SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes on July 22nd: basic metals rose across the board yesterday. Lomalco closed at $1699 a tonne yesterday, down 2.23 per cent, up $37 per tonne, while Shanghai Aluminium's main 2008 contract rose Rmb150,150, or 1.05 per cent. The dollar index fell 0.64 per cent to 95.186.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of July 22, 2020, there were 14835470 confirmed cases and 613710 deaths worldwide. Among them, there were 3884988 confirmed cases and 141817 deaths in the United States. (bearish) 2) the Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday that there was a budget deficit of 35.5 billion pounds in June, bringing borrowing to a record 127.9 billion pounds in the first three months of the fiscal year, and the debt / GDP ratio reached 99.6 percent, the highest since 1961. Jia Xing, vice president and secretary general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, pointed out on the 21st that China's non-ferrous metals industry showed a trend of bottoming out and recovery in the first half of this year, and is expected to maintain a trend of recovery in the second half of this year. In the first half of the year, the added value of China's non-ferrous metals industry fell 4.1 per cent from the same period last year to 0.7 per cent year-on-year growth, returning to positive growth; the output of non-ferrous metals was 29.282 million tons, up 2.9 per cent from the same period (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) Bureau of Statistics: in June 2020, the national aluminum output was 5.565 million tons, with a cumulative output of 26.458 million tons, an increase of 20.70% over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 7.80%. In June 2020, the national output of aluminum alloy was 822000 tons, with a cumulative output of 4.144 million tons, an increase of 11.80 percent over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 1.00 percent. In June 2020, China produced 3.015 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, with a cumulative output of 17.889 million tons, an increase of 0.80 percent over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 1.70 percent. (negative) 2) Alumina: in the spot market, electrolytic aluminum mills and traders are in a wait-and-see mood to the previous sharp rise in aluminum prices and rapidly rising alumina quotations, and some holding traders have lowered their quotations, but the actual transaction size of the market is very limited. In the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the changes of downstream purchasing intention, and in the long run, we need to pay attention to the marginal changes in (neutral) 3) according to the data of the Federation of passengers, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year were 7.667 million, down 22.9% from the same period last year, and the retail sales were 7.709 million, down 22.5% from the same period last year. The passenger car market is expected to decline by 11% in 2020 compared with the same period last year. (bullish)
Yesterday, the spot price of aluminum ingots in Wuxi area was 14400mur14420 yuan / ton, and that in Shanghai area was 14390mur14410 yuan / ton, which was 90 yuan / ton lower than the absolute price of the previous day. The spot water price in the market was around 180mur200 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, and the price in Hangzhou area was between 14420 and 14440 yuan / ton. Due to the increase in arrival and weaker consumption, the supply of goods in the East China market yesterday was obviously more relaxed than that of the previous day, and the shippers were more active, with more brands quoted, but under the background that the procurement plan of a large household was less than 10,000 tons, the middleman's willingness to receive goods was relatively mediocre, and the trading between the two sides was flat, and the heat of transaction dropped obviously after 11:00. Downstream on-demand delivery, some traders feedback, because yesterday's prices are lower than yesterday, stack the day before the replenishment is not much, the purchase volume increased yesterday. This morning, spot transactions focused on rising water around 150 yuan / ton in the same month.
Summary: in the macro aspect, under the background of continuing to implement positive and prudent fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic recovery, the domestic non-ferrous metals industry has ushered in a good trend. From a fundamental point of view, the output of aluminum, aluminum alloy and other downstream branch products in the electrolytic aluminum industry chain in June ushered in a large increase. The downstream demand is OK. The supply of electrolytic aluminum in society has eased slightly recently, and warehouse receipt inventory is still low. On the whole, the price of electrolytic aluminum is still supported by fundamentals, and it is expected that the trend of aluminum price will still be strong in the short term in the future.
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