Today, the overall trend of copper in Shanghai is stable, and the macro aspect is still dragged down by tensions between China and the United States. Geopolitical risks have led to a continuous rebound in market risk aversion and pressure on copper prices, but the macroeconomic environment continues to improve. Manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States rose above the boom-bust line in July, and Shanghai copper was boosted by positive factors of sustained economic improvement. From a fundamental point of view, the mine-side supply problems caused by the South American epidemic still exist. Customs data show that Peruvian copper concentrate imports fell 28.75% in June from a year earlier, and short-term tight mine supply also supported high copper prices.
A brief comment on SMM
Today, the overall trend of copper in Shanghai is stable, and the macro aspect is still dragged down by tensions between China and the United States. geopolitical risks have led to a continuous rebound in market risk aversion and pressure on copper prices, but the macroeconomic environment continues to improve. Manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States rose above the boom-bust line in July, and Shanghai copper was boosted by positive factors of sustained economic improvement. From a fundamental point of view, the mine-side supply problems caused by the South American epidemic still exist. Customs data show that Peruvian copper concentrate imports fell 28.75% in June from a year earlier, and short-term tight mine supply also supported high copper prices. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 51640 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the bulls increased their positions to pull the short-term rise in copper prices, but there was not enough energy to push up, and the disk fell to 51490 yuan / ton. After exploring the low copper price, it rebounded slightly and arranged horizontally around 51600 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper rose somewhat, crossed the daily moving average and climbed the intraday high of 51870 yuan / ton, closing at 51720 yuan / ton at noon. In the afternoon, copper prices fell below the daily average, the center of gravity stabilized at 51630 yuan / ton, and closed at 51600 yuan / ton in late trading, down 200 yuan / ton, or 0.39%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper reduced its positions by 164lots to 113000 hands, mainly for short positions, and the trading volume decreased by 47000 lots to 152000 hands. 08 during the contract day, positions were reduced by 2903 to 69000, mainly by short positions, while trading volume decreased by 24000 to 49000.
Today, Shanghai copper closed the sun, the upper pressure 5 days, 10 days moving average, in the evening waiting for the outer disk guidelines, test whether Shanghai copper can go up again.
Spot market
Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai quoted a price of 30 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton for that month's contract, 51620 yuan / ton to 51780 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 51660 yuan / ton to 51820 yuan / ton for Shengshui copper. The pressure of copper in Shanghai is 52000 yuan / ton along the first line of 51700 yuan / ton. today, the market focus is around the bills of the current month and next month. The holders of monthly tickets are slow in their willingness to raise prices. They hold the opening price of the monthly tickets and quote a price of 600.70 yuan / ton for copper in flat water, and about 100yuan / ton for good copper. It is difficult to make a deal, the market demand for bills weakens, the price quoted by the holders is lowered, and the good copper is concentrated around 80,000yuan / ton. Leveling copper is mostly around 40 yuan / ton-60 yuan / ton. However, there is a big difference in invoice performance next month, and most of the holders have transferred to next month's ticket quotations, which are concentrated on Pingshui copper 30 yuan 40 yuan / ton, good copper water 60 yuan 70 yuan / ton, and wet copper quotation around 50 yuan / ton. This month's long order has come to an end, when the monthly ticket gradually withdrew from the mainstream stage, most of today's transactions revolve around the demand for next month's ticket, and the transaction activity of next month's invoice occupies the mainstream. Today, the lower reaches of the market to maintain rigid demand, still give priority to wait-and-see, market trading is dominated by trade speculators.
Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province quoted a discount of 30-50 per month for the contract, with an average price of 20 yuan / ton, while wet copper quoted a discount of 80-70 per ton, with an average price of 40 yuan per ton. The average price of electrolytic copper is 51630 yuan / ton, while that of wet copper is 51555 yuan / ton. Spot market: stocks in Guangdong soared by more than 5, 000 tons over the weekend, with total inventories rising to 37000 tons, the highest since May 7. With the recent weak consumption in Guangdong, the operating rate of many copper rod factories has dropped sharply compared with the previous period, coupled with a marked increase in the arrival of imported copper and domestic copper, resulting in a drop in spot water pressure in Guangdong. Today, the desire to receive goods downstream is still in the doldrums, and the holders can only keep lowering the rising water for shipment, but the effect is still not good. By around 11:00, flat copper has been quoted at a discount of 40 yuan 50 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than in the early trading. The wet method has also dropped to 70 amp 80 yuan / ton, while good copper remains at a high level, that is, 40 yuan 50 yuan / ton, due to tight supply. We believe that there is still room for rising water to fall in the near future, and before consumption recovers obviously, Guangdong rising water will remain at a low level and it will be difficult for it to rise significantly.
Yangshan copper
Today's warehouse receipt quotation is 88-98 US dollars / ton, the average price is the same as last Friday; the bill of lading quotation is 73-85 US dollars / ton, the average price is the same as last Friday, QP August. The LME0-3 litre water is US $15.25 / ton, and the import loss is around 350RMB / ton.
The trading performance of the foreign trade market was still lacklustre on Monday morning. The range of import loss is still more than 300 yuan, the demand in the foreign trade market is very light, and there are few enquiries. In terms of quotation, at present, the price of the second brand bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong in early August is about US $88 / ton, and the mainstream fire bill of lading is generally quoted below US $85 / ton, but due to the lack of firm offer, the price remains unchanged for the time being. The offer quantity of the far-monthly bill of lading is limited, and most of the previous quotations are maintained. The buyer will continue to wait and see in the face of the current quotation because there is still room for downside in the expected premium. The warehouse receipt offer also declined slightly, but the transaction was not heard of.
At present, the transaction price of good copper warehouse receipt is around 98 US dollars / ton, 94 US dollars / ton by mainstream fire method, 88 yuan / ton by wet method, 85 US dollars / ton by good copper bill of lading, 80 US dollars / ton by mainstream fire method and 73 US dollars / ton by wet method.
Inventory
LME copper stocks today were 138025 tonnes, down 3700 tonnes, or 2.61 per cent, from the previous day.
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