[SMM Analysis] demand driven by overseas economic restart and post-disaster reconstruction is expected to fluctuate and rise in zinc prices.

SMM7, March 28: Republicans in the US Senate recently unveiled a $1 trillion anti-epidemic stimulus plan, involving a series of bills to cut supplementary unemployment benefits, issue 1200 dollars in cheques to most Americans, and exempt businesses, schools and other organizations from lawsuits related to the epidemic.

Affected by the US economic stimulus package, boosted macro sentiment, non-ferrous metals generally have a strong trend. Among them, Shanghai Zinc 2009 contract rose to 18530 yuan / ton at one time, but as the US dollar rose somewhat in early trading, the metal fell across the board. Shanghai Zinc closed at 18080 yuan / ton by midday, an increase of 0%.

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On the supply side, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have rebounded at a low level. according to SMM research, as of July 24, the TC of domestic zinc concentrate was 5400 yuan / metal ton, rising 400 yuan / metal ton from the previous low, boosting the smelter's willingness to produce, and the current smelter raw material inventory level returned to normal, an average of about a month. Overall, the supply side is expected to increase.

On the consumer side, galvanizing supports the main consumption of zinc, terminal orders have improved, and follow-up attention is paid to the rush of consumption and the landing of infrastructure projects after the rainy season. On the other hand, consumption is still not improving in some areas affected by the flood. However, demand is expected to be driven by post-disaster reconstruction in the future. As overseas countries restart their economies one after another, orders for die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide in Southeast Asia have improved, leading to a pick-up in the operating rate of the plate.

SMM believes that from a fundamental point of view, with the gradual restart of overseas economies and the superimposition of relevant national policies to stimulate infrastructure development, zinc consumption will gradually resume and future consumption can be expected, but supply-side increments restrain the rise in zinc prices, and zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend.