[SMM Cobalt Lithium spot Weekly report (0727-0731)] Cobalt prices are moving upstream and downstream this week and wait and see the stock plan.

SMM, July 31:

Battery and downstream terminal market: in terms of power market, recently, some ternary battery enterprises have prepared stocks for new models listed at home and abroad in September and October, and the output of ternary batteries is expected to increase month-on-month in July and August. In addition, BYD's "Han" went on sale this month, and the model has not yet been registered from January to June, and the installed capacity of iron-lithium batteries is expected to increase significantly in July. In the small power market, electric bicycles accounted for 58% of the total number of bicycles from January to May 2020, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year, according to the China Bicycle Association. Since May this year, the market for electric two-wheelers has become hot, mainly with a large number of shared motorbikes in cities of the third and fourth lines and below, whose price is much lower than that of buying an electric bicycle and easing the demand for people to travel during the epidemic. It is expected that the production of electric bicycles will continue to increase from June to October this year, while increasing the output of related products of some battery enterprises.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: the price of electrolytic cobalt has risen sharply this week. The supply of cobalt raw materials in Africa has tightened and increased prices, storage news catalysed, domestic cobalt prices continue to rise, capital inflows have increased significantly, and the market has risen to 300000 yuan / ton. although the downstream demand of electrolytic cobalt has not improved significantly, the normal purchasing demand is still there. Electrolytic cobalt prices may continue to rise. The price of cobalt intermediate goods has risen this week. Affected by the epidemic, the shipping schedule of a few cobalt raw material suppliers continued to deteriorate in August, the domestic supply of cobalt raw materials continued to tighten, and spot prices may continue to rise. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 25.7-272000 yuan / ton this week, which is 20, 000 yuan / ton higher than that of last week. SMM Cobalt Intermediate prices range from $10.2 to $10.7 per pound, up $0.20 per pound from last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: the price of cobalt salt rose this week. This week, the transaction price of cobalt sulfate has risen from 4.6-47000 yuan / ton to 5-52000 yuan / ton. Cobalt raw materials cherish the impact of price increases, cobalt sulfate prices continue to rise, but there is no obvious improvement in downstream demand, the price increase is still not smooth, or will narrow the cobalt sulfate price increase. This week, the transaction price of cobalt chloride rose from 5.6-57000 yuan / ton to 6-62000 yuan / ton, which is still higher than the price of cobalt sulfate. The downstream 3C digital demand is better than the power ternary demand, and the flexibility to accept the price increase of cobalt chloride is greater than that of cobalt sulfate, and the price of cobalt chloride continues to rise. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM this week is 5-52000 yuan / ton, an average price of 3750 yuan / ton higher than last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 6-62000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 4000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of SMM battery grade nickel sulfate is 2.45-24800 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Cobalt tetroxide: the price of cobalt tetroxide rose sharply this week. Due to the shortage and rising prices of domestic cobalt raw materials, the quotations of cobalt tetroxide suppliers have risen sharply this week, and the downstream demand is still there, and the price may rise further; but this price rise is too fast, if the downstream procurement plan batch is delayed, the price rise space may narrow. The current price of cobalt tetroxide in SMM this week is 18.5-190000 yuan / ton, an average price up 11000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Ternary precursor: the price of the precursor will rise this Wednesday. Cobalt salt prices continue to rise this week, downstream domestic power demand increases slightly, the price rise transmission speed is slow. The recent power market is mostly in the form of long orders, with reference to the monthly average price of raw materials before this week, the price increase is small. The quotation of precursor enterprises rose sharply, such as the price of 523 products rose nearly 10,000 yuan / ton, but it was difficult for the lower reaches to accept this increase, and there were few transactions in the market. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523) is 7.5-78000 yuan / ton this week, up 3750 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523 single crystal) is 7.7-80000 yuan / ton, which is 3750 yuan / ton higher than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 8.15-85500 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 3500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (811) is 9.45-100000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 3750 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Lithium carbonate: the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell slightly this week. Ternary demand has recovered, and some enterprises have reported that shipments have warmed up, but terminal car companies have a strong bargain, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is stable. The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is gradually stabilizing, and the market is mainly inquiring about the supply of goods at low prices, and the transaction increment is not obvious for the time being. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate is 3.9-40500 yuan / ton this week, down 250 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM industrial grade zero lithium carbonate is 3.3-37000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium hydroxide: lithium hydroxide prices are flat this week. Domestic demand for lithium hydroxide is less and transactions are sporadic. In the case of stable purchasing prices and limited market demand in the third quarter, the willingness to adjust prices upstream is low. The demand of industrial market is relatively stable, and there is no significant fluctuation in volume and price. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 4.7-52000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 4.2-45000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt rose this week. Upstream cobalt raw material price increases, gradually downward transmission, superimposed battery factory procurement hoarding increased, lithium cobalt price upward. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt is 19.5-200000 yuan / ton this week, up 4000 yuan / ton from last week.

Ternary materials: the price of ternary materials has gone up this week. The price of the upstream precursor continued to rise, but the downstream demand did not recover significantly, the downstream battery factory was more difficult to accept the price increase, and the price of ternary materials rose only slightly. There are too many long orders in the power market, and downstream battery enterprises predict the price increase of cobalt salt in advance, reminding material enterprises to purchase earlier, and the price increase is relatively small. The price of SMM ternary material (523) is 11.05-118500 yuan / ton this week, up 2000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622) is 13.05-139500 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton higher than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 811) is 14.95-162000 yuan per ton, with an average price increase of 2000 yuan per ton compared with last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged this week. The price of lithium salt remains unchanged this week, and orders in the downstream power market have increased, but it is more difficult to drive up the price of iron and lithium, and the price of iron and lithium remains unchanged. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 3.45-37000 yuan / ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 2.8-33000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate remains unchanged this week. This week, the price of industrial carbon remains unchanged, the downstream demand is relatively stable, it will take time for orders to resume in overseas markets, and the price of lithium manganate remains stable. The price of SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) is 2.10-28000 yuan per ton this week, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) is 3.3-35500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Negative materials: the prices of artificial graphite and natural graphite are the same this week. Raw material needle coke prices fell slightly, downstream power head enterprise orders have increased, raw material price changes have not been transmitted to the downstream, graphite prices are more difficult to rise unchanged. This week SMM artificial graphite (high-end) price is 7.5-80000 yuan / ton, SMM artificial graphite (middle-end) price is 650-70000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. SMM natural graphite (high-end) price is 50-60, 000 yuan / ton, SMM natural graphite (middle-end) price is 30-40, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Diaphragm: the price of diaphragm is flat this week. The installed capacity of power batteries continues to pick up, and the overseas market recovers in the second half of the year, and the demand for diaphragms is expected to increase. Digital 3C battery ushered in the procurement peak, the demand for wet base membrane increased, the impact of cost reduction, the price is more difficult to fluctuate. Diaphragm head enterprises continue to expand production capacity, technology improvement and cost reduction will be the core competitiveness in the future, and the market share of wet diaphragm coating will gradually increase. This week, the prices of SMM wet base membrane (5 μ m), SMM wet base membrane (7 μ m) and SMM wet base membrane (9 μ m) are 2.5-3.3 yuan / square meter, 1.8-2.2 yuan / square meter and 1.2-1.5 yuan / square meter, respectively, which are the same as last week. The price of SMM dry base film (16 μ m) is 0.9-1 yuan per square meter, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM wet coating base film (5 μ m + 2 μ m) is 3-3.8 yuan / square meter, the price of SMM wet coating base film (7 μ m + 2 μ m) is 2.2-2.6 yuan / square meter, and the price of SMM wet coating base film (9 μ m + 3 μ m) is 1.8-2.5 yuan / square meter, the average price is the same as last week.

Electrolyte: the price of electrolyte is flat this week. The demand of downstream power battery recovers slowly, the price of lithium salt is stable in the near future, and the market price of electrolyte remains stable with little fluctuation. This week, the price of SMM electrolyte (ternary power) is 3.5-45000 yuan / ton, SMM electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) is 3-35000 yuan / ton, SMM electrolyte (lithium cobalt) is 50-60,000 yuan / ton, SMM electrolyte (lithium manganate) is 1.5-25000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Future forecast: cobalt, cobalt raw materials at high prices push up the cost of cobalt salts, cobalt prices are higher this week, but the current downstream power demand has not improved significantly, do not rule out the possibility that the price increase of upstream raw materials is too large, causing downstream stock plan batch delay and so on. In terms of lithium, with the arrival of a large number of lithium carbonate in Hong Kong in August and the reduction of demand for purification, the rise in the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate gradually moderated. If the inventory of small and medium-sized salt lake enterprises flows to the market, the price may be reduced.

SMM battery materials research team

Qin Jingjing 021-51666828

Mei Wangqin 021-51666759

Huo Yuan 021-51666898