[SMM afternoon Review] Macro-bearish continued to disturb the metal market collective decline, supply-side loosening of the last period of crude oil fell 1.11%

SMM9 March 4: the commodity market generally fell in the morning, Shanghai nickel in non-ferrous metals fell 2.13%, and Shanghai lead and Shanghai lead fell by more than 1%. Mainly due to macro negative effects, the three major indexes of US stocks fell overnight, with the Nasdaq down 4.96%, the S & P 500 down 3.51%, and the Dow down 2.78%. Both recorded the biggest one-day decline since June 11. And the dollar index rose three times in a row to continue to put pressure on commodities. In the Shanghai nickel pullback, SMM believes that it is dominated by macro factors such as the collapse of US stocks and the appreciation of the US dollar, and there is a range of appropriate recovery and adjustment in the short term; nickel fundamentals are temporarily stable, but stainless steel prices tend to peak at a high level, and the upward pressure on nickel prices will increase, but at the same time, the space for callback is also limited; at present, the short-term fundamentals of nickel are good, and in the long run, they are better than originally expected. In terms of pure nickel, although consumption is not good, the decrease in domestic spot nickel imports adjusts the market to a certain extent, so that the domestic social inventory is basically balanced and the market performance is relatively stable.

Aluminum, inventory data rose slightly failed to maintain the state of going to the warehouse, mainly because yesterday's SMM statistics Gongyi area electrolytic aluminum inventory increase is more obvious, in the vicinity of 29000 tons, the local downstream wait-and-see consumption is mediocre, and the recent delivery of more aluminum ingots, early due to railway restrictions on transport of goods are now also blocked to the warehouse, resulting in a short-term inventory increase.

In terms of black, threaded iron ore fell more than 1% and hot coil fell 0.81%. Today, due to macro-bearish, the atmosphere of the futures market turned down, and the black department began a technical pullback. This week, the thread opens the warehouse again, and it is mainly driven by the rapid removal of the factory warehouse. However, considering that the current year-on-year growth rate is still as high as 40%, and the strong expectation of demand has not been fulfilled for the time being, the journey of "transformation" of rebar fundamentals is not over yet, and it may enter the consolidation and digestion stage in the short term after the recent rally. In terms of iron ore, the industry believes that at present, the overall inventory of raw material iron ore is still low, and the total port inventory has recently shown a trend of stopping falling and rebounding, of which Australia mine inventory is hovering at a low level, which is still a small trend of destocking, while Brazilian inventory is showing an overall increasing trend, superimposed by recent typhoons and other factors, iron ore arrival volume is difficult to have a large increase, so there is a strong support for iron ore prices.

Crude oil fell 1.11% in the previous period. Prices fell on Friday and are set to fall this week as investor focus shifts to sluggish demand and abundant fuel supplies, offsetting support from a weak dollar. Brent crude futures are now down $0.27, or 0.61%, at $43.80 a barrel, which could be the biggest weekly decline since June. Us crude oil futures fell 28 cents, or 0.68 percent, to $41.09 a barrel, which is expected to fall for the first time in five weeks.

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