Review on spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on July 30th

Copper: today, Apanlon copper opened at $6499 / tonne. After a brief struggle at the 6500 mark, short sellers pushed down the copper price to $6464 / tonne and then rebounded to more than $20 / tonne. In the afternoon, due to the rebound of the US dollar and the fall in crude oil prices, Lunchu accelerated its decline, and the market fluctuated downwards. As of 1700, Lunchu closed at 6414 US dollars per ton, down 62 US dollars per ton, or 0.96 per cent. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said on Wednesday that the surge in new cases in the United States and anti-epidemic restrictions have begun to drag on the economic recovery, while European economic data released today have heightened concerns about the uncertain prospects of the economic recovery. to limit the rebound in copper prices. The lacklustre demand comes at a time when OPEC+ members will increase production from August, and falling oil prices are also a drag on copper prices. Today, the copper is negative, and the KDJ is dilated downwards. In the evening, pay attention to the US second-quarter GDP data to test whether Lun Copper can repair the decline.

Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai opened at 52150 yuan / ton in the morning, which was the highest point in the day at the beginning of trading. After the opening, the short positions put pressure on the copper price, and the price quickly fell to 51810 yuan / ton. after a brief adjustment, the copper price fell again from 51940 yuan / position to about 200 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the center of gravity of copper prices rose somewhat, closing at 51890 yuan / ton at noon. At the beginning of afternoon trading, it was suppressed by short-sellers. Copper prices crossed the daily average line and went all the way down to explore the intraday low of 51600 yuan / ton. In late trading, it closed at 51690 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, or 0.15%. Today, the main daily position of Shanghai Copper increased by 2311 to 123000, mainly for short positions, and trading volume increased by 15000 to 152000. 08 during the contract day, positions were reduced by 7198 to 54000, mainly by long positions, while trading volume decreased by 4000 to 29000. In the early morning, the Fed FOMC meeting announced that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged in the range of 0% ul. 0.25%, and will continue to release liquidity easing policy. The tone of monetary policy easing remained unchanged, boosting investor confidence, but the Fed also reiterated that the outlook for the US economy would depend to a large extent on the development of the novel coronavirus epidemic. At present, novel coronavirus's confirmed cases around the world have broken through the 17 million mark, and the escalating novel coronavirus epidemic crisis has made investors look at the economic situation cautiously, thus putting some pressure on copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper negative, KDJ opening expansion, but the bottom is still supported by the 5-day, 10-day moving average, copper price callback space is limited. In the evening, waiting for the outer disk guidance, test Shanghai copper rose again to recover the decline.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai quoted a price of 20 to 90 yuan per ton for that month's contract, 51780 yuan / ton to 51880 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 51840 yuan / ton to 51940 yuan / ton for Shengshui copper. Shanghai copper concussion runs on the first line of 51800 yuan / ton. the morning market holder continued yesterday's market situation to open at 30-40 yuan / ton, good copper 80 yuan 90 yuan / ton, transaction response is not positive enough, under the difficulty of improvement, flat copper leading down to rising water 20 yuan / ton, during the period can be reduced to 10 yuan / ton, good copper source is relatively small, the holder suspended price adjustment, the quotation is stable, concentrated transaction in the rising water range of 80 yuan 90 yuan / ton, the price can be reduced to around 10 yuan / ton, the good copper source is relatively small, the holder suspends the price adjustment, the quotation is stable, and the transaction is concentrated in the rising water range of 80,000yuan / ton, during which the price can be reduced to around 10 yuan / ton. Downstream to maintain a rigid demand to buy, store depressed price space, wet discount expansion, quotation discount 70 ~ 50 yuan / ton. In the last two days of the month, the weak transaction has become a trend, and the holder takes the initiative to give way to the transaction, with obvious characteristics at the end of the month. In the afternoon, the market fell around 51700 yuan / ton. due to the factors at the end of the month, there was no rising water in the spot. Flat copper has risen 10-20 yuan / ton, while good copper has been deadlocked at 80-90 yuan / ton, and the transaction price has dropped slightly to 51720-51900 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opened at 1727 US dollars / ton in the morning, and reached a high of 1731.5 US dollars / ton in the Asian market. Entering the European trading session, the market trend was revised back due to the rebound performance of the US dollar. As of 1715 / 30, Lunal closed at $1720 / ton, while daily K temporarily closed at a shady line, down $7.50 / ton, or 0.43%. Trading volume decreased by 6493 to 2772, and positions decreased by 7668 to 786000, mainly by long positions. Lun aluminum continued to rise during the week, and today it was slightly sorted out. Under the support of the low US index, the support level of 1700 US dollars / ton is relatively strong at night, so it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of overseas macro news release on non-ferrous fluctuations in the external market. Shanghai Aluminum's main company 2009 contract opened at 14665 yuan / ton in the morning. After opening, the bulls strongly increased their positions by nearly 6, 000 yuan / ton, rising to 14805 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, a small number of short positions of Shanghai Aluminum tried to enter the market, and the long positions closed at the end of the day. The market fell back from the high level, closing at 14720 yuan / ton during the day, up 1.48% from the opening overnight. Trading volume increased by 35541 to 185000, and the position increased by 9353 to 133000. Mainly to bullish positions, the K-line closed a large positive line, which is above the main moving average group. Today, when the next month price difference is still firmly closed at 220 yuan / ton level, SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory although weekly accumulation of 10, 000 tons, but still in a low position of 712000 tons, and today SHFE warehouse orders continue to fall to 96600 tons, low inventory stack low warehouse orders make Shanghai aluminum have continuous upward momentum in recent months, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum is still dominated by high shocks in the evening, need to continue to pay attention to multi-short mentality and marginal changes in the spot market circulation. Concussion uplink.

In the spot market, the spot price of aluminum ingots in Shanghai and Wuxi is between 14980 and 15000 yuan / ton, and the absolute price is about 200 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday. The spot rising water is around 50 yuan / ton in the morning. With the rise of aluminum futures, the market demand weakens. The later period of spot rising water is concentrated in Pingshui-40 yuan / ton, which is 50-100 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. The spot price difference between the current month and next month in the market is about 10 yuan / ton. The price of imported aluminum ingots is between 14940 and 14960 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou is between 14990 and 15010 yuan / ton. Aluminum futures rose sharply today, the shipper is very active, and the willingness to preserve value has been restrained, the middleman is still dominated by long order replenishment, receiving goods is mediocre, and the market transaction after 11: 00 is also close to the flat spot price near Pingshui. A large family makes normal purchases today, but from the point of view of the procurement plan, it is relatively stable and begins to accept next month's ticket goods. Downstream on-demand stock-based, due to the sharp rise in prices, the willingness to buy goods was frustrated. The overall transaction in East China is poor today. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain a range of shocks, the holder quoted at 14990 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton on the disk around, only a small number of transactions between traders, there are few purchases downstream.

Lead: during the day, Lun lead opened at US $1872 / ton. During the Asian period, Lun lead was boosted by Shanghai lead and fluctuated upward away from the intraday moving average, reaching a high of US $1883 / ton several times, but the pressure line did not stand firm in the early stage of pressure. Affected by the rebound of the dollar index in the afternoon, the basic metals in the outer plate fell, and lun lead fluctuated downwards. as of 1615, it was temporarily reported at US $1869 / ton, down US $9 / ton, or 0.48%. Lun lead interim report long shadow, the upper pressure pre-pressure line 1886 U.S. dollars / ton, KDJ index opening expansion of the image shows signs of convergence, showing that the pressure above Lun lead is heavier in the short term, but Lun lead technical indicators still do not show signs of destruction, night attention to the actual annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the United States in the second quarter, Lun lead may be dominated by consolidation and guardian of the 5-day moving average.

During the day, the 2009 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 15595 yuan / ton. In early trading, bulls strongly increased positions, Shanghai lead uplink, under pressure of 15740 yuan / ton to give back part of the slight increase consolidation. Close to noon, the bulls again, Shanghai lead several times to explore 15780 yuan / ton did not stand firm. In the afternoon, under the influence of the general decline in basic metals, Shanghai lead fell back to a low of 15630 yuan / ton, and rose back in late trading on the support of the daily moving average, closing at 15710 yuan / ton, up 235 yuan / ton, or 1.52%. The position increased by 1273 to 24950, and the trading volume decreased by 6932 to 38314. Shanghai lead closed at Wulianyang, has broken through the previous pressure line and entered a new upward channel, and the center of gravity of the k line has moved upward, but the continuous upward power of Shanghai lead is lacking at the end of the month, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether the bulls can effectively break through 15800 yuan / ton at night.

The price of southern lead in Shanghai market is 15780 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract, 15780 yuan / ton for Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, 15780-15800 yuan / ton for southern lead contract, and 50-70 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract. Lead futures continued strong momentum, the holder price delivery, quotation flat to maintain stability, while the downstream fear of high wait-and-see, less inquiry, bulk market transaction activity decreased significantly.

Guangdong market Nanhua lead 15700 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price; 15750 yuan / ton for Minshan, Henan, 100 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price; 15700 yuan / ton for Hunan Shuikoushan, 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price (trader); Jiang Copper 15680 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead price In the south of Hechi, Guangxi, 15650 yuan / ton, the average network price is quoted at level water; the small factory in Yunnan is quoted at 15400 yuan, 15450 yuan / ton, and the average lead price of SMM1# is quoted at a discount of 250 yuan / ton. Lead prices accelerate upward, refinery bulk orders are still less, the market supply is more tight.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2301.5 / tonne. During the Asian session, Lunzin Zinc performed steadily, moving up to US $2310 / tonne in a narrow range. In the afternoon, the US index went higher and released pressure, coupled with the cooling of risk appetite. Len Zinc recorded a V-word reversal, reaching a low of US $2284 / ton and then rising back to US $2309 / tonne. Entering the European session, Lunzin's high level was difficult to hold steady and lost the US $2300 / tonne mark again. It fell near the daily moving average and closed down US $2291.5, or 0.46%, at US $2291.5 / ton as of 17VO1. With the Len Zinc inventory report showing a slight increase of 700t today, the declining trend of Len Zinc has slowed down. Although Lun Zinc is overcast today and the high pressure is obvious, the trend of short moving average bulls has not changed. At night, we will be concerned about whether Lun Zinc can return to the 2300 US dollars / ton mark.

During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18735 yuan / ton, and the bullish funds continued to buy the market at the beginning of the day. Zinc concussion rose to a new high of 18925 yuan / ton, close to the high of Wanjiu, and some of the funds stopped profit and left the market again. after the total increase of 18605 yuan / ton in the zinc recovery day was slightly repaired, it closed up at 18745 yuan / ton, up 370 yuan / ton, or 2.01%, and the trading volume increased by 12047 to 311000 hands. The position decreased by 1508 hands to 112000 hands. The technical breakthroughs have been initially consolidated, and we need to pay attention to whether zinc can stabilize the rising trend in the evening.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18820,18960 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18830,18970 yuan / ton; the price of zinc in Shanghai was 80,990 yuan / ton in August; the price of zinc in Shuangyan was 90,100 yuan / ton in August; and that of zinc in Shuangyan was 18750-18890 yuan / ton. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract continued the upward trend, the first trading session of the morning market closed at 18790 yuan / ton, the market volatility was higher, the market shipping sentiment was high, the spot water quotation in the morning market was stable, the transaction of ordinary zinc brands in the market was concentrated near the average price level of the SMM net, and the market quotation for 2008 contracts rose 100 yuan / ton in the morning, and then, as the price continued to rise, the holder lowered the rising water quotation to 90 yuan / ton, but the transaction was still relatively low. Entering the second period of time, the market further lowered the price of rising water, and the ordinary zinc brand of the holder lowered the price of ordinary zinc to 80,000,000 yuan / ton; zinc futures accelerated upward, the spot price was high, and the downstream was basically wait-and-see today, and the willingness of the consignor to ship goods increased. Today, the spot rising water fell slightly.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Gao was 18820-19040 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand was 10 yuan / ton compared with that of Shanghai yesterday, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand was 10 yuan / ton compared with that of ordinary brand in Shanghai, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai was 10 yuan / ton. Today, zinc prices fluctuated higher. In the first trading session, Tiefeng, Xikuang and Nanhua were trading around 100-110 yuan / ton for August contracts, Kirin 120-130 yuan / ton for August contracts, Huize newspaper around 150 yuan / ton for August contracts, Dongling newspaper around 160 yuan / ton for August contracts, and Harbin Zinc No. 1 for August water increases of about 40 yuan / ton. the strong zinc price market continued to be weak. Downstream enterprise orders did not improve, fear of heights and wait-and-see mood dominated, only rigid demand procurement contributed a small amount of transactions, today's Ningbo market turnover is no better than yesterday

The mainstream turnover of zinc in Guangdong is 18680-18870 yuan / ton, and the quotation is concentrated on a discount of 30-45 yuan / ton to the Shanghai zinc 2009 contract, and the discount in the Guangdong market is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day. The first trading session, zinc home high strong shock, downstream procurement demand is even worse, holders continue to lower rising water prices, it is still difficult to boost downstream transactions, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quotes for Shanghai zinc September contract discount 30-40 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the center of gravity of futures prices moved further upward, downstream demand still did not improve, traders were relatively positive in receiving goods at discounts, and most of the market transactions were contributed by traders. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer a discount of 40-45 yuan per ton for the September contract of Shanghai zinc. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize mainstream transactions at 18680-18870 yuan / ton.

The mainstream trading of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18980-19140 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 19080-19190 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 20320 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract was quoted around 180 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton, Zijin was quoted around 280,300 yuan / ton in August contract, and Tianjin stock market remained around 140yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Today, the price of zinc concussion in Shanghai is higher, and the spot market maintains the price of rising water. The price is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quotes 210 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, Hongyi quotes 250 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, Chi Hong quotes 180-200 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, the high-priced brand Zijin quotes 280-300 yuan / ton for the August contract, and Baiyin quotes 140 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) quoted 100 yuan / ton of water for the 08 contract, and Ha Zn (including the depot) quoted 120 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. Today, zinc prices fluctuated higher, the first period of time, the refinery downgrade water delivery, but less volume, refinery shipments after the end of the refinery, traders re-bid shipments, which due to Hongye Zijin brand maintenance reduction in August, the lower volume of rising water is higher; downstream, the spot price increase is larger, downstream enterprises wait-and-see mood is stronger, some enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement. On the whole, the deal was mediocre today. Zinc ingots traded around 18890-18980 yuan / ton.

Tin: the Lunxi electronic plate opened at 17985 US dollars / ton this morning. There was almost no trading in the morning. It fluctuated widely in the afternoon, touched 17990 US dollars / ton, and encountered resistance. At the same time, the rebound of the US dollar after the European market also put Lunxi under pressure. After exploring a low of 17900 US dollars, it rebounded slightly, narrowly arranged, with a volatility of less than 50 US dollars per tonne. As of 1730, the latest price of Lunxi was 17945 US dollars / ton, down 15 US dollars / ton, or 0.08%. The physical part is located on the 5-day moving average, and the lower support is expected to be near the 10-day moving average of 17700 US dollars / ton.

The Shanghai tin 2010 contract opened at 146720 yuan / ton last night, briefly fluctuated widely after opening, and then fluctuated downwards, hitting an intraday low of 146550 yuan / ton. It opened at 146850 yuan / ton in the morning, rose slightly and then fell back after opening, and then the bulls entered the market, fluctuated all the way up, touched the highest point of 148210 yuan / ton in the day, and went down under pressure in the afternoon. It closed sideways around 172200 yuan / ton before the end of the day, closing at 17280 yuan / ton, down 290 yuan / ton, down 0.20%, 58862 hands, 26444 positions, an increase of 608 hands, a positive line, and the physical part is above all moving averages. Shanghai tin has hit high levels frequently in recent days, so we need to be on guard against the risk of high callback; in addition, at the end of the month, with the return of funds and the superposition of the two factors, the rising pace of tin in Shanghai has slowed down, but the trend has not been destroyed, and the tin-daily moving average in Shanghai is still bullish. At the end of the month, test whether the 5-day moving average can support Shanghai tin to stabilize the price level of 146500 yuan / ton. The upper pressure level is expected to be around 148500 yuan / ton.

On the spot market, it is quoted at 145000-149000 yuan / ton today. The center of gravity of tin noodles in Shanghai was lower than yesterday morning, and the net price fell 1000 yuan / ton. Spot prices have fallen, smelter transactions have improved slightly, but prices are still high, downstream willingness to purchase has not fully recovered. The trading atmosphere in the Shanghai tin spot market is general, slightly better than yesterday. Liter discount, for Shanghai tin 2010 contract set near Yunxi Pingshui, Yunzi paste around 500yuan / ton, small card sticker is 2000-2500 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni sub-market opened at 13905 US dollars / ton today, first suppressed and then rose after opening, fell to 13840 US dollars / ton and then rebounded sharply. Lunni reached 13990 US dollars / ton and then adjusted horizontally until the end of the morning market. Dragged down by the precious metal diving in the afternoon, the center of gravity fluctuated widely around 13900 US dollars / ton after turning red and green. After entering the European trading session, the rebound of the US dollar caused Lenny to fall again and lower in a row. As of 1715, Lunni temporarily closed at US $13820, down US $13820 / ton, or 0.72%. Lunni hit 14000 US dollars / ton twice in the week and failed. In the evening, pay attention to the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits that week, EIA natural gas inventory and other data, beware of short positions to take advantage of the crackdown.

The main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2010 opened at 110800 yuan / ton today, and fell to 110100 yuan / ton after the opening. Then the bulls entered the market and increased their positions so that Shanghai Nickel continued to rise, reaching as high as 111950 yuan / ton. However, due to the strengthening of the US index at noon, the precious metals on the outer disk dived and fell one after another, so Shanghai Nickel opened empty and opened low in the afternoon and constantly gave up its rise. the center of gravity fell back to around 111000 yuan / ton and then stopped falling, wide concussion until the close. Shanghai Nickel finally closed at 111340 yuan / ton. Shanghai Nickel shot up and fell back, but still closed up 1800 yuan per ton, or 1.64%. Daily turnover was 933359 lots, and positions increased by 20399 lots to 155487 lots. Today recorded Zhongyang column, MACD red column continues to enlarge, the technical index is still more, the short-term is still to effectively break through 112000 yuan / ton as the goal. However, two times this week, Shanghai Nickel has been short selling pressure on this position, and today the US index shows signs of stopping falling and rebounding, waiting for the outer disk trend guidance in the evening to test whether Shanghai Nickel can consolidate at a high level.

Today's SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel reported 110800-111700 yuan / ton, today morning funds continued to push up nickel prices, the focus of the market returned to the highest point at the beginning of the week, while the spot market atmosphere remains light, nickel prices fell in the afternoon, but spot trading has not improved. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 09 contract quotation is still at a discount of 300 yuan / ton. Today, there are not only few downstream goods, but also few replacements among traders. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract rose 200,300 yuan / ton, only low water supply within the day there are few transactions. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is quoted at 111800 yuan / ton, and the smelter is willing to ship goods, and the ex-factory price is smaller than that of the current period. And a small amount of goods arrived in Shanghai, which sold out soon after the manufacturer offered the price. The supply of nickel beans in circulation is relatively scarce, and it is also difficult for inquiry traders to receive goods, which is still in a weak pattern of supply and demand. It is expected that the discount will gradually narrow to less than 1000 yuan.

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