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Macro Roundup (Aug 5)

iconAug 5, 2020 08:57
Source:SMM
Gold prices soared past the key $2,000 mark for the first time in history on Tuesday, as the ultra-low interest rate environment and hopes for more US stimulus to safeguard the coronavirus-hit economy embellished the safe-haven metals appeal.

SHANGHAI, Aug 5 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Gold prices soared past the key $2,000 mark for the first time in history on Tuesday, as the ultra-low interest rate environment and hopes for more US stimulus to safeguard the coronavirus-hit economy embellished the safe-haven metals appeal.

“Safe-haven buying has propelled gold prices to breach $2,000 for the first time as the U.S. dollar tested lows last seen over two years ago, negative real rates fell to levels last seen in 2013 and expectations for further stimulus packages continue to build,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

On Wall Street, stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, building on the previous session’s strong gains, as lawmakers tried to make inroads on a new coronavirus stimulus package.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 164.07 points, or 0.6%, to finish the day at 26,828.47 while the S&P 500 added a more modest 0.36% and ended at 3,306.51. The Nasdaq Composite staged a late-day turnaround to add a similar 0.35%, notching its fifth straight day of gains and a record close. The Composite, up more than 21% in 2020, closed at 10,941.17.

The upswing on Tuesday came after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows held “productive” discussions on Monday, despite a handful of issues still outstanding. Both sides have indicated they agree on another $1,200 stimulus check, but remain deadlocked on additional unemployment assistance.

The US dollar edged lower in choppy trade against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, choking off a recent rally fueled by dollar bears taking profits on short positions, while investors watched talks in Washington on the next round of coronavirus relief. After its biggest monthly decline in a decade in July, the greenback started August on a firmer note as some investors trimmed short positions.

Treasury yield fell on Tuesday as investors awaited for details over the next stimulus deal with top lawmakers remaining divided. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped 2 basis points to 0.539% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also fell to 1.211%. Yields move inversely to prices. U.S. lawmakers have been discussing a new round of fiscal stimulus as the coronavirus pandemic continues to take a toll on the economy. Policymakers in the U.S. Congress seemed to agree that a second round of stimulus checks is needed, but have not yet reached a deal over the details, including on how much dependents should get. 

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, on track to close at near five-month highs, on hopes the United States is making progress on a new economic stimulus package and signs America is making progress on curbing the coronavirus spread.

Nonferrous metals on the SHFE closed mixed in overnight trading. Copper shed 0.29%, zinc fell 0.32% and tin weakened 0.44%, while aluminium edged up 0.1% and nickel rose 0.67%. Lead ended flat.

On the LME, nonferrous metals, except for copper and tin, cruised higher on Tuesday. Aluminium jumped 1.35%, zinc added 0.8%, lead advanced 0.75% and nickel inched up 0.18%. Meanwhile, copper declined 0.43% and tin shed 0.59%.

The Federal Reserve is completing a year-long policy review and is expected to announce the results soon. One big change would be a harder commitment to getting inflation higher, through a pledge not to raise rates until it hits at least 2%. Markets have been betting on higher inflation, with surging gold prices, a falling dollar and a rush to inflation-indexed bonds.

Economic data slated for release on Wednesday include Caixin July services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China, finalised July services PMI and June retail sales in eurozone, US July ADP employment, trade balance in June, finalised Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July.   

Macroeconomics

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