Exclusive: China produced 14,600 mt of refined nickel in July, output in Xinjiang and Shandong fell

[9.29 Morning Meeting Summary] US Treasuries had their worst week in 19 months. Last Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.22% intraday (a new high since 2007), and the 30-year broke above 5.5% (a new high since 2004), rising for four consecutive weeks. Japanese and US officials released signals that "a weak yen is problematic," and the yen rebounded more than 1% intraday. US stocks stopped falling and rebounded on Friday, with the Dow up 0.93% and the S&P 500 up 0.51%. Gold futures halted a four-day losing streak but still fell more than 2% for the week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) opened lower and moved lower in early trading, closing the morning session at 123,640 yuan/mt, down 1.21%. The surge in US Treasury yields above 5.2% and a strong US dollar brought macro pressure back to the forefront, compounded by significant LME inventory buildup during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, leading to a catch-up decline in SHFE nickel at today's open. Funds may maintain a wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the holiday. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 123,000-126,000 yuan/mt.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is currently affecting Palawan, the Visayas and Mindanao, bringing cloudy conditions, scattered rains and thunderstorms. ITCZ expected continue affecting Caraga, Northern Mindanao and most of the Visayas through September 29, with rain and thunderstorms potentially continuing into October 2 due to an additional weather system. For the Philippine nickel industry, Palawan, Surigao and Homonhon may see intermittent moderate to heavy rainfall, which could temporarily slow mine-road transportation, ore barging and vessel loading. Potentially, it could trigger localized flooding or landslides in affected areas. SMM views that The ITCZ is currently a weather-related operational risk rather than a broad supply disruption. Short-duration heavy rain could cause temporary delays in mining and logistics, but the overall impact will depend on rainfall intensity and persistence at individual mining and loading sites.

On September 28, Indonesia's nickel ore market remained stable, with prices for major grades unchanged: Ni 1.2%: $26.5/wmt, unchanged; Ni 1.3%: $28.5/wmt, unchanged; Ni 1.4%: $51.8/wmt, unchanged; Ni 1.5%: $58.5/wmt, unchanged; Ni 1.6%: $63.4/wmt, unchanged. In the market, additional 2026 RKAB quotas are gradually being approved and released, but the total additional quota for the year has yet to be officially announced. Market attention is gradually shifting toward actual mine production and nickel ore shipments. Meanwhile, water shortages caused by El Niño continue to affect the nickel industry in Sulawesi. Since September 22, operating rates at some RKEF lines at IMIP have fallen by around 30%–40%. SMM estimates that if the impact persists for half a month, NPI production could decline by around 50,000–70,000 mt in physical tonnage, equivalent to approximately 5,500–7,700 mt of contained nickel. As of September 28, no nickel smelter in Sulawesi had declared force majeure.