[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Shanghai lead stops falling and the supply of recycled lead is tight.

2020.7.23

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Overnight, Lun lead opened at 1843.5 US dollars / ton. In Asian time, Lun lead fluctuated downward along the daily moving average, entering the European period. Lun lead was generally supported by 1810 US dollars / ton along the 20-day moving average. During this period, it reached a low of 1794.5 US dollars / tonne. Short positions were reduced, and Lun lead finally closed at 1814 US dollars / ton, down 1.49 per cent. As of yesterday, LME lead stocks rose 12850 tonnes to 86925 tonnes. (bullish)

Overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 14945 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead fell rapidly, reaching a low of 14765 yuan / ton, and then basically fluctuated along the 20-day moving average, finally trading at 14830 yuan / ton, down 1.49 percent. (bullish)

Spot fundamentals:

The price of Mulun lead in Shanghai market is 50 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2008 contract, 50 yuan / ton for Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, Yuteng and Southern lead for Shanghai lead 2008 contract, 50 yuan / ton for imported KZ lead 2008 contract, and 20 yuan / ton for Henan Jinli and Wanyang lead to SMM1# lead (traders). Lead shot up and fell back, and the price quoted by the holder dropped slightly. Recycled lead, waste batteries due to tight supply, smelter procurement demand is strong, prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. The price of reduced lead rises as the price of lead rises, the discount of recycled refined lead shrinks, the average price of SMM1# lead discounts 100,200 yuan / ton out of the factory, the recycled refinery presses more goods to rise, and the downstream just needs to be returned to the primary lead, and the market transaction activity is OK.

Lead price forecast today:

Lun lead reported to close the negative line, give up this week's gains, short-term focus on the support strength of the 20-day moving average. Shanghai lead pulls back to near the 20-day moving average, showing a trend of turning short, focusing on the impact of macro-Sino-US trade disputes.

It is expected that the price of lead in SMM1# will drop by 150 million yuan per ton today.