WBMS report: 1.335 million tons of excess supply in the global primary aluminum market from January to June 2020

SMM: according to a report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics ((WBMS)), the global primary aluminum market has an oversupply of 1.335 million tons from January to June 2020 and 735000 tons for the whole year of 2019.

The demand for primary aluminum from January to June 2020 is 31.58 million tons, which is 190000 tons less than that of the same period in 2019.

Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and the full impact of the state blockade imposed to contain the COVID-19 epidemic may not be fully reflected in trade statistics.

Global primary aluminum production increased by 3.1% from January to June. Total inventories were reported to have increased during the first six months, which as of the end of June was 254000 tons higher than the December 2019 level.

Shanghai inventories rose steadily in the early months, but fell 162000 tonnes in May to 223700 tonnes at the end of June. It was 185100 tons at the end of December 2019. LME stocks stood at 1.6383 million tons, compared with 1.473 million tons at the end of 2019.

A large number of unreported inventory changes are not taken into account in consumption statistics, especially unreported inventory held in Asia.

Overall, global primary aluminium production rose 3.1 per cent from January to June 2020 compared with the same period last year, with Chinese production estimated at 17.868 million tons, which now accounts for about 54 per cent of global production due to increased imports of bauxite and alumina supplies.

Compared with January-June 2019, China's apparent demand increased by 4.8%, and the output of semi-finished products increased by 9.7%. China will become a net importer of unwrought aluminum in 2020. From January to June 2020, the net export volume of China's aluminum semi-finished products was 2.101 million tons, compared with 2.485 million tons in the same period last year. Exports of semi-finished goods fell by about 14 per cent year-on-year.

From January to June, production in the 28 countries of the European Union fell 2.2% from a year earlier, and NAFTA production increased by 4.5%. Demand in the 28 countries of the European Union fell 698000 tons compared with the same period last year.

Global demand fell 0.6% from January to June compared with the same period last year.

In June 2020, the output of primary aluminum was 5.5815 million tons and the demand was 5.4273 million tons.

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