[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai lead gives up its rise and is afraid of heights downstream and wait and see.

2020.7.31

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Overnight, Lun lead opened at 1872.5 US dollars / ton. During the Asian session, Lun lead rose steadily at the beginning of the session, rising all the way to 1883.5 US dollars / ton, then stopped rising and stabilized, and entered the European market. Affected by the pessimistic market expectations of the US GDP in the third quarter, Lun lead fell as low as 1852 US dollars / ton. Later, with the release of the data, the market short sentiment eased, Lun lead low pulled up, near the closing stage, Lun lead consolidation shock. It finally closed at US $1869.5 / ton, down 0.45%. (bullish)

Overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15590 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead fluctuated, then fell to a low of 15525 yuan / ton. After hitting the bottom, due to long positions increasing positions rebounded to the highest level of 15680 yuan / ton, and finally reported at 15600 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.29%, giving up the daytime increase. (bullish)

Spot fundamentals:

Shanghai market Southern lead quotation for Shanghai lead 2008 contract 50 yuan / ton; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Muleng, Southern lead price price 50-70 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract; Minshan, Henan Province quotation for SMM1# lead price rising water 100 yuan / ton. Lead futures continued strong momentum, the holder price delivery, quotation flat to maintain stability, while the downstream fear of high wait-and-see, less inquiry, bulk market transaction activity decreased significantly. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. The mainstream quotation of electric waste batteries is 8400-8550 yuan / ton. The price of reduced lead rises slightly with the price of lead, the discount of recycled refined lead is maintained, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream.

Lead price forecast today:

Global epidemic control continues to be tense, the performance of Q2GDP in the United States is weak, and the overall non-ferrous metals are slightly back at high levels. Overnight Shanghai lead follows the trend of Lun lead, but as domestic fundamentals are expected to be strong, inventories continue to be removed this week, and short-term lead prices fluctuate at high levels.

SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat today.