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The gold has reached a new high! Us GDP shrank in the second quarter could be a record. The Federal Reserve promises to use all tools to support the economy. The dollar hit a more than two-year low.
Jul 30,2020 09:42CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: local time on July 29th, the Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25%, in line with market expectations. The Fed also reiterated that the outlook for the US economy will depend to a large extent on the development of the novel coronavirus epidemic.

On the same day, the Federal Reserve issued a statement after the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting, saying that in recent months, US economic activity and employment have rebounded after a sharp decline, but they are still far below the level at the beginning of the year. 'The Fed will keep interest rates ultra-low until it is convinced that the economy has weathered the crisis and is on track to achieve the two major goals of maximum employment and price stability, 'the statement said. At the same time, the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of information such as the epidemic and economic data on the economic outlook and is committed to using all tools and taking appropriate action to support the economy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said at a news conference on the same day that the outlook for the US economy is full of uncertainty and that the economic outlook will depend to a large extent on whether the epidemic can be successfully controlled. Us second-quarter GDP, announced on Thursday, will show the biggest decline on record. To support the economic recovery, the Fed is committed to using all credit and liquidity instruments. At the same time, fiscal policy is also crucial and will play an irreplaceable role.

The three major indexes of U. S. stocks rose after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. By Wednesday's close, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.6% at 26539.57, the s & p was up 1.3% at 3258.44, and the NASDAQ was up 1.4% at 10542.94.

The dollar index fell to a more than two-year low of 93.169 on Wednesday, and the Fed is expected to continue its ultra-loose monetary policy in the coming years.

International gold prices hit an intraday high of $1974.9 an ounce on Wednesday, setting a new all-time high before falling back. As of Wednesday's close, COMEX gold futures closed at $1953.4 an ounce, up 0.45%.

The Federal Reserve stood still, and the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two years.

On July 29, local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25%, in line with market expectations. The Fed also reiterated that the outlook for the US economy will depend to a large extent on the development of the novel coronavirus epidemic.

On the same day, the Federal Reserve issued a statement after the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting, saying that in recent months, US economic activity and employment have rebounded after a sharp decline, but they are still far below the level at the beginning of the year. At the same time, weak demand and a sharp fall in oil prices have curbed the rise in consumer prices. In the future, economic development will depend to a large extent on the development of the epidemic. The ongoing public health crisis will seriously affect economic activity, employment and inflation in the short term and pose considerable risks to economic prospects in the medium term.

'The Fed will keep interest rates ultra-low until it is convinced that the economy has weathered the crisis and is on track to achieve the two major goals of maximum employment and price stability, 'the statement said. At the same time, the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of information such as the epidemic and economic data on the economic outlook and is committed to using all tools and taking appropriate action to support the economy.

On the same day, the Federal Reserve also extended the temporary dollar liquidity swap agreement and the temporary repurchase agreement tool for foreign central banks and international monetary authorities until March 31, 2021. The two mechanisms were established in March this year to help ease the pressure on the global dollar financing market, thereby alleviating the impact of these pressures on household and corporate credit at home and abroad.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said at a news conference on the same day that the outlook for the US economy is full of uncertainty and that the economic outlook will depend to a large extent on whether the epidemic can be successfully controlled. The number of confirmed cases in novel coronavirus in the United States has increased in recent weeks, and new measures to control the spread of the epidemic have begun to put pressure on economic activity. The US second-quarter GDP, announced on Thursday, will show the biggest decline since records began. To support the economic recovery, the Fed is committed to using all credit and liquidity instruments. At the same time, fiscal policy is also crucial and will play an irreplaceable role.

After the Fed released the statement, according to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0.5% range in September was 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% was 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0.5% range in November was 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points was 0%, both of which were consistent with those before the announcement.

The three major indexes of U. S. stocks rose after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. By Wednesday's close, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.6% at 26539.57, the s & p was up 1.3% at 3258.44, and the NASDAQ was up 1.4% at 10542.94.

The dollar index fell to a more than two-year low of 93.169 after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, and the market expects the Fed to continue its ultra-loose monetary policy in the coming years.

International gold prices set new record highs

International gold prices rose to an all-time high of $1974.9 an ounce after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, before falling back. As of Wednesday's close, COMEX gold futures closed at $1953.4 an ounce, up 0.45%.

"low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy around the world will most likely continue under the circumstances that the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic has not obviously faded, which in itself creates relatively good conditions for the strengthening of precious metal prices. Superimposed recently, the control of the epidemic in the United States is obviously relatively poor, and Sino-US relations have been strained again. This series of factors have also significantly reduced the favor of the US dollar with safe-haven funds, and the price of precious metals has soared against this background. " Huatai Futures Precious Metals researcher Shi Orange believes that the current pullback of the precious metals plate should be a normal adjustment after a big rise, and there is no fundamental change in the factors that support the continued strength of precious metals.

With regard to the Fed's latest interest rate decision, Shi Orange said that it is necessary to focus on whether the Fed will have new measures for the use of open market tools. Considering that precious metal prices have already risen sharply, the increase may reflect the market's expectation that the Fed will continue to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary policy in its interest rate statement. and the expectation of looking for more targeted means to inject liquidity into the real economy, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate relatively limited after that, with a high probability of consolidation between $1920 / oz and $1970 / oz.

Looking to the future, Shi Orange believes that at present, there has been a relatively obvious repair in the specific price of gold and silver, and the current absolute price of silver is also in a lower position compared with gold, and the superposition of recent industrial products such as non-ferrous metals has also shown a trend of improvement. this may make silver have a more optimistic market expectation than gold.

"overall, the biggest potential risk to pay attention to in the future is whether the recovery in economic conditions will trigger market expectations of the need to adjust the current monetary policy under the stimulation of continued monetary easing. Precious metals may face a larger correction at that time." Shi Orange said that before the occurrence of the above risk points, the precious metal plate varieties still have relatively good prospects, and the international gold price is expected to reach 2200 Mel US $2300 / oz.

EIA crude oil inventories have fallen sharply, while most of the Nenghua sectors have risen.

Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) released the latest weekly data, showing that US crude oil inventories fell by 10.612 million b / d in the week ended July 24, the biggest drop since January 3, with an expected increase of 357000 b / d and a previous increase of 4.892 million b / d. Excluding the import of commercial crude oil from strategic reserves last week, it was down 795000 b / d from the previous week. Last week, crude oil exports increased by 218000 b / d to 3.211 million b / d; the four-week average supply of crude oil products was 18.337 million b / d, down 13% from the same period last year. After the release of the data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil changed little in the short term.

In the view of Yu Jiansen, a researcher at Zhaojin Futures Energy, the current oil market is not concerned about the short-term data performance, but the medium-and long-term trend. In terms of trend, OPEC+ will start to increase production from August 1, and the external argument is to reduce the scale of production restrictions. At present, the fundamentals of the oil market are extremely fragile. after entering the peak of oil consumption in the summer, crude oil production in the United States has increased, crude oil inventories have continued to be consolidated at a high level, and demand has continued to be depressed due to the impact of the second outbreak of the epidemic. " He thinks.

He further said that the recent decline in US crude oil inventories is mainly due to increased US crude oil exports and reduced crude oil imports, of which Saudi crude oil exports to the US have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. "after experiencing a sharp rise in the early stage, the crude oil futures market has basically digested the early enthusiasm, but new concerns have begun because of the current weak fundamentals." He said.

In the inner market, the domestic futures market closed yesterday, most of the Nenghua plate varieties rose, of which rubber 20 rose more than 2%, rubber and methanol rose more than 1%. During the night trading session last night, Nenghua plate continued to maintain its previous rising trend.

"after the recent continued weak oscillation, yesterday ushered in the double positive of the oil market in the stock market, the upward trend of the energy plate is the result of the comprehensive effect of many factors." Yu Jiansen believes that the most US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and the domestic stock market oscillated higher, driving the overall market atmosphere, and the performance of some commodities related to infrastructure and other industries was relatively strong.

"in the near future, various countries will publish intensive reports on their economic performance in the first half of the year. If the recovery is not as expected and there are signs of further deterioration, it cannot be ruled out that there will be another major retrogression in the global economy from August to September. Until each country launches a new round of stimulus and rescue policies." Yu Jiansen said that the impact of the Fed's interest rate decision on oil prices is mainly based on the future economic orientation of the United States, which needs to be taken into account.

A-shares have rebounded, and the futures index has become red across the board.

After several days of adjustment, the A-share market rebounded yesterday. As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3294.55 points, up 2.06%, with a turnover of 453.1 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Composite Index was at 13557.44 points, up 3.12%, with a turnover of 593.64 billion yuan; and the gem Index was at 2767.40 points, up 3.78%, with a turnover of 207.33 billion yuan. On the capital side, the data show that the main capital inflow in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets yesterday was 35.74 billion yuan, and the northward capital outflow for many consecutive days also resumed its net inflow yesterday, with a net inflow of 7.731 billion yuan.

Driven by the stock market, the three main contracts of stock index futures closed red yesterday, attracting a large number of market capital inflows. Specifically, IF2008, the main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures, closed up 3.47% at 4672.4 points; IH2008, the main contract of Shanghai 50 stock index futures, closed up 2.33% at 3244.0 points; and IC2008, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures, closed up 4.31% at 6501.4 points.

"investors need to keep an eye on the upcoming Politburo meeting, which will increase the probability that the bull market will end if it signals a tightening of monetary policy." Guangfa Futures Macro-Finance Research Group believes that in terms of operation, the current fear of heights and risk aversion coexist, and there is no rush to arrange the next stage. In terms of options, the stock index fell sharply last Friday. It is recommended that bulls stop short positions and wait and see. Market fluctuations are uncertain, and cautious investors can wait and see for the time being.

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