SMM net: July 23, domestic silver futures closed up 7.91%, not only led the rise in domestic commodities for three consecutive days, but also rose by a staggering 17.4% in three trading days. at the same time, domestic gold futures rose 3% in three days, and silver continued to outperform gold. From an investment point of view, this round of silver skyrocketing is the first to start strong in the outer disk, and the strength of domestic silver futures is more likely to be repaired in the case of excessive internal and external differences. prior to the lag of the internal market and the limit, the domestic silver futures contract on the 22nd was not strong enough compared with the outer disk. On the 23rd, the price difference was slightly repaired, and there is still room for further growth in the future. It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the performance of domestic silver is significantly weaker than that of the outer disk, and the future is expected to gradually repair the gap between inside and outside at the same time. Data show that as of press time, the annual cumulative increases of COMEX silver and SHFE silver futures reached 27.77% and 20.54% respectively, while the internal and external spread (SHFE-COMEX) of silver futures fell to-516 yuan / kg at the close of trading on the 22nd and returned to-340 yuan / kg at noon on the 23rd. It is expected that there is still room for repair of the internal and external price gap of about 150 yuan / kg in the future, and there is still a gap of about 3 percentage points. To return to the average level of about-190 yuan / kg in the past three months. From the perspective of the internal and external gold and silver ratio, in the past three years, the average gold and silver ratio of the outer disk and the inner plate is 86 and 79 respectively, showing the characteristics of low inside and high outside, but after a sharp rise on the 22nd, the current gold-silver ratio of the outer disk and the inner plate has been restored to 81 and 77, and it is expected that the domestic gold and silver futures ratio will be repaired downwards in the future. With reference to the 2008-2011 bull market in precious metals, after inflation expectations warmed up and returned to the normal level around 60, the lowest gold / silver ratio dropped to a historical low of 33. At present, the gold / silver ratio on the outer disk has returned to the normal fluctuation range of 70LV / 80 in the last three years, and according to historical estimates, the gold / silver ratio still has a lot of room to decline. The special feature is that driven by the disturbance on the supply side and the warming demand of the photovoltaic and electronic equipment industry, silver may be significantly stronger than gold in the short term. From the point of view of the core price drivers, we are still optimistic about the long-term upward trend of gold and silver. Tensions between China and the United States have intensified in many ways, the US election is approaching, and geopolitical risk factors have been highlighted. And the epidemic situation in the United States is still grim and continues to cause concern, and risk aversion in the market is high. Inflation expectations in the United States rebounded, interest rates on 10-year Treasuries were low and continued to decline, and real interest rates were deeply negative. As of July 21, the interest rate on US 10-year Treasuries fell to 0.61%. The 10-year real interest rate hit a new all-time low of-0.87%. 10-year inflation expectations rose to 1.48%. Continued weakness in the dollar index supports gold and silver prices at high levels. In terms of arbitrage, focus on the difference in the ratio of gold and silver inside and outside the market, and continue to be optimistic about the downward repair of gold and silver ratio in the short term.
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