[SMM analysis] leaving the warehouse to maintain the inventory of high aluminum bars does not increase but decrease.

SMM, July 17:

This week, aluminum bar inventory decreased by 7200 tons to 65000 compared with last Thursday, of which inventory in Foshan, Wuxi and Nanchang decreased slightly, inventory in Changzhou increased slightly, and inventory in Huzhou remained flat. In July, the arrival of aluminum bars in the warehouse in May was relatively small, and the first two weeks left the warehouse at a relatively high level.

During the week, due to the sharp rise in base prices in East China, the processing fees in Wuxi region fell sharply, the price center of gravity fell below 300 yuan / ton, and the selling low price of some holders was close to 200 yuan / ton; processing fees in Nanchang rebounded from the previous low, and the price level was basically the same as that in Wuxi, with the center of gravity of processing fees at about 300 yuan / ton. Foshan, as the main consumer area of aluminum bars, the current inventory of aluminum bars is the lowest in the same period of nearly four years. Recently, due to the continuous upside down of spot aluminum prices in Guangdong and Shanghai, the number of northern aluminum bars moving south has decreased, and more aluminum bars have been sent to East and Central China, resulting in a sharp reduction of nearly 10,000 tons of aluminum bars in the warehouse. At the beginning of the week, the base price was high, the downstream wait-and-see was mainly, the inquiry was less and the goods were received less, and it was difficult for traders to adjust the price for delivery. After the aluminum price fell sharply on Thursday / Friday, the downstream weekend replenishment demand and traders' low-price purchasing and hoarding increased, the holder also actively adjusted the price for shipment, and the center of gravity of processing fees also returned to around 400 yuan / ton.

From the overall trading situation of the market during the week, due to the impact of the summer off-season, demand is slightly weaker, downstream now more orders just need to purchase. Therefore, there may be a certain decline in the release of aluminum bars from the warehouse this week, and the inventory of aluminum bars is expected to accumulate slightly next week.

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