained high, but recently, there are still strict expectations of environmental production restrictions in Tangshan area. production restrictions hype or continue to affect demand. In addition, the situation of high inventory of steel downstream has not been alleviated, and there is a certain pressure on steel prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills is weak, and the current price of iron ore is favorable. However, the profits of steel mills have rebounded slightly recently, the structural contradiction of superimposed port spot has not been resolved, and iron ore prices are also strongly supported. There are many replenishment expectations near the National Day, which will still boost iron ore prices, so although the fundamentals of supply and demand weakened month-on-month in September, prices may remain volatile in a high range.

"SMM Analysis] the range of ore prices fluctuated after the month-on-month drop in iron ore imports in August.

The previous period of crude oil fell 4.35%, and on September 6th Saudi Aramco cut the price of all grades of crude oil exported to Asia and the United States in October, the first price cut for light oil exports to Asia since June, a sign that fuel demand in the world's largest oil exporter has shaken as the global epidemic intensifies. In addition, the cooling of market risk appetite has put collective pressure on global stock markets, a decline in commodities and a drag on the oil market.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.04%, Shanghai silver fell 0.6%, and US non-farm payrolls data were better than expected, making gold and silver lower. While Britain's Brexit talks worsened, the United States said it would blacklist SMIC, and the renewed risk aversion relationship between China and the United States provided some support for precious metals. Today, the dollar index rebounded during the day, and gold and silver shocks were weaker.

As of today's day close:

Today's capital flow

There was an obvious return of funds on Monday, with Wenhua commodities inflow of 1.318 billion yuan a day, of which 731 million yuan entered agricultural products and 588 million yuan went into industrial products futures. Feed sector was favored, 728 million supported its rally, corn monopolized nearly 600 million funds. Shanghai copper shot up and fell back, but there was still an increase of 561 million in capital, while the non-ferrous metal plate reaped a total of 443 million yuan. In addition, the crude oil sector that plummeted across the line received 474 million of the market for picking, while 330 million outflowed from the chemical sector.

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