SMM: over the past 12 months, Sino-US trade tensions and the unprecedented novel coronavirus epidemic have caused huge fluctuations in the market. After a breakthrough in the Sino-US trade agreement in January, global markets began to be cautiously optimistic about 2020. But in March 2020, global stock markets experienced one of the worst quarters in a decade on fears of a sharp economic downturn caused by the novel coronavirus epidemic.
The Fed held a policy meeting on June 10 and decided to keep interest rates near zero while continuing to buy assets, suggesting a slow recovery from the recession triggered by the epidemic. In addition, renewed concerns about the second wave of the novel coronavirus outbreak in Beijing, Germany, Australia and Japan, coupled with the continued surge in the number of infections in the US, have raised doubts about the nascent recovery trend.
But central banks around the world are still sparing no effort in launching stimulus measures to stem further deterioration in the economy, with a series of measures preventing markets from falling further. Another big fact that shows the glimmer of hope is that the proportion of novel coronavirus cases in the tested cases in the United States has stabilized or even declined. In the context of the gradual reopening of economic activity in June, the success of the United States in fending off the second wave of infection is mainly concerned with the mortality indicator, which continues to decline.
The trading volume of US dollar / offshore RMB futures on the SGX returned to normal, with turnover rising 18 per cent in June from a month earlier to nearly $85.2 billion (851753 lots), accounting for about 83 per cent of the global market share. At the end of June, the outstanding contract volume of SGX dollar / offshore RMB futures fell 10.5% from the previous month to US $6.49 billion (64860 contracts). Since the beginning of the year, the turnover of US dollar / offshore RMB futures on the SGX has exceeded 531 billion US dollars, up 25 per cent from the same period last year.
The slightly optimistic factor is that although India's terms of trade index has recently fallen with the rebound in oil prices, it is still at a relatively favorable level compared with 2017-2019. In addition, trade data appear to have improved, but mainly due to a contraction in imports caused by reduced demand during the blockade period.
The Reserve Bank of India has cut borrowing costs by 115 basis points this year and promised more support in the form of monetary easing if necessary. The lack of inflationary pressures also reinforces the view that the central bank will use all monetary leverage to try to achieve a V-shaped recovery.
The Indian rupee has fluctuated in a range over the past month, reflecting that trading volumes have remained fairly stable. Trading volume of Indian rupee / dollar futures on the SGX was close to 1.28 million lots (up 3.3 per cent from the previous month), with a turnover of US $33.7 billion (up 3.1 per cent from the previous month). Although the number of open contracts fell 43.2 per cent at the end of the month, SGX still maintains the world's largest market share in India's rupee / dollar futures market. Since the beginning of the year, the turnover of Indian rupee / dollar futures on the Singapore Exchange has exceeded 216 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 22% over the same period last year.
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