SMM Morning Comments (Jul 21): Shanghai base metals steadied with investor sentiment supported by positive vaccine news

Published: Jul 21, 2020 09:46 (GMT+8)
In overnight trading, metals moved higher for the most part. Zinc crept up 1.1% in overnight trading, lead rose 0.9%, tin climbed 0.8%, copper advanced 0.6% while aluminium stayed flat. Nickel edged down 0.1%.

SHANGHAI, Jul 21 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals were steady on Tuesday morning, holding onto overnight gains, as investor sentiment was supported by a slew of positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front.

 

In overnight trading, metals moved higher for the most part. Zinc crept up 1.1% in overnight trading, lead rose 0.9%, tin climbed 0.8%, copper advanced 0.6% while aluminium stayed flat. Nickel edged down 0.1%.

 

On the LME, nonferrous metals were also mostly higher, building on the previous session's bounce. On Monday, LME lead advanced 0.9% to lead the gains, zinc climbed 0.8%, tin and copper rose 0.6% and nickel gained 0.5%, while aluminium bucked the trend with a paltry 0.03% dip. 

 

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of its peers, slipped to its weakest in more than four months at 95.605 in the morning of Asian trading hours on Tuesday, while oil prices climbed.

 

Copper: Three-month LME copper advanced 0.58% to $6,474.5/mt on Monday, after hitting an intraday high of 6,522.5 earlier in the session. It is expected to trade between $6,470-6,530/mt today.

The most-active SHFE September contract climbed to a session-high of 52,310 yuan/mt in overnight trading, before easing to end 0.55% higher at 51,650. It is likely to move at 51,800-52,200 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are seen firm at 60-120 yuan/mt as traders need to fulfill their long-term contracts.

Supply concerns and capital inflows are likely to continue to provide traction to copper prices in the near term.

 

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium closed little changed at $1,662.5/mt on Monday in choppy trading. It is likely to move at $1,650-1,690/mt today.

The most-active SHFE August contract reversed earlier gains to end flat at 14,240 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Recovering demand, low social inventories and high spot premiums remain supportive to SHFE aluminium, with the August contract expected to trade at 14,000-14,400 yuan/mt today.

 

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc rallied after plummeting to its lowest in more than a week at $2,162/mt, and finished the day 0.78% higher at 2,198.5. Data showed that zinc stocks across LME warehouses continued their moderate decline on Monday, dipping 0.57%, or 700 mt to 121,700 mt. LME zinc is expected to trade between $2,170-2,220/mt today.

The most-traded SHFE September contract followed its LME counterpart higher to a session-high of 17,960 yuan/mt in overnight trading, before the entry of shorts forced it to give up some gains to end 1.08% higher at 17,815. The September contract is expected to move at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen at 110-120 yuan/mt over the August contract.

 

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel boomeranged on Monday, climbing from a one-week low of $13,070/mt to an intraday high of 13,350 before relinquishing some gains to end 0.53% higher at 13,185. Whether it could shrug off resistance at the 10-day moving average will come under scrutiny.

The most-active SHFE October contract plunged after hitting a session-high of 106,720 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and closed 0.12% lower at 105,500. It still resides around the 20-day moving average, and is likely to hover at 105,000-107,000 today.

 

Lead: Three-month LME lead slipped to a two-week trough of $1,804/mt on Monday before rebounding to finish the day 0.85% firmer at 1,829. It is likely to remain rangebound in the short term.

The most-active SHFE September contract strengthened 0.85% to end at 14,885 yuan/mt in overnight trading. The onset of a high season is likely to push SHFE lead higher.

 

Tin: Three-month LME tin rose to a one-week high of $17,410/mt on Monday before erasing some gains to close 0.64% firmer at 17,375. Support is seen at the five-day moving average, while pressure is at 17,450.

The most-liquid SHFE September contract strengthened 0.78% to end at 141,690 yuan/mt in overnight trading, after hitting a session-high of 142,060 earlier in the session as longs piled into the market. It has shrug off a resistance confluence of the five- and 10-day moving averages, and now faces pressure at 143,000.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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