A brief comment on SMM

Copper closed negative in Shanghai today, the one-year lending rate announced by the central bank remained unchanged at 3.85%, the tone of monetary policy easing remained unchanged, and investors remained cautiously optimistic. However, market worries about the continuing grim state of the new crown epidemic plaguing the economic recovery still exist. At present, the global new crown confirmed cases have broken through the 14 million mark, while the epidemic has not yet ended and tensions between China and the United States continue to ferment. Market expectations for the prospects of economic recovery have been suppressed, putting pressure on copper prices. Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai opened at 51390 yuan / ton in the morning and fell rapidly after the opening, with a daily low of 51120 yuan / ton. After that, along with the bulls increasing positions one after another, copper prices fluctuated upward, and in the afternoon, the bulls entered the market to pull up the copper price to the highest point of the day, 51450 yuan / ton, but the promotion energy was limited, the disk declined slowly, and near the end of the day, the bulls reduced their holdings and left the market. Copper prices finally closed at 51270 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton, down 0.23%. During the day, 09 contracts reduced positions by 294 to 112000, mainly by long positions, while trading volume decreased by 29000 to 87000. 08 the contract day reduced positions by 4203 to 88000, mainly by long positions, while trading volume decreased by 31000 to 109000.

Today, Shanghai copper negative, KDJ opening continues to expand, the upper pressure 5-day moving average, waiting for the outer disk guidelines at night, test whether the bulls can defend the 10-day moving average.

Spot market

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai quoted a price of 50 to 110 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, 51300 yuan / ton to 51400 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 51350 yuan / ton to 51450 yuan / ton for Shengshui copper. Shanghai copper continues to consolidate in the 5-10 moving average range, mostly in the 51250 / ton range of 51350 yuan / ton. In the morning market, the holder quoted a price stable at 50 RMB60 / ton for copper rising water in Pingshui, while good copper rose as high as 120 yuan / ton for rising water, and the transaction of flat copper remained active. For a short time, some brands, such as Dajiang small board, could lower the price to 40 yuan / ton, while in the second trading session, it was difficult to find flat copper with a rising water of 50 yuan / ton, and some consignors raised the price to 70 yuan / ton, but the transaction was significantly suppressed. The price difference of good copper is unique. Due to well-known reasons, ENM's quotation is almost close to flat copper, the domestic good copper market is hard to find, and the sole deposit-P is as high as 100 RMB110 / ton, which makes traders who receive good copper in a dilemma. The quotation of wet copper followed up at the discount of about 30 yuan / ton. The downstream is just needed, and the transaction continues to improve slightly. This week entered the long single delivery cycle, and the copper is in a correction period, the holder intends to rise the water, rising water is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the market transaction will also be significantly improved.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province rose 50 per ton to the contract for that month, with an average price increase of 5 yuan per ton, while wet copper reported flat water of 10 yuan per ton, with an average price increase of 10 yuan per ton. The average price of electrolytic copper is 51370 yuan / ton, while that of wet copper is 51305 yuan / ton. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to increase after returning to Guangdong at the weekend. After more than a week of accumulation, Guangdong inventory has approached the 30,000 mark, returning to the level of mid-May. Affected by the increase in inventories and a slight drop in prices, Shengshui in Guangdong rose slightly today compared with last Friday. The mainstream transaction price of good copper was 90 yuan / ton, that of flat copper was 50 yuan / ton, and that of wet copper was 0 yuan / ton. Overall, although copper prices fell slightly today, but the downstream procurement desire is low, transactions are mainly concentrated between traders. We believe that unless there is a further decline in prices, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, only to maintain on-demand procurement, there is still the possibility of continuing to accumulate reserves in the future.

Yangshan copper

Today's warehouse receipt quotation is $92m / ton, the average price is $1 / ton lower than last Friday, and the bill of lading price is $80m / ton, which is $1.50 / ton lower than last Friday, QP August. LME0-3 rising water is 8 US dollars / ton, and the import loss is around 350 yuan / ton.

July 20,2020: today's warehouse receipt quotation is $92mur104 / ton, the average price is $1 / ton lower than last Friday; the bill of lading quotation is $80mur92 / ton, the average price is $1.50 / ton lower than last Friday, QP August. LME0-3 rising water is 8 US dollars / ton, and the import loss is around 350 yuan / ton. On Monday, the import price weakened obviously, the loss widened to more than 300 yuan / ton, and both buyers and sellers performed poorly. The number of enquiries can be seen reduced, traders are not active in quotations, most said to maintain a wait-and-see state, waiting for the price to pick up. Early morning inquiry found that the price of the second brand bill of lading for arrival in Hong Kong at the end of July and early August ranges from US $95 to US $98 per ton, and the price of the wet bill of lading is above US $80 per ton, but there is little counter-offer, and the buyer is cautious and not willing to accept the goods, so the transaction is also very difficult. The quantity of unilateral offer in the warehouse is limited, and the price is relatively strong, but the transaction has not been heard of.

At present, the transaction price of fire good copper warehouse receipt is around US $104 / ton, mainstream fire method is US $98 / ton, wet method is 92 yuan / ton, good copper bill of lading is US $92 / ton, mainstream fire bill of lading is US $88 / ton, and wet method is US $80 / ton.

Inventory

LME copper stocks today were 151075 tonnes, down 6275 tonnes, or 3.99 per cent, from the previous day.

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