[SMM analysis] the seasonal recovery of zinc mines is still large compared with the same period last year.

SMM7 March 17:

According to the (SMM) survey of Shanghai Nonferrous Network, the output of SMM zinc concentrate in June was 301900 tons, up 3.4% from the previous month, down 13.1% from the same period last year; the operating rate was 66%, up 2.1% from the previous month, down 10% from the same period last year.

Mine smelting facilities are distributed in domestic areas. In recent years, mines with potential for increasing zinc ore production are mainly distributed in the northern region. From the point of view of supporting production capacity, there is a certain level of mismatch in ore smelting in Inner Mongolia. After the ignition of Zijin in Xinjiang on June 30, it can indirectly share some of the ore supply pressure in Inner Mongolia, and the Xinjiang Zijin smelter will be directly supplied by local group mines. Then the zinc ore in Xinjiang will no longer be transferred to Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu and other places, then this part of the demand may be transferred to Sichuan, Inner Mongolia and other areas rich in zinc ore resources, forming a balance of domestic mining and smelting.

In June, with the further rebound of zinc prices and the low processing fees, the profit level of the mine was compensated to more than 1000 yuan / ton, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises increased, and some of the mines that stopped production due to the reduction of profit level began to resume production in June. It is expected that part of the increase will be made in the next 1-2 months. While in production mines at the same time in order to achieve the annual profit target, enterprises try to increase production in some large-scale mines, and also contribute part of the increment. At the same time, with the attack of midsummer, there is room for further recovery of mineral production in the high latitudes of the north, and the output of some mines in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Liaoning and other places have further rebounded.

However, at present, the flood weather in the south has hindered the production of some mines, hindered the mining and separation process to a certain extent, affected the output and the rhythm of resuming production, and made it difficult for zinc ore production to return to the highest level in the third quarter. At the same time, a mine in Hunan has no output in July, while a mine in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia will contribute to a certain reduction due to small-scale maintenance in July.

To sum up, SMM expects the national mine operation rate to be 66.4% in July, up 0.4% from the previous month and 11.7% lower than the same period last year.

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